By MK Bhadrakumar
The Cradle
As an Atlanticist colonial project, the state of Israel is now wrestling with how to engage with the multipolar east without losing its unconditional western support.
Last Monday, Israeli media reported that Netanyahu received an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to pay a state visit to China. The next day, the prime minister’s office confirmed the news and disclosed that Netanyahu had also informed a visiting US congressional delegation that he will travel to Beijing.
The Times of Israel later quoted sources in Netanyahu’s office saying that they believed the trip, initially planned for July, would likely take place in October, after the Jewish High Holidays.
On the face of it, Netanyahu is taking sweet revenge on the administration of US President Joe Biden, which has repeatedly snubbed his feelers to the White House for an invitation to visit, which every incoming Israeli prime minister considers to be his prerogative as he embarks on his new job. Proximity with the White House gives swagger to an incumbent Israeli prime minister, which Biden knew very well when he decided to keep Netanyahu in the dog’s house.
Probably, Biden hasn’t learned from the mistake he made with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in somewhat comparable circumstances – for which he ultimately paid a heavy price. Six months have passed since Netanyahu returned as Israel’s prime minister last December, but Biden has yet to budge.
Instead, the White House invited Israeli President Isaac Herzog to visit the US in July, and the latter is being accorded the high honor of addressing a joint session of Congress. The Israeli media has gone to town speculating about Netanyahu’s “growing impatience” with Washington.
Israel’s dilemma: US vs. China
The ego clash between Biden and Netanyahu dates back to the Obama presidency when the latter cavalierly bypassed the White House and inserted himself into US politics. Biden may especially be smarting over Netanyahu’s high-handed behavior during the negotiations over the US’ nuclear deal with Iran in the 2014-2015 period. In return, the Biden Administration has been outspoken in its criticism of Israeli policies, censuring Netanyahu’s controversial recent moves on judicial reform and forcing him to retract.
Nonetheless, it is an audacious decision by Netanyahu to embark upon what will be his fifth official visit to China at a time when Washington is ratcheting up tensions with Beijing. There is a bipartisan consensus in the US on China policy, and, therefore, although Netanyahu may be aiming to get Biden’s attention, his visit to China could also potentially put him at odds with Republicans who adopt a more hawkish stance toward Beijing.
At the end of the day, Israel receives billions annually in US military assistance; depends critically on the US veto at the UN Security Council; is heavily reliant on US financial guarantees; and gets the most advanced US weapons systems on concessional terms.
Despite all this, Israel and China have pursued warmer relations and more interest in Israeli innovations, especially in medical tech, robotics, food tech, and artificial intelligence. Washington’s main concerns lie in those technologies that could have both civilian and military applications, which they insist must be denied to China. But trust Netanyahu to have the diplomatic agility not to become a pawn in the cold war between the US and China.
Tel Aviv’s positions on Ukraine, Iran, Russia
The second bombshell Netanyahu dropped is his categorical rejection of any Israeli military support to Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Plainly put, he has rejected the US entreaties – and this comes at a time when the US-led proxy war is at a tipping point. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Netanyahu claimed that Israel is concerned that any Iron Dome air defense systems provided to Kiev could end up in Iranian hands.
Netanyahu said Israel has so far refrained from joining western efforts to arm Kiev because its situation is drastically different from that of Ukraine’s other backers. For one thing, he said, Israel needs “freedom of action” in Syria, a region with a heavy Russian military presence. Second, if Israeli weapons were captured on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia could always transfer them to Iran.
“We are concerned … with the possibility that systems that we will give to Ukraine would fall into Iranian hands and could be reverse-engineered” and used against Israel, Netanyahu argued. “If that (Iron Dome) system were to fall into the hands of Iran, then millions of Israelis would be left defenseless and imperiled.”
That is to say, while Israel condemns Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, it has also distanced itself from the western sanctions on Moscow – and now decides on a truly neutral stance by refusing to arm Ukraine against Russia. This should please the Kremlin to no end. Conceivably, Netanyahu should now be planning a Moscow visit too, to revive his personal rapport with Vladimir Putin.
Israel’s strategic realignment
Israel is departing from its behavioral pattern, which dictates that since Tehran and Moscow have strategically aligned, Netanyahu should retaliate. But he seems to be eschewing the zero-sum mindset and is hoping to constructively engage Russia instead. Of course, Moscow has also signaled to Netanyahu lately its interest in reviving the verve of previously robust Russian-Israeli relations. Without doubt, Moscow is closely watching the steady deterioration of the US-Israeli relations under the Biden administration.
Moscow has kept an open mind on the Chinese initiative to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Conceivably, the Russians will promote the Chinese initiative, which is very much in sync with ideas that it had long espoused regarding collective security in the West Asian region. Indeed, Moscow has had close ties with the various Palestinian power centers, including with leading resistance group Hamas.
Netanyahu’s re-positioning of Israel is taking place amidst reports that Iran-western talks have resumed. A report by CNN on Wednesday said Tehran is now simultaneously holding talks with the US and the European Union (EU). Iran’s bottom line is that its nuclear infrastructure must remain “untouched,” but below that threshold, an easing of western sanctions against Tehran cannot be ruled out.
An interesting point that CNN made in this context is that unlike in the past, the Persian Gulf’s Arab states have patched up with Iran, are keen to reduce tensions in the region, and are “actively facilitating” the talks between Tehran and the west. “That leaves Israel as the only state that vocally opposes the resumption of (Iran nuclear) talks,” CNN commented.
Adapting to diminished US influence
Israel feels the pressure of isolation also from the Biden administration’s increasingly outspoken criticism of its settlement policies. Earlier this month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the settlements “an obstacle to the horizon of hope we seek,” in a speech to the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC. In a strongly worded joint statement late Friday, the foreign ministers of Britain, Australia, and Canada condemned Israel’s “continued expansion of settlements” which they described as “an obstacle to peace” and a move that “negatively impacts efforts to achieve a negotiated two-state solution.”
Above all, Netanyahu can very well see that the Biden administration no longer has the influence to help Israel’s integration into its Arab neighborhood. The Abraham Accords have reached a dead end. Suffice to say, Israel would also have reached a conclusion by now that the US and NATO face defeat in Ukraine, which will seriously impact West Asian politics, where the regional states are already moving out of Washington’s orbit and strengthening their ties with Russia and China.
In fact, the Gulf countries that voiced support for Russian President Vladimir Putin over the recent failed domestic revolt by the Wagner Group, included the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Bahrain. (India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi telephoned Putin yesterday.) Netanyahu, in comparison, is stuck in limbo.
It won’t come as a surprise if Netanyahu, the consummate opportunistic politician, will also want to be on the winning side of history. Israel’s historiographic models – the synthesis of selective details into its narratives – have become hopelessly outdated and must change along with history.
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