Some European experts, however, believe that the experience of the June war and Iran’s deterrence capabilities have turned any adventurism into a high-risk decision that would entail heavy costs and unpredictable repercussions.
Israel began the 12-day war on June 13, 2025 by assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists and senior military officials, and striking nuclear and military sites, as well as residential areas in the capital Tehran and elsewhere. The US later joined the war by bombing three major nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Iran responded to the act of aggression by missile and drone strikes inside Israel, as well as a major US air base in Qatar.
In an interview with IRNA published on Sunday, Steve Bell, a British researcher and member of the Stop the War Coalition, said that the June war demonstrated to the US that Iran “can effectively retaliate.”
“There is no doubt that the ability of Iran to reorganize its forces after the initial unprovoked attack, and to subsequently inflict severe damage on Israeli installations, has given the US reason to be careful,” he said, adding that the Iranian counter-strikes breaking Israeli air defenses was a “great shock” to the regime and Israeli society which had become accustomed to the idea of its “invulnerability.”
“If Israel experienced considerable damage in June 2025, then clearly any US installation in any country in the region is vulnerable,” Bell said while commenting on the consequences of a possible new attack on Iran, which he said could lead to “some form of regional escalation of military action.”
There are domestic implications for Trump as well, he added, arguing that any new anti-Iran attack would go “against the wishes of the MAGA base who want an end to wars with unclear outcomes,” while the general public in the US reject further military action against Iran.
“The Quinnipiac University poll on January 14 showed that 70% were against, compared to just 18% in favour of military action against Iran. In the year of mid-term elections, actions against Iran could have a serious impact inside the US as well as in West Asia,” the British researcher noted.
Iran is no pushover
Former British MP Chris Williamson echoed the same comments. He said if a new war is waged against Iran, “there would likely be significant military consequences for both the US and Israel” as “Iran would be no pushover.”
“I suspect that following the experience of the 12-day war last year, Iran will be much better prepared in terms of air defenses, and their retaliatory capabilities were revealed when they responded to Israel’s attack. Next time the response would almost certainly be much more devastating.”
He also noted that the US’s Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed to West Asia has the capability to strike Iran, but their aircraft carrier and other shipping would be “incredibly vulnerable to strikes by Iranian missiles.”
On the consequences of a new military attack against Iran for other countries in the region, Williamson described the repercussions as “potentially catastrophic,” because “the economic impact would likely crash their economies and the potential for military consequence is also significant.”
New Iran attack ‘a political suicide’ for Trump
Alastair Warren Crooke, a former British diplomat and senior MI6 figure, described any US adventurism against Iran as “a political suicide” that would harm the Trump administration in the mid-term elections. He also cited the heavy blows inflicted by Iran on Israel during the 12-day war, which he said prompted Tel Aviv to appeal to Trump for a ceasefire.
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