Middle East affairs analyst
Kamran Karami referring to the two countries’ negotiations during the past weeks said in an interview with IRNA that numerous variables and factors made Saudi Arabia take steps towards détente with Iran.
“The first variable was the US pressure on Saudi Arabia to make up its mind and enter dialogue with Iran,” he said.
The analyst on Saudi affairs added that President Joe Biden’s promises under the pressure of Jamal Ghashoghchi killing file which urged him to review the American-Saudi relations, suspend the weaponry sales to Saudi Arabia, lower the position of the Saudi crown prince in talks with the US defense secretary, and take out the Patriot terminals from Malik Salman military base were all in the agenda of the US administration since President Biden took charge at the White House, which made Saudi Arabia to move towards détente with such other players as Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.
He said that Saudi Arabia began détente talks with Qatar since early January, 2021, then sent pulses to Turkey for problem resolving, and eventually talked about negotiations with Iran.
The head of Saudi Studies Group of the Middle East Strategic Research Center said that the second variable leading to the Saudis reviewing of their relations with the regional countries, including Iran, was the challenges against the succeeding of the Saudi crown prince.
“During the past months there were murmurs about the Americans’ support for Muhammad bin Nayef, the former Saudi crown prince. That pressure made Muhammad bin Salman realize that tension in relations with the regional countries is a threat for his becoming the next king and he needs détente with the other regional players to stabilize his own position inside the country,” he said.
Karami reiterated that many of Saudi economic and social reform plans under the 2030 Perspective were cancelled due to the oil price decrease and the coronavirus pandemic.
“That perspective had led to bin Salman popularity in Saudi Arabia and their cancellation could threaten his position,” he added.
The Middle East affairs analyst said that the 3rd variable affecting Riyadh’s policies was the general crisis level lowering in the region.
“The crisis centers between Iran and Saudi Arabia such as Syria, Iraq, and to some extent Yemen, have not been creating noticeable tension in Tehran-Riyadh relations in recent months, and it seems as though gradual crisis resolving between the two countries is predictable,” he said.
He said that the above-mentioned variables played important roles in Saudi Arabia’s inclination towards having negotiations with Iran in the course of the past three rounds, and the atmosphere is ripe for the 4th round now.
Karami said that the Saudis have achieved no tangible results from their six years of war in Yemen, which is one of the axes of their talks with Iran, and have no way but yielding to resolving the Yemen crisis as they are also faced with tensions with the UAE in the South Yemen Power Transfer Council.
He said that ensuring the security of sailing in the Persian Gulf, returning of Syria to the Arab League, and naturalizing of Saudi relations with the Zionist regime are the main axes of bilateral negotiations.
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