The Changing Faces of a New World Order

The ongoing war in the Middle East is having wide ranging implications as far as the changing nature of the existing world order is concerned. It no longer will remain the same.

Pranay Kumar Shome

In the realm of international relations, certain events have contributed to seismic shifts in the nature of the world order. The two World Wars and the Cold War in the 20^th century, the 9/11 attacks on American soil—followed by America’s War on Terror campaign in the first decade of the 21^st century— changed the very perception of how state actors dealt with each other in different realms. In the third decade of this century, one such paradigm shifting event is the ongoing Israel-Iran-United States war in the Middle East.

The West is not only making a mockery of international law, but their actions also represent something far more insidious—might is right

Launched on February 28 by America and Israel via operations Epic Fury and Lion’s Roar, the attacks marked a definite shift in how the global communities dealt with each other as far as the issues of economy, defense and energy security are concerned. Today, we are witnessing not just the shifting sands of a new world order but are also becoming recipients of a new yet more uncertain world.

A thorough analysis of this emerging new world order merits attention.

Hydrocarbon resources are back

Ever since a new climate change adaptation and mitigation regime took shape more than fifty years ago, humanity has been at a crossroads. It had to deal with a simple yet tough question—should it be business as usual? Or must we take hard steps to save us and the planet?

Since then, the result has seen the world exhibiting a decisive shift in favor of clean energy sources on one hand, and a change in the behavioral attitudes of communities by adopting a lifestyle that embraces a low carbon emission pathway. The shift in favor of the former assumed particular importance as countries around the world, both in the Global North and the Global South, have embraced clean energy in varying forms and manifestations.

However, this war has brought hydrocarbon resources right back into the energy policy matrix of countries. America’s and Israel’s illegal targeting of Iran’s oil facilities, followed by Iran’s blockading the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a global energy and economic crisis. This crisis has been characterized by several critical pressures—

• Skyrocketing crude oil prices are exerting pressure on the economies of different countries;
• Inflationary pressures are mounting domestically for different countries;
• A severe threat to global food security is emerging owing to a lack of movement of ships carrying chemical fertilizers needed to enhance the fertility as well as productivity of different crops.

This energy crisis is reflective of how no matter how much importance clean energy sources acquire in the energy matrix of countries, hydrocarbon resources, which have been the mainstay of the world economy at least since the 19^th century onwards, will continue to remain so, at least for the foreseeable future.

Reinforcement of the Law of the Jungle

The Liberal Internationalist School of thought argued that with increasing mutual interdependence among countries in the realms of finance and trade, the law of the jungle where the Hobbesian dictum of “war of all against all” is the norm will no longer apply. This war has proven them wrong.

Operating in accordance with the theory of preemptive deterrence, Israel and America’s naked display of aggression over seemingly “potent threats” from Iran appears to be nothing but an attempt by these state actors to gloss over their own terrible track record in the region. This includes Israel denying the Palestinian people the right to have a state of their own for the past eighty years. Furthermore, in the name of fighting terrorism, America illegally invaded Iraq in 2003; In addition to this, America ended up sowing the seeds of chaos in Syria, Iran, and several other countries in the Middle East, turning the region into a tinderbox.

This, therefore, is reflective of how the West is not only making a mockery of international law, but their actions also represent something far more insidious—might is right. This sends a dangerous message—international law will be selectively invoked when it suits the national interests of the West and will be wantonly violated when they deem it fit.

Rupturing of Global Commons

The global politico-economic architecture over the decades relied on a consensus—no matter what happens, supply chains and supply lines will never be put in peril. America’s and Israel’s campaign against Iran and the ensuing blockade have put that global consensus under serious strain.

Just like the Strait of Hormuz, other vital continental and maritime chokepoints can be put in peril in the future by the West seeking to satisfy its imperialist ambitions. Not only will this undermine the prospects of global economic growth, but it will also undo years of hard work achieved through the painstaking efforts of countries and civil society organizations in fulfilling the aims outlined in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), followed by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), thereby unleashing a multifaceted catastrophe across the interconnected systems of global trade, development, and poverty alleviation.

The Need for a New Paradigm

In this perilous situation, the world needs a healing touch—the Global South, in this context, needs to step up to the occasion and not only hold the imperialists accountable but also ensure that a new, inclusive, just, and egalitarian world order is crafted for both us as well as for our future generations. We must act now; otherwise, we will lose the vital time that this crisis has afforded us.

Pranay Kumar Shome, a research analyst who is a PhD candidate at Mahatma Gandhi Central University, Bihar, India