The visit of the President of Turkey to Iraq was carried out while in recent years, especially since 2019, we have seen many Turkish attacks on northern Iraq under the pretext of fighting terrorism. Each of these attacks could cause a “crisis” in the relations between the two countries.
Strengthening economic, security, and energy cooperation were the three main topics of the talks between the leaders of the two countries in Baghdad. Last year, the Iraqi government launched a 17-billion-dollar project to develop overland trade routes and transport goods; the aim was to connect the port of Faw in the south of the country with Turkish territory, which was discussed between the Turkish and Iraqi authorities.
It is worth mentioning that in the last ten years, the share of Turkey’s exports to Iraq in general exports has always been 5% or higher. The value of Turkish exports to Iraq is 15 billion dollars, which will reach 20 billion dollars with the completion of the “Development Road” project in 2030.
Several goals can be identified and noted regarding Erdoğan’s visit to Iraq and the expansion of cooperation between the two countries. Although security goals and agendas and intelligence cooperation are highlighted in Turkey’s media and political circles, this issue is of secondary importance compared to “economic, energy, and transportation” issues.
Iraq is important for Turkey in two ways: First, it is a “strong point” for Turkey regarding economy and energy. Iraq, which has half the population of Turkey, is very rich in terms of energy resources, which can be a good option to improve part of Turkey’s economic problems, which is actually Erdogan’s “Achilles Heel” and one of the main principles of the Justice and Development Party and the country’s foreign policy. From this point of view, Turkey, not in the region but in the world, cannot find a better country than Iraq in terms of “easy and low-cost” access to underground resources and its economy.
Secondly, Iraq is one of the main and important pillars of the joint transportation project called “Development Road” of Turkey, which will enable the land route connecting the Persian Gulf countries to Europe by creating a 1200 km rail and road network from Basra Port to Mersin Port. This project, known as the “Dry Canal” in Iraq, was named the “Change Development Road Project” during the meeting between Erdogan and Mohammad Shia al-Sudani in March 2024. This project, in which Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are present as partners and financiers, is scheduled to be implemented by 2030.
Improving bilateral relations between Turkey and Iraq and expanding regional cooperation are among the main “requirements” for advancing and realizing the mentioned project. In this regard, knowing that despite the tension in relations with Iraq, it is not possible to complete the Development Road Project as the main priority of Ankara in the region, Erdogan put on agenda facilitation and acceleration of the implementation of this grand plan and, resolve differences with the Iraqi government, especially in the field of energy, water, and security were put on the agenda of this trip. Therefore, in his recent trip to Iraq, he reached good agreements with Baghdad on this
field, the promotion and implementation of which will definitely play an effective role in realizing the Development Road Project.
In any case, improving bilateral relations with Iraq and resolving existing disputes with this country can be considered a political “achievement” for Erdogan, who is already eyeing the 2028 presidential elections.
In addition to the ambitious regional goals, Erdogan has lost a part of his popular base in his new presidential term compared to previous years. In the recent municipal elections, the political position of the Justice and Development Party, especially in Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir, suffered serious defeat. Meanwhile, Turkey has put “de-escalation” with Iraq, one of its important neighbors, on the agenda.
While “zero tension with neighbors” was the Justice and Development Party’s most important foreign policy headline in the past years, this approach was forgotten with the country’s “unconventional interventions” in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. This issue not only shook Erdogan’s political position inside Turkey but also led to the aggravation of internal problems and the country’s foreign policy.
In this framework, the expansion of bilateral cooperation with Iraq, especially in the field of economy, in a situation where Iraq has good economic capacities and is considered one of the “largest markets for the consumption of Turkish goods” in the region, can bring positive achievements in both domestic and foreign policy sectors.
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