Abdul-Mahdi Resignation; Iraq on an unclear Path!

       

Abdul-Mahdi ‘s unstable cabinet ended, let’s remember how he was assigned. Abdul-Mahdi, unlike previous PMs, did not candidate himself for the position but others asked him. He was mainly decided by Muqtada Sadr and Muhammad Reza Sistani (son of Ayatullah Sistani).

On 29 November an hour after the speech of Friday Prayers by Ayatullah Sistani’s representative, Abdul-Mahdi announced he will submit his resignation to the Parliament. In this speech, Ayatullah Sistani was addressing the Parliament mainly and “searching for new candidates in Parliament” was an expression to hint for new government in Iraq.
Therefore, after two months, the protests in Iraq result in fall of the government. The protests that became bloody in the last two nights and tens of people died and thousand injured in Najaf and Dhi Qar provinces. This was unprecedented at least in Najaf.

It is important to analyze different movements in Iraq, specially inside the house of Shia. From behind the scene but active Ammar Hakim, Sadr’s surfing on the protests and passivity of Fath movement under leadership of Hadi al-Amiri, they all need to be studied to find the challenges and capacities.

But Abdul-Mahdi, who barely reached one year of his Prime Ministry, faced serious challenges from the beginning to complete the cabinet and it actually never was complete! Some Ministers never got approval of Parliament.

Abdul-Mahdi ‘s unstable cabinet ended, let’s remember how he was assigned. Abdul-Mahdi, unlike previous PMs, did not candidate himself for the position but others asked him. He was mainly decided by Muqtada Sadr and Muhammad Reza Sistani (son of Ayatullah Sistani).

Muhammad Reza Sistani was looking for a moderate person in a sense that he does not follow Iran nor US. But Muqtada Sadr knew better what he was looking for. He was looking for a PM out of Islamic Dawa Party. It was the beginning of the successful way he imagined.

Fath movement considered Abdul-Mahdi a suitable candidate but not perfect and better than Haider al-Abadi. They preferred to agree with the selection and get some privileges from Sadr when choosing the cabinet, that they couldn’t actually.

Today we should ask those who chose Abdul-Mahdi that why became the main opposition to him? Are economic, infrastructural and corruption issues result of his performance? Or they expected Abdul-Mahdi miraculously solve everything in less than a year? Or the main question can be that if for any chaos and blood shedding in the streets government should go, when will this cycle stop? And even this ill political system might fall.

Muqtada Sadr welcomed Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation and asked for referendum for new PM by putting voting boxes in the squares where there were protests! Showing a nonsense level of populism.
According to Iraq’s constitution, Prime Minister is proposed by the President and approved by Parliament’s vote of confidence. Sadr also invited to continue the protests and that the next government be a worthy government without partisan or religious considerations. A slogan which is said easier than done in Iraq. Sadr will be the first opposition of such a government!

What is important after the resignation is the process of selecting the new Prime Minister, which is not that easy at all. Muqtada Sadr still continues his dual controversial stances by wanting his share in power and showing his opposition face. Seemingly it still works in Iraq!

Fath movement close to Iran which achieved the highest number of seats after Saerun movement (Sadr) in the Parliament election, should be more active and know that being silent and away from battle is not useful and it might even result in losing their supporters. On the other hand by actively following their goals give other groups the lesson to be responsible for their actions.

But also the main chaos and protests in Iraq, which had deviations from Sadr movement, does it continue as harsh and vast as now? It is important to know that the current protest was manipulated by foreign powers to fall Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government only or it was a people movement which does not go back until reaches its goals including political structure and economic reforms or even a mixture of both.

Everybody knows that Abdul-Mahdi was not famous for corruption nor the current situation is result of his one year being in the office.
We believe future days will shed more light on the political scene of Iraq and the role of political groups in the incidents of these two Shia provinces will be more clear.

What is Iran's message in Sadr meeting with Khamenei?

Ali Mamouri

Shortly after Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr appeared Sept. 10 in the presence of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, Khamenei's official website published several photos of the scene, showing Sadr submitting to Khamenei by putting his hand on his chest and looking up at him.

