Germany in Unchartered Waters as Merkel Party Loses Polls

FRANKFURT (AFP) -- Germany headed into a period of unpredictability Monday after a close election saw both main parties claim the right to lead Europe’s biggest economy, leaving the question of who will succeed Angela Merkel wide open.
Partial results early Monday narrowly put the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in the lead at 25-26 percent, followed by Merkel’s center-right CDU-CSU bloc with a record-low score of around 24 percent. The Green party placed third with around 14 percent.
The SPD’s chancellor candidate, Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and his rival Armin Laschet from Merkel’s conservative camp each claimed a mandate to govern, setting off a scramble for potential coalition partners.
For a country used to political stability after 16 years of Merkel’s steady leadership, the coming weeks and months promise to be a rocky ride.
Western allies are watching closely, aware that domestic preoccupations could blunt Germany’s role on the international stage and create a leadership vacuum in Europe.
Laschet, 60, and Scholz, 63, both said their goal was to have a new government in place before Christmas.
Citizens “want a change in government,” said Scholz, who ran an error-free campaign that cast him as a safe pair of hands, contrasting sharply with Laschet’s series of gaffes.
“Scholz wants to be in power, so does Laschet. The poker game begins: who holds the better cards?” asked the best-selling Bild newspaper.
In the fractured political landscape of the post-Merkel era, the most likely outcome will be a three-way alliance, ending the post-war tradition of two-party coalition governments.
Scholz and Laschet will be looking to the Greens and the liberal, pro-business FDP party (11.5 percent) to make up the numbers needed for a parliamentary majority.
The kingmakers however are not natural bedfellows, diverging strongly on issues like tax hikes and public investment in climate protection.
Green chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock -- whose party hoped to do better with the climate crisis a top voter concern this year -- stayed vague about her preferred tie-up, saying only it was time for “a fresh start” in Germany.
FDP leader Christian Lindner suggested sitting down with the Greens first before starting exploratory talks with the two bigger parties to speed up the process.
Lindner has signaled a preference for a “Jamaica” coalition with the CDU-CSU and the Greens -- named after those parties’ black, green and yellow colors -- but has not ruled out a “traffic light” constellation with the SPD and the Greens.
Laschet also evoked a sense of urgency on Sunday, saying Germany’s stint as president of the G7 club of rich nations next year meant the country needed to have a government in place capable of taking action.
Neither the SPD nor the CDU-CSU want a repeat of the left-right “grand coalition” that has featured in three of Merkel’s four governments.
And no party will team up with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose score fell to 10.5 percent from nearly 13 percent at the last election in 2017 as its pet topic, immigration, fell off the agenda.
The far-left Linke party also lost support and was teetering on the edge of the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament.
Until the complex negotiations are settled, Merkel will remain in her role in a caretaker capacity.
Should the talks last beyond December 17, Merkel will overtake Helmut Kohl’s record as Germany’s longest-serving chancellor.