The Middle East’s Great Strategic Realignment Has Begun

The US–Israeli attacks on Iran have accelerated the Middle East’s transition from a US-led security order to an increasingly multipolar regional architecture, reshaping alliances and regional power dynamics.

Abbas Hashemite

From a US-Led Order to a Multipolar Security Architecture

The US-Israeli joint attacks on Iran have significantly transformed the regional security dynamics. Traditionally, the region’s security architecture has been built around a U.S.-led framework in which security commitments and military support underpinned regional stability. The emerging regional security architecture is rapidly reducing its reliance on the historic US-led security framework, which includes bilateral and multilateral alliances, and is moving towards a multipolar architecture in which all major players align with global powers to secure their interests.

The region’s emerging strategic architecture is likely to be shaped by four interrelated factors: the outcome of the conflict with Iran, the imperative of regional stabilization, the expansion of mini-lateral coalitions, and the growing adoption of strategic engagement by regional states. This evolving regional architecture continues to be influenced by three interrelated dynamics: the recalibration of US commitments to regional allies, the necessity to safeguard economic stability, and enduring systemic regional conflicts. Regional powers, in pursuit of these objectives, are establishing independent defense and diplomatic mechanisms.

Emerging Regional Security Blocs and Strategic Realignments

The US image as a security provider and a superior military has been shattered globally. The Arab countries are now looking for alternative defense and security providers

One of the most significant developments in this regard is the emergence of regional security blocs. Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have developed a new quadrilateral security and consulting arrangement to defuse tensions in the Middle East through Islamabad’s active diplomacy. This quadrilateral mechanism is attempting to ensure regional peace and stability, counter the regional expansion of the US-Israel-Iran war, and pursue international recognition of Palestine’s statehood through diplomacy and negotiations.

The effectiveness of this arrangement is put under intense scrutiny after the renewed skirmishes between the United States and Iran. The success of this quadrilateral mechanism now relies on preventing these skirmishes from turning into an all-out war, which is an uphill task. However, even if this new alliance fails in this regard, it will continue to play a critical role in future regional conflicts. Many other regional powers, including Oman, Qatar, and Iran, also seek to end the Western hegemony in the Middle East.

The Abraham Accords and the Fragmentation of Regional Politics

Another major transition in the regional dynamics is the formation of protection dynamics, triggered by the Abraham Accords. Intended to normalize formal diplomatic relations between Israel and different Arab nations, these accords started with the normalization of relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain in 2020. Morocco and Sudan also joined the Abraham Accords in 2024. Trump 2.0 also seeks to expand these accords to include several other nations, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon, and Pakistan. Kazakhstan and Somaliland also joined these accords later on. Under these accords, not only were formal diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab states established, but a secret protective umbrella was also provided to some states, such as the UAE.

In return, the Arab states got some benefits, but the core issue of movement towards a two-state solution of the Palestine issue and an end to the Israeli aggression against the Palestinians remains unresolved. Despite criticism from the Arab and Muslim population over the lack of progress on these issues, these accords led to significant developments in defense, energy, technology, culture, and trade collaboration between Israel and the Arab states. The UAE got a secret protection umbrella from Israel through these accords. During the recent Iranian attacks on the UAE, the world witnessed the Israeli Air Defense system active against the Iranian strikes. Israel and the UAE have also agreed to establish a joint fund to develop advanced weapon systems to counter missile and drone threats.

Consequently, the Arab unity fractured, providing Israel greater impunity and legitimacy to continue its occupation and genocide in Palestine. The evolving rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the signatories of the Abraham Accords is poised to influence regional dynamics, with significant implications for the balance of power, defense cooperation, and geostrategic influence of major powers, including China, Russia, the US, Pakistan, Turkey, and India.

Strategic and Economic Implications of the Conflict

Another major impact of this war will be on the Strait of Hormuz. It would decide the future governance and status of the Strait. The ongoing conflict between the two sides will be decisive for the future of the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed escalation between the US and Iran indicates that the global economy will have a stressful future, especially for third-world countries. Neither is capable of permanently holding its influence in the Strait without a negotiated framework. Moreover, the regional states will attempt to bypass the Strait in the future, either by enhancing outside oil storage facilities or by laying pipelines to transport oil.

This war also diversified global alliances. The success of Iranian retaliation raised significant questions over the US security guarantees to the Arab world. Despite spending billions of dollars, the US defense systems were unable to protect the Arab states from cheap and low-technology Iranian missiles and drones. The US image as a security provider and a superior military has been shattered globally. The Arab countries are now looking for alternative defense and security providers. China, Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan are among the best options for the Arab countries to sign defense and security agreements.

To establish a long-term peace in the Middle East, the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders is mandatory. Moreover, the Arab states need to establish a regional multilateral institution, like ASEAN, SAARC, or SCO, to resolve intra-Arab conflicts. Moreover, they need to unite against the Israeli aggression in Palestinian territory. Otherwise, the regional situation will continue to remain volatile. The ongoing US-Iran war has entirely changed the regional security dynamics of the Middle East and paved the way for increased influence of China, Russia, and middle powers regionally and globally.

Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist