The Gulf’s Energy Security Is Under Fire: What Comes Next?

Iran’s strikes have exposed the Gulf’s energy security as a strategic Achilles’ heel, while the US-Iran confrontation is turning the region into a wider battlefield. As American protection increasingly carries the risk of regional blowback, the Gulf states face a stark choice: retaliate, de-escalate, or pursue strategic autonomy.

Aleena Im

The Gulf’s New Vulnerability

The Gulf’s economic lifeline has become its strategic Achilles’ heel. Although the Middle East has always been volatile (thanks to the US), the Gulf monarchies were considered to be one of the safest destinations in the world with respect to business, investment, and tourism. In spite of the severe water shortage, the Gulf states have created an environment where their energy security is considered indispensable.

Initially, it was considered that the Gulf’s only valuable assets included its oil and gas reserves, which ultimately increased the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. But the recent US-Iran conflict clarified one thing: energy, water, and infrastructure that keep modern Gulf societies alive are indeed vulnerable to external threats, which could undermine their decades-long setup of higher standards of living.

Iran’s Expanding Target Set

From Europe to the Middle East, the American presence has become a burden for everyone

Given the growing instability in the Middle East region, coupled with constant ceasefire breaches by Americans, the distinction between military and civil infrastructure is becoming increasingly difficult. The first attack took place on July 19, 2026, when Iran struck both counterforce and countervalue sites in Gulf countries. Attacks were carried out in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. According to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), they have hit the United States hard by striking its military bases in Kuwait and Jordan. Furthermore, according to the Iranian army, it attacked a US ammunition storage facility at Camp al-Adiri and air defense radar systems at Ali Al Salem Air Base, where US forces are stationed.

Why Is Iran Targeting Gulf Infrastructure?

The game of reciprocity has begun. The US recently announced it would hit Iranian economic infrastructure throughout the country, cutting its arms and ammunition supply chains. This includes key energy and transport networks – including critical bridges. While giving an interview to Fox News last week, President Donald Trump said, “Next week it gets really bad for them. We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.” And the US did what he said. The United States bombed areas within Iran’s provinces of Hormozgan and Khuzestan and Qeshm Island. Later on, the Iranian Nuclear Energy Organization stated that the United States’ strikes had affected the Darkhovin nuclear power plant, which was under construction, and termed the attacks a violation of international laws.

US forces also bombed bridges located in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province, resulting in the deaths of seven persons. The bridges were critical for Bandar Abbas, the primary port in Iran. More US bombings led to the destruction of a tower in Chabahar Port in the Gulf of Oman that US forces alleged was being used by the IRGC to conduct attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Other targets include key electrical infrastructure and the Iranshahr Airport. In return for that, Iran is now going after energy infrastructure in the Gulf countries. As the US is expanding the scope of the war, so are the Iranians, giving a hard time to the Americans.

Escalate to De-escalate — or the Road to a Wider War?

A very important question here is that with both the US and Iran expanding the scope of the war, will it head towards a major war, or is it something else? To think that the US would bomb Iran and completely ruin it is simply a foolish idea. What the US actually wants is to create a situation where Iranians are pressured to bow down and come to the negotiation table with a weaker position. This is known as the ‘escalate to deescalate’ situation. And to be honest, what Iran is doing right now is just imitating the US.

The recent attacks by Iran on the Gulf’s energy infrastructure were also meant to escalate the situation so that regional countries must speed up their efforts to de-escalate the situation. That’s why even though the US is aggressively attacking Iranian infrastructure, Iran is somehow escalating the situation in a controlled manner, upholding the international norms and Muslim brotherhood. No doubt, the desalination plants are the Gulf’s lifeline, but Iran would never pursue such a harsh policy, as it could draw serious public resentment throughout the region. Today there is only one Gaza; tomorrow the entire Middle East could become the same.

Will the Gulf States Retaliate?

The next important query is whether Gulf nations, in particular Jordan, Bahrain, or Kuwait, will retaliate or not. Its answer lies in the fact that the Gulf countries are following the policy of restraint and engagement. As per Al Jazeera, Qatar has denounced Iranian attacks against the Gulf’s critical infrastructure but has also requested both the US and Iran return to diplomacy. This shows the Gulf’s fear against Iran. Because one thing is quite clear: if the Gulf somehow enters the war, the US will not be there to help them. Americans will not sacrifice themselves for the sake of US-Gulf partnership.

This is the only reason we are witnessing growing regional minilateralism, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and now Kuwait forming defense pacts with Pakistan. The Gulf’s retaliation could range from public condemnation of attacks to supporting Israeli or American aims in the region. The Gulf alone cannot confront Iran. Iran also knows the fact that Gulf countries won’t start a full-scale war against it; therefore, it’s just forcing them to understand the very fact that American presence on their territories is only causing instability and chaos in the region.

United States: The Main Cause of the Crisis

The sole cause of volatility in the region is the United States. And under Trump 2.0, it has become more unpredictable with no clear objectives or end goal in the war. Simply put, it’s neither the Iranian nuclear or ballistic program nor the Gulf’s resentment towards Iran; it’s the American presence in the region that has caused instability there. The resentment against America’s presence in the region has grown to an extent that even the US’s closest ally, Israel, has asked it to remove its jet fleet from its territory. Iran’s continuous efforts have somewhat borne fruit, such that a wave has already begun in the region, silently chanting that “Americans must be expelled from the region.”

Conclusion

The war against Iran has become the US’s epic mistake, which has not only humiliated it in front of its rivals, but its allies are also now diversifying their partnerships. From Europe to the Middle East, the American presence has become a burden for everyone. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open before the war, has become a cage for the US. The US is simply not getting any window open to get out of the war. Gulf countries must now take a firm and clear stance in this regard. It’s the only way Hormuz can be reopened and regional tensions can be downgraded.

Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs