Tehran not only exercises dominion over the Strait of Hormuz but also commands the region’s strategic depth. Consequently, Europe’s energy security and the economic stability of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are inextricably linked to avoiding tensions with Iran.
This article, through an examination of the latest strategic analyses on this subject, elucidates why disregarding Iran constitutes economic self-destruction for Europe and a source of instability for the region, and why Tehran represents the vital artery of this equation.
In the Energy Dimension: Although Europe has reduced its dependence on Russian gas, this shift in consumption has not eliminated risks for the continent; rather, these risks have been reconfigured.
A report by the Atlantic Council think tank, titled “The Eastern Mediterranean Cannot Replace Russian or Persian Gulf Gas,” explicitly states that Eastern Mediterranean gas “cannot replace Russian gas at scale. Its value lies in enabling flexibility, diversification, and responsiveness during periods of market stress.”
This implies that Europe remains dependent on the Persian Gulf for its baseline energy supply and cannot fully rely on alternative options.
A report by the German Council on Foreign Relations, titled “Europe in the Middle East Dilemma,” presents alarming statistics: “Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption—roughly 20 million barrels per day—plus a significant share of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, transits the Strait of Hormuz.”
As recent developments in the war launched by the United States and the Zionist regime against Iran have demonstrated, any tension with Iran that leads to disruption in Hormuz would directly obstruct Europe’s respiratory artery. Therefore, Iran, as an energy chokepoint, possesses leverage extending beyond military power, placing European continental security under its influence, with no alternative route to circumvent this geopolitical reality.
From the Perspective of International Economics: Stability in the Persian Gulf states is also unattainable without engagement with Iran. The aggressive war waged by the United States and the Zionist regime has imposed high costs on the economies of these countries, placing them in a difficult position.
A Foreign Policy In Focus report titled “GCC Economies Face War Challenges,” quoting Sheik Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani, notes that the Gulf Cooperation Council “possesses a radical, unconventional, and highly effective tool for imposing an end to hostilities: the collective and complete halt of all oil and gas exports.”
This indicates that even traditional US allies are wary of the costs of war and that their interests hinge upon peace.
Furthermore, a report by the Chatham House think tank, titled “What Do Houthi Attacks on Israel Mean for the Iran War?”, warns that Iran’s strategy of activating the Axis of Resistance carries the risk of expanding a conflict that is already destabilizing. This will have significant implications for regional stability, global trade, and humanitarian conditions.”
This signifies that Iran possesses the capacity to raise the costs of war for critical economic and military infrastructure across the Persian Gulf region. Therefore, the economic stability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE hinges on managing tensions with Tehran rather than confronting them, and any war would entail devastating consequences for the entire region.
Europe’s Structural Weakness and Security Dependence: Amidst these dynamics, Europe has developed structural weaknesses and a security dependence on the United States that have diminished its role in international relations. The report “Europe in the Middle East Dilemma” explicitly states: “Europe acts neither as a unified peace actor nor as a pole of power counterbalancing the United States. The Union primarily functions as a security-oriented crisis manager.”
Through unilateral actions, the United States has kept Europe in a state of ambiguity and sacrificed its interests. The report emphasizes that following US actions in Venezuela and West Asia, “discontent regarding unilateral military actions and their consequences for Europe is growing.”
This dependence has diminished Europe’s role on the international stage and transformed it into a follower of Washington’s policies. This situation has yielded nothing but rising inflation and public debt for European nations.
Europe now faces the risk of escalating regional conflict and tension, rising energy prices, and cyberattacks against its critical infrastructure, all of which threaten its economic resilience and demonstrate that blind adherence to US policies comes at a steep cost.
Europe’s Remaining Leverage: Nevertheless, Europe still possesses leverage to prevent the escalation of this all-out war, which could benefit both regional stability and Iran. Through active diplomacy and the utilization of energy leverage, Europe could alter the equation and persuade the United States to retreat.
As noted in the article “GCC Economies Face War Challenges,” Gulf countries are currently “diversifying their economic and defense relations and moving away from exclusive reliance on the United States.” By aligning with this trend and recognizing Iran’s role, Europe could prevent the region from sinking into an endless quagmire of war while safeguarding its own interests.
The article “Europe in the Middle East Dilemma” suggests that European policy should “focus on containing conflict escalation and securing the necessary economic prerequisites for European national economies.”
This implies that Europe’s interests necessitate pursuing de-escalation with Iran rather than aligning with the United States. Iran is the region’s vital artery, and any attempt to exclude it from energy security equations is doomed to failure.
Conclusion: Ultimately, sustainable security for Europe and the Persian Gulf lies not under the shadow of sanctions and war, but in accepting geopolitical realities and engaging constructively with Iran as the region’s dominant power—a reality Europe must acknowledge.
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