By Batool Al-Subeiti
Israel has been unable to achieve any military objective on the ground
At the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting earlier this month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken laid the American vision for Gaza after the current confrontation. He said: “There should be no use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism. No reoccupation of Gaza after the conflict ends.
No attempt to blockade or besiege Gaza. No reduction in the territory of Gaza. No forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, not now, not after the war”.
The reality is there is no return to the pre-October 7; the Americans are aware that Gaza is a ticking time bomb and to continue besieging the strip will inevitably lead to the resistance intensifying.
Blinken made it clear that the only long-term solution to subdue the Gaza resistance is to begin the practical process of a two-state solution. With a Western-friendly leadership in his mind, he said, “As soon as practicable, a move towards a peace-loving Palestinian leadership is the most desired outcome”. This is a complete setback to the Abraham Accords era a few years back, where Trump brokered the ‘Deal of the Century’, that sought to dissolve the Palestinian issue through bribery involving the Arab governments.
This stance contrasts with the Israeli occupation entity, which cannot psychologically retreat from the Abraham Accords era. The regime’s security officials and politicians have fully discussed reoccupying Gaza and establishing complete security control. Their vision is one of completely getting rid of Gaza, whether it involves displacing the population to the Sinai or turning them into global refugees. Those in Gaza who have fled to the south are being prevented from going back to their homes in the north, as the occupation entity wishes to gather them in one location to come up with their ‘final solution’. However, this is premised on the illusion the Gazan resistance can be destroyed and drained militarily.
The occupation entity is willing to sacrifice its soldiers because it considers this a war of survival, in which co-existence with the Gazan resistance it seeks to uproot is impossible. However, given the population density of Gaza, the practicality of displacing them, the international outrage at the occupation entity, the fortitude of the Gazans and the resistance, all these solutions are built on illusions. To finish off the Gazan resistance is also not possible, as the equation governing the unity of the fronts will not allow the resistance in Gaza to fall.
If the Israeli occupation entity had the power, it would refuse every other solution, whether it is the ‘two-state’ solution or even the Palestinian Authority consolidating its presence in Gaza. The colonial mentality is expansionist in its essence and nothing else is expected of it, as it relishes the starvation and humiliation of Palestinians who are relegated to “human animals”.
The American objective however is different to that of the Israeli occupation entity; it is one of weakening the Gazan resistance as a prerequisite to introducing political solutions since it considers the resistance an obstacle to solving the Palestinian issue. It is for this reason that America has been fighting this war on behalf of the occupation entity, through its 5,000 troops on the ground and Delta Force on special rescue missions, in addition to delaying any ceasefire.
However, since October 7, the Israeli occupation entity has been unable to achieve any military objective on the ground. In fact, through the indiscriminate killing of Palestinian women and children, they have brought shame upon the American establishment due to the global awareness and mass mobilization to end this war, in addition to the backfiring that will reveal itself during election time. It is, for this reason, the Biden administration has been providing the Israeli entity with the location of humanitarian groups to prevent strikes against their facilities, as they are unable to save face. However, the Israeli occupation entity saves face with its settler population precisely through increased bloodshed!
The weakness of the occupation entity does not serve the strategic objectives of the West. American withdrawal from the region was in the context of a successful normalization agreement between the occupation entity and Arab countries, which would allow the latter to operate under the occupation entity’s protection and create stability for the American interests in the region. However, the proof of the weakness of the entity is America’s stronger return to the region and consolidating its direct presence, given the Israeli occupation entity is not sufficient to protect Western interests. For this reason, nine military cargo planes from various countries were recorded landing at Beirut airport, carrying military equipment and weaponry as the West prepares for the scenario of an all-out war breaking.
There are now two possibilities moving forward: if the Gazan resistance is militarily weakened, the confrontation will expand to include other countries within the resistance axis. However, if America continues granting the green light for the war and the Gazan resistance is not weakened, this will further weaken the Western position in the region. Moreover, America is not willing the end the war at this moment, given it will symbolise a strong victory for the resistance in Gaza which is currently in a strong position, as the power shift of October 7 hasn’t been reversed through any military victory by the Israeli entity. Therefore, it is likely the ceasefire will go into effect once the Americans are hopeless of achieving anything and will find no choice but to accept co-existence and adaptation with the resistance axis.
The situation overall is likely moving toward de-escalation, the first step of which is the current four-day truce, after which it is likely the war will continue in the same manner, as the occupation entity wishes to save face. However, it will gradually reduce in intensity, after which it is likely there will be more negotiations and a larger truce. This transitionary period is likely to extend several months in which the situation remains unstable, like the current experience in South Lebanon. It is also likely a ceasefire will come into effect without having weakened the Gazan resistance and this will be due to the occupation entity’s failure.
The reality is that it is America leading this war on behalf of the occupation entity, that cannot survive without American support, therefore the American plan will move forward. However, this does not mean it will be successful. The plan seeks to find a substitute for the Gazan resistance through negotiations, likely to be brokered by Turkey and Qatar, between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Gazan resistance, in addition to between the PA and Arab countries. They may seek to hold elections in Gaza with a friendlier face to Abbas currently representing the PA, such that the Gazan resistance is left without authority and in a similar arrangement to the resistance forces in the West Bank.
The goal is to make the Gazan resistance appear as a ‘death cult’ that is an obstacle to ‘peace’ proposed through the ‘two-state’ solution and the one that is bringing death upon their own population. This is an attempt to manipulate public opinion in this direction. However, even if this pressure weakens the Gazan resistance technically, it will not reduce the spirit of resistance. The resistance axis on the ground is strong and ready to provide all the logistical support for any Palestinian group that seeks to fight to achieve a full liberation of their lands.
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