The looming military confrontation between the United States and Iran increasingly appears not as a sudden escalation but as the outcome of a long-term and deliberate strategy capable of triggering a large-scale regional catastrophe.
Seth Ferris
Meanwhile, Turkey is building up troops on the border with Iran, and Iran has announced military exercises in the Gulf of Hormuz. This should come as no surprise, considering all that is going on in the world, domestic problems in the US, and the Western world teetering on an economic crisis.
A US-Israeli strike on Iran triggers not a limited campaign but a larger regional war that rapidly spreads like a wildfire
In short, if the United States launches strikes on Iran, the worst-case outcome is not a short, contained conflict but a multi-front regional war that rapidly escapes Washington’s control.
This is such a tragedy. My thoughts and feelings are with the Iranians. What many warmongers don’t realize are the repercussions of any action, even if victory is declared. Things will soon be unsettled in Europe too; one only needs to look at what’s happening in the Baltic Sea.
We may still have 4-5 months of peace, but the situation is getting worse by the day. It should come as no surprise that much-touted peace deals, such as between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the resulting transport corridors, are proving the “real” intention when one reads the latest headline, Azerbaijan eyes aiding Israel against Iran.
No one should be shocked, in retrospect, by the way the joint 2025 strikes were conducted by long-range bombers traveling from the US. Historical, diplomatic, and security reports have indicated that the U.S. has provided significant military aid to Azerbaijan to help protect its infrastructure against Iran, including the funding of coastal radar sites and provision of patrol boats. In the context of broader US-Iran tensions, Azerbaijan has frequently been cited as a strategic location for monitoring Iran.
It is no secret that Azerbaijan is Israel’s most strategic partner in the region, mostly because it serves as Israel’s main oil source, on and off the books. Iceberg Effect Dating back to 2009, a supposed leaked U.S. diplomatic cable from 2009 quoted Aliyev, who succeeded his father in 2003, describing relations with Israel as “like an iceberg, nine tenths … below the surface.”
However, helping to wage war on Iran is, however, something his aides flatly deny; wider consequences would also be hard to calculate from military action in a region where Azerbaijan’s “frozen” conflict with Armenia is just one of many elements of volatility and where major powers from Turkey, Iran, and Russia to the United States, Western Europe, and even China are competing for influence.
US–Iran confrontation involving Israel and Azerbaijan
What is happening is not a knee-jerk reaction. The renewed drumbeat of US–Iran confrontation comes not as a sudden escalation but as the culmination of long-signaled strategic planning now being publicly laundered through selective media coverage. The reported movement of a US carrier task force toward the Middle East is presented less as a response to Iranian actions than as a familiar prelude to war—one that simultaneously obscures mounting domestic pressures inside the United States, including political unrest, ICE-related controversies, and looming financial instability.
Beyond the immediate US–Iran axis, the crisis is situated within a broader and increasingly volatile geopolitical chessboard stretching from the Baltic Sea to the South Caucasus. It should be apparent that any military action against Iran would have cascading consequences for Europe and Eurasia, destabilizing regions already strained and accelerating existing fault lines.
Central to this analysis is Azerbaijan’s understated but strategic role. One must only revisit long-standing reports of deep, largely covert cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel. Against this backdrop, recent headlines suggesting Baku may assist Israel in a confrontation with Iran are framed not as aberrations, but as the logical extension of years of military aid, intelligence cooperation, and infrastructure support quietly facilitated by Washington.
While Azerbaijani officials publicly deny any intention to participate in a war against Iran, the denial itself underscores the delicacy of the arrangement. With recent conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh and competing interests from Turkey, Russia, Iran, the US, and even China converging in the region, any escalation risks triggering unpredictable and far-reaching consequences.
Final Reckoning!
Ultimately, the piece casts the looming US–Iran showdown as either a final reckoning or yet another strategically convenient distraction—one whose true costs would be borne not by the main protagonists.
The US appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. So, if no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, then what are the possible outcomes?
The best case scenario of planners is that US air and naval forces conduct limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij unit — a paramilitary force under the control of the IRGC — ballistic missile launch and storage sites, as well as Iran’s nuclear program, and trigger a popular uprising against the government.
It should be remembered that Western military intervention in both Iraq and Libya did not bring a smooth transition to democracy. Although it ended brutal dictatorships in both cases, it ushered in years of chaos and bloodshed. Syria, which is claimed to have conducted its own revolution, overthrowing President Bashar Al-Assad in 2024, has fared no better.
Regional Blowback
On the other hand, the worst-case outcome is not a short, contained conflict but a multi-front regional war that rapidly escapes Washington’s control. It will not be good for some members of NATO. They know they are next if Iran falls. Netanyahu has pretty much said so—at least in terms of Turkey.
Iran retaliates asymmetrically and immediately. US bases across Iraq, Syria, the Gulf states, and possibly Azerbaijan are hit with missile barrages and drone swarms. Hezbollah opens a full northern front against Israel, dwarfing previous clashes. Israeli cities and infrastructure come under sustained attack, prompting massive retaliation against Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria.
The Strait of Hormuz becomes the critical flashpoint. Iran blocks it with a combination of mines, fast attack boats, drones, and missiles, cutting off roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Energy prices spike overnight, triggering a global economic shock. Fragile economies—especially in Europe—tip toward recession or worse, compounding existing financial instability.
Inside Iran, rather than collapsing, the regime hardens and the populace closes ranks. Nationalism overrides internal dissent. Any hope of democratic transition as wished by the West soon evaporates as the population rallies against foreign attack. Civilian casualties mount, and repression intensifies. Iran formally abandons remaining nuclear constraints and accelerates weaponization, concluding that regime survival now depends on deterrence.
The conflict widens
It will not be necessary for Russia and China to intervene directly, but they will provide intelligence, weapons, and diplomatic cover, turning Iran into a meat-grinding proxy theater of operation. All the while, Turkey will be maneuvering opportunistically. Azerbaijan’s quiet alignment with Israel inflames tensions along Iran’s northern border and risks dragging the South Caucasus into open conflict, reigniting frozen wars and destabilizing Armenia.
Meanwhile, the US finds itself trapped in another open-ended Middle Eastern war—one with no clear exit strategy, massive deficient financial costs, buttressed with ever-rising domestic unrest, and diminishing international support. Terror attacks against Western interests increase worldwide as Iran activates long-dormant networks.
In conclusion
A US-Israeli strike on Iran triggers not a limited campaign but a larger regional war that rapidly spreads like a wildfire, closing the straits of Hormuz, spreading retaliatory attacks across the globe, collapsing major economies, and unleashing nuclear Armageddon.
Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs
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