Dr. Jahangir Karami, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referred to the publication of Russia’s foreign policy strategy document and the country’s emphasis on issues such as “radical changes” in global affairs, limiting the “domination” of the West and the decision to strengthen agreements in Asia and the Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as paying attention to relations with China and India, and stated: Of course, Russia has essential options for strengthening the multipolar process, multilateralism and cooperation with governments and regional institutions in a vast arena from Eurasia to Southeast Asia, the world Islam, as well as Africa and Latin America.
He added: One of the most important options is the natural tendency of all governments to act more independently in foreign policy and pluralism in the international system to such an extent that even in a country like Singapore, which has the most expanded connections and alignment with America, there is such a tendency. Today’s world is more evasive than in any other period of Western domination.
At the same time, the senior analyst of Russian affairs explained the challenges and obstacles facing this strategy and emphasized: Of course, that not all the facilities of the international arena can be considered attainable and available for the realization of such an issue, especially in cooperation with Russia. The fact is that there are important problems in this regard, some of which are related to the West, some to the countries of the region, and some of them to Russia.
Karami explained that the first problem is the power and role of the West in international and regional institutions and those regions: The West still has two-thirds of the global economy and technology. The Western dialogue, which has led to the formation of international structures and norms since the Renaissance, is still the dominant and joint facet of global developments. The role of independent players takes place within its framework. Therefore, Russia’s policy to turn the strategy of independent states into an anti-Western current is not possible. Countries such as India, Indonesia, or Arab countries will not be willing to join the Russian-oriented process of international politics. Therefore, few countries are ready to be placed in the orbit of Russia.
The university professor pointed to the volume of economic relations and the political positions of some countries, including India and China, regarding the war in Ukraine and continued: The second problem is the Western-oriented policy of some countries in those regions. From East to South Asia and Africa and Latin America, some governments are among the allies of the West for various economic, political, and security reasons. This issue will be limiting for Russia and its allies in the institutional and behavioral fields of international politics.
Karami reminded: The existing gap between Westernism and anti-Westernism in the governments of Central and South America fluctuates and changes according to the electoral conditions in those countries, and few governments like Venezuela or Bolivia are willing to invest more seriously in relations with Russia.
While emphasizing the need to pay attention to Russia’s lack of economic and discourse power, the associate professor of Tehran University added: Russia accounts for about 2 percent of the world’s gross domestic product. According to the statistics of 2022, less than two trillion dollars will be allocated to Russia out of the world’s figure of about one hundred trillion dollars. Therefore, it is the tenth economy in the world. Even among the Eurasian Economic Union members, this figure barely stands for two and a half trillion dollars. On the other hand, Russia is one of the importing countries in the field of technology, and from the point of view of export, it is also a third-world country and about 70 percent of its exports are raw materials.
He said: This situation creates an important limitation for Russia to play an international role. If Russia’s military power and strategic nuclear weapons are not comparable to the US, it has a low position in the international arena.
The senior expert on Russia affairs noted: Considering Russia’s limitations and challenges, the development of global trends cannot be analyzed solely based on the weight and role of Russia and the importance and role of large countries such as China or significant regional powers such as India, Iran, and Turkey should be considered as very important.
Regarding the possibility of advancing the new document of Russia’s foreign policy strategy and forming new structures and norms in the international system, Karami said: that Russia’s desire to develop new structures and standards in the international system is not a simple task. Structuring and normalization is a complex subject matter and requires appropriate power, the ability to interact, and favorable discourse attraction. Besides, in this case, Moscow’s strategy naturally has its own contradictions.
According to the university professor, on the one hand, Russia emphasizes structural changes for the pluralism of the international system. Still, on the other hand, it continues to magnify the norms of the Westphalian system of governments with past-style sovereignty. Naturally, many countries emphasize the Westphalian system and demand the transformation of the structures of the international system towards more pluralism. Still, predicting how such a situation can be realized will be difficult.
Karami emphasized: The whole world system is facing such a problem, and the world of the third decade of the 21st century does not have a clear relationship with the world that emerged from the Second World War, but in the absence of a clear consensus for the reconstruction of the previous institutions and norms of the past, and most importantly, a great event that will fundamentally change the old systems as if there is no other option but to coexist in contradiction.
He added: But Moscow’s targets of focusing on such mechanisms and cooperating with independent countries are mainly to get through the Ukraine crisis safely. Russia’s plan for this war was to deal a blow to the West so that it would have no choice but to accept Ukraine’s accession to Russia, redefine the European security system, and rebuild the international system. But the development process did not proceed like this. Naturally, Russia is trying to be less harmed by this situation. It has no choice but to count on the possibility of victory in the Ukrainian scene and cooperation with the independent governments of the world.
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