By Al Ahed Staff, Agencies
The World Bank has warned that global energy prices are expected to rise significantly in 2026, projecting a 24% surge due to what it describes as major supply disruptions linked to the US-“Israeli” war on Iran.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook released on Tuesday, the bank said commodity prices could climb further if conflict in the region escalates or if supply disruptions last longer than anticipated.
Under its baseline scenario, the bank expects shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually recover to near pre-war levels by October, although it cautioned that risks remain strongly skewed toward higher prices.
Overall commodity prices are forecast to increase by 16% in 2026, driven by rising energy, fertilizer, and key metals costs.
Oil prices have continued to rise amid efforts to end the conflict and ongoing restrictions affecting vessels linked to Iran’s adversaries. The report notes that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping have created what it calls the largest oil supply shock on record.
Brent crude prices were reported to be more than 50% higher in mid-April compared to the start of the year, with forecasts averaging $86 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025. In a more severe scenario, prices could reach as high as $115 per barrel if damage to energy infrastructure continues and exports recover slowly.
Fertilizer prices are also expected to rise sharply, with urea costs projected to increase by 60%, contributing to a 31% overall rise in fertilizer prices in 2026.
The World Bank further projected inflation in developing economies to average 5.1% in 2026, higher than previous estimates, with the potential to rise further if the conflict continues.
In the United States, gasoline prices have reached a four-year high, with average regular fuel prices rising to $4.18 per gallon, marking the sharpest daily increase in over a month.
The report also notes that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for about 20% of global oil and gas shipments, has been heavily restricted since the start of the US-“Israeli” war on Iran in February. The waterway is currently under strict control, with only civilian vessels permitted under special conditions, contributing to ongoing global supply disruptions and economic pressure.
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