The Trump administration’s policy toward Iran — accompanied by mixed signals and increased pressure — is leading to a diplomatic deadlock, raising the risk of a large-scale conflict, and undermining confidence in American diplomacy.
Henry Kamens
Mixed messages, grandiose public claims, and a naval blockade that undercuts talks have turned peaceful diplomacy into a farce. The result: US credibility is shredded, negotiations are stalled, and a fragile cease-fire is teetering on the brink of collapse—exactly the kind of mess that could make a short war drag into a strategic disaster.
“Bad So Far” vs. “Worse to Come”
This approach ignores the principles of effective negotiation outlined in Getting to Yes, a staple in diplomatic training
Applying this to Trump’s foreign policy regarding Iran, especially the prospect of introducing ground troops, the analogy suggests that facing “death” in the movie scenario could be framed as a devastating regional conflict, immense human suffering, and a significant blow to US strategic interests and global stability, mirroring the inevitability and severity of the movie character’s fate, but on a geopolitical scale
The “worse to come” option exposes the potential for a full-scale ground war, followed by the crash of the world’s economy. Foreign wars have historically not worked out well for the United States. The option of “declaring victory and leaving with Trump’s proverbial tail between his legs” may be the best option for the world in general and the US in particular.
Even if a US military victory could be achieved, it would be nominal or fleeting, followed either by a difficult withdrawal, or a prolonged guerilla war, much like the Russian character in the movie who was facing either a quick death or prolonged torture.
Here are just some of Trump’s failures so far, domestic ones too:
1) A failed trade war with China
2) Annexation threats towards Greenland that reaped only indignation and ended in backtracking
3) Pressure on Canada that led to Mark Carney’s victory and brought Ottawa closer to Beijing
4) Congress’s decision to limit the White House’s ability to withdraw troops from Europe
5) The Supreme Court ruling that overturned the tariff war
6) His humiliation in ‘I’ ran, and it is growing!
7) And of course – the Epstein files
8) Relations with NATO being strained to the point of breaking
If history is any indication of things to come, the combination of bad timing, mixed messages, and coercive measures has so far sabotaged prospects for meaningful US–Iran talks in Pakistan and increased the danger the ceasefire will collapse—and by design!
Meanwhile, Trump is crashing and burning not only in terms of foreign policy, but now has fired another woman from his cabinet, on the domestic front. The first to go, on March 5, was ex-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Then, less than a month later, Trump ousted former Attorney General Pam Bondi. Today, April 21, 2026, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer announced her resignation. The knives also seem out for Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence.
Never Ending War as a GREAT Distraction
So now he needs a great distraction, if not a victory in Iran, perhaps one in Cuba or some even greater distraction, to dial down the heat. The failure to negotiate without any desire for a good outcome, in at least to go through the motions, is most revealing. As of April 21, all efforts to negotiate face-to-face peace between the US and Iran remained unclear amid confusion over the US negotiators’ plans and uncertainty over whether Tehran would agree to take part.
Iran, with good justification, questions the good faith and real intentions of the US to come to the table with any actual intention of ending the war, as the US only wants to show to a domestic audience that it is the “shifty Iranians” who are spoiling a fair a and lasting deal.
Finger Pointing but the truth is clear!
Despite repeated public claims of progress, US-led efforts to broker a ceasefire and broader peace talks have so far failed to produce a durable breakthrough, or any breakthrough at all. Both sides continue to accuse each other of violating the fragile truce, while fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. If diplomacy continues to stall, that alone will stand as a significant policy failure, regardless of how either side seeks to frame it politically.
Crying Uncle!
It does not help with Trump making public statements of no compromise until a “deal” with the Iranians is about to happen, and how the Iranians are begging to negotiate does not help, which undermines trust and any semblance of legitimate leverage in the process.
It is almost certain that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are involved in any official negotiations for the purpose of making sure that no deals are made. They are most certainly Israeli assets and know who is buttering their bread.
Steve Witkoff | U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East
Witkoff is the quintessential Trump’s “closest buddy”—a billionaire real estate developer with zero prior diplomatic experience but too close for comfort to the President. Now he is tasked with handling the most radioactive files in the administration, including the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Iran nuclear standoff. The fact that he is the face of “deal-making” is nothing but a sick joke. In his world, a negotiation is only successful if the other side folds completely.
Jared Kushner | Special Envoy for Peace Missions
Perhaps one of the few, if not the only, close members of the family that Trump can trust, he has played a shadow-diplomacy role for years; Kushner was officially named Special Envoy earlier this year. Having brokered the Abraham Accords, he is the administration’s ideological anchor in the region. His role in the Islamabad talks is to ensure that any potential “breakthrough” aligns with the administration’s broader vision—one that prioritizes strategic alignment with traditional allies, demands of donors, and this leaves little room for Tehran’s current red lines. In other words, he is there to do Netanyahu’s bidding.
To the administration’s detractors, these two aren’t negotiators so much as “enforcers” and Israeli assets. They have extensive private business ties to the region, and see eye to eye with Trump, and everything has a payoff. It is clear, and even Trump has signaled that the purpose of the Islamabad talks isn’t to find a middle ground but to dictate the terms of surrender. If their goal is to ensure “no deals are made” unless they are entirely on Washington’s terms, they are the perfect hitmen for the job.
It is a similar situation to the Trump administration’s approach to the so-called peace talks regarding Ukraine, where the losing side seems to think it can dictate terms to the side that is winning.
Diplomatic optimism fades
Any veneer of optimism around U.S.-led peace efforts with Iran is quickly washing away. Progress has given way to entrenched gridlock, by design, and the fragile, frequently violated ceasefire looks less like a path to peace than a temporary pause in conflict.
Islamabad demonstrates the divide between Tehran and Washington is widening, and with JD Vance just walking away. Disputes over Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz have hardened into non-negotiable positions. Tehran refuses to negotiate under a U.S. naval blockade, blackmail, while President Donald Trump insists he faces “no pressure whatsoever” to ease sanctions—further undermining incentives for compromise.
The result is a volatile mix of mixed messaging and saber-rattling, pointing to a broader breakdown in negotiations. With the ceasefire fraying—including in Lebanon—and Islamabad talks weighed down by unrealistic preconditions, renewed conflict appears increasingly likely. What the administration frames as resolve instead reflects stagnation, raising the risk of wider instability and economic fallout.
Getting to Yes!
Critics argue this approach ignores the principles of effective negotiation outlined in Getting to Yes, a staple in diplomatic training. Its focus on mutual gains, trust, and interests over rigid positions stands in stark contrast to current U.S. strategy—one that appears to prioritize pressure over progress.
Trump and his backers want to keep up the “maximum pressure,” and without clear off-ramps. Thus, Washington has engineered conditions for assured failure and painted itself into a corner. The result is a chaotic, fatal cocktail of mixed messaging and saber-rattling that shows a total breakdown in diplomacy.
What Donald Trump and his team, including the official US State Department, are practicing under the guise of diplomacy falls face flat in terms of making a win-win deal and does not even come anywhere close to leading down the proverbial road of good intentions.
Henry Kamens, columnist and expert on Central Asia and the Caucasus
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