Abbas Sarvestani told the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations that senior European politicians have made several trips to Beijing since the start of the war in Ukraine. Still, Macron’s journey is different, and he has also started a three-way game to escape domestic problems.
Sarvestani said, referring to the goals and achievements of the French President’s visit to Beijing.
Stating that France is not an ordinary member of the European Union but one of the main pillars of the convergence of the Union and one of the five prominent members of the United Nations Security Council, he said that although early last year, China’s 12-point peace plan regarding Ukraine was not accepted, the thirst of European countries’ leaders to contact China shows the increasing weight of Beijing’s geopolitics in global relations and the multipolar order that we are witnessing its formation.
Recalling that France has always been an incompatible partner for NATO and has had different positions regarding the war in Ukraine, this European affairs analyst pointed out the tripling of Europe’s trade deficit in its trade relations with Beijing last year, adding that Macron in his trip to Beijing, was the bearer of the message of stick and carrot for China. Europe knows that by rejecting Xi Jinping’s 12-point peace plan, Beijing’s policies will become more aggressive, but at the same time, Macron warned against sending arms to Russia from China.
Sarvestani explained that Beijing knows that the Westerners will go to China after Russia and create geopolitical concerns about Taiwan or the South China Sea, so China’s efforts are not to let Putin lose this war.
European diplomatic positions towards Ukraine have been formed since France assumed the six-month presidency of the European Union. Pointing to the analysis regarding the fact that Macron was unable to make an evident change in China’s approach to the war in Ukraine, he added that France has an advantage over Germany and Great Britain in that it is a nuclear country that is not a member of any of the nuclear weapons ban treaties. France used this capacity to warn China. In addition, France traditionally had good relations with Russia and wanted a peaceful solution to the crisis from the beginning.
This expert on European affairs considered Macron’s visit to China in line with the moderate positions of Paris and an attempt to resolve the crisis in Ukraine diplomatically while referring to Macron’s statements regarding the issue of Taiwan that has nothing to do with Europe and should not interfere in it. He added that Macron brought the head of the European Commission with him on this trip to put pressure on the European Union to moderate their positions towards China and Russia.
He stated that China and the European Union are facing a lot of benefits and challenges in their relations. He said China gained significant weight in international relations by mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Europeans also hope to take advantage of this potential and use the capacity to solve the crisis in Ukraine. In addition, in the past years, under the influence of the zero-covid policy, China had restrictions on trade relations, and many European companies that had good trade relations with China suffered. Now they hope to resume trade talks.
Sarvestani cited the increase in the probability of the Republicans winning the US presidential election as the reason for the rise in the desire of European countries to get closer to China and added that the European Union and China are seeking to establish a trade mechanism similar to the Transatlantic Agreement between them and under the title of Comprehensive Investment Agreement. These issues show that the European Union cannot ignore China and, simultaneously, tries not to be utterly dependent on it.
According to this analyst of European issues, the war in Ukraine has affected all of Macron’s achievements in the fields of the environment, tax policies, and the imposition of taxes on large technology companies and the minimum wage, and now he is trying to create an opening in his domestic policies with trade openings.
Emphasizing that despite all the criticisms of Beijing, Europe needs it as a global strategic weight, regarding the non-change of China’s position towards the Ukraine war after Macron visited Beijing, he stated that China, despite the good relations that it has with Russia can never persuade Putin to give up his positions; Because it is the issue of Russia’s existence and Russian-inhabited areas are significant for Russia as buffer zones between Ukraine and Russia.
Stating that Putin’s strategy is that if Ukraine ever becomes a member of NATO, these regions will act as a buffer, he noted that Putin considers the abandonment of captured provinces as one of the non-negotiables; In this situation, China cannot play an influential role in the mediation of Russia and Ukraine.
While referring to the pursuit of issues related to the strategic independence of Europe from the US by France, especially after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Sarvestani continued that considering the recent developments, it seems that the plan of strategic independence has generally failed and Europe, without relying on a global superpower, is not able to solve its security crises; For this reason, they have reached out to China. It seems that Macron’s visit to Beijing is a prelude to the start of negotiations that, even in this situation, may become erosive and come to a conclusion in the next year. Several components play a role in it.
This expert on European issues, stating that it is not possible to say with certainty that France and China can solve the Ukraine crisis, added that it seems that these negotiations will be the beginning of a new period of talks. Since France highlights its importance in maintaining world peace, it seeks bilateral relations with major countries. Unlike Olaf Schultz, who did not bring EU countries with him on his trip to China last year, which drew much criticism, Macron took Mrs. von der Leyen to strengthen the bilateral relations between France and China while consolidating his leadership in Europe.
Sarvestani emphasized that we are witnessing a new era of relations between France and Beijing, in which China is trying to make France its infiltrating agent in the European Union. This issue is a crucial element for the future leadership of the world.
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