Sadr was seated with Soleimani to his left, both on a cushion on the floor, and Khamenei to his right, on a chair; Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, sat next to Soleimani. This setting was intended to send a message to Iran's opponents in the region that Sadr is an essential element of the resistance axis, of which Khamenei is leader and Soleimani military commander.

Kayhan, a hard-line Iranian newspaper close to Khamenei, reported on the bigger picture of what had transpired at the Tehran assembly commemorating the third Shiite Imam Hussein Ibn Ali. In a piece titled, “Resistance axis is on the rise while the enemy is falling,” it introduced Sadr as Iran's third pillar in the region side by side with Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Yemen’s Ansar Allah leader Abdul-Malik Badreddin al-Houthi.

The article also quoted several tweets from Iranian social media activists: “Trump, Netanyahu and King Salman know the meaning of this picture better than anyone else”; “Sadr entered Imam Khomenei Hussainia [congegration hall], Bolton left the White House”; and “Sadr's meeting with Khamenei is another strike at the Western-Hebrew-Arab ominous triangle [United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia].”

Khamenei's Sept. 10 assembly, part of a 10-day commemoration event on the occasion of the martyrdom in battle of the Imam Hussein, a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, is not only a religious gathering, but also a political show conveying messages to local and international audiences. The day before the assembly, a religious singer (Maddah) sang a poem, in the presence of Khamenei, against the Saudis, slamming them for attacking Yemen and calling the Houthis the soldiers of God who could "destroy Satan's devil horns," in reference to the Saudi royal family.

In addition to sending a message to its regional opponents with the Sept. 10 meeting, Iran has been reorganizing its forces in Iraq. Iran's traditional forces in Iraq, which include a group of Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) factions, gathered under the umbrella of the Fatah parliamentary bloc and Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa party, do not seem powerful enough in Iraq's political scene.

Following the series of attacks against PMU bases, its factions have been divided into two: One group is getting closer to Iran and the other is distancing itself from Iran. Moreover, many of the PMU factions have been involved in corruption, alcohol and drug smuggling, gambling and other illegal activities.

The Dawa party also has been divided into a pro-Iranian group led by Maliki and a US-friendly group led by Haider al-Abadi.

Under these circumstances, no one is more trustworthy than Sadr who leads the largest parliamentary bloc, the Sairoon Alliance, and Saraya al-Salam, a constant and powerful military faction.

An Iranian source close to Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei's senior adviser on international affairs, told Al-Monitor that although Sadr would never fully submit to Iran, Khamenei's administration looks at him as a strong trustworthy ally with genuine anti-US sentiments that can assure Iraq will remain a strategic ally of Iran.

“A strong ally with some differences is a better and long-lasting ally than a weak and divided one,” said the source, referring to Iran's traditional allies among the Dawa party and PMU factions.

It seems that Sadr also has the same view about working with Iran. In a Sept. 13 tweet, he addressed Iraq's politicians, writing, “Your corruption will not last long,” implying that a big change is coming to the political scene in Iraq.

By attending the Sept. 10 assembly in Tehran, Sadr has shown his support for the Iranians in this difficult time, emphasizing that Iran is a great player in the region with powerful flexibility and pragmatism. At the same time, Sadr is getting support from the Iranians for his future moves in Iraqi politics. Following Sadr’s meeting with Khameini and Soleimani, none of the Iranian actors in Iraq, including the PMU factions, can accuse Sadr of an anti-Iranian agenda, as happened in the past few years.

Sadr will continue his independent and nationalistic discourse, expanding his influence in the Iraqi government, but without objections from Iran-backed groups in Iraq. In the end, Iran is unconcerned about Iraq becoming a US or Saudi ally under Sadr's influence.

Despite all these indicators showing bilateral rapprochement between Iran and Sadr, their honeymoon is not expected to last long due to the changeability of Sadr and complexity of Iraqi politics with so many actors with different tendencies.

Ali Mamouri is Al-Monitor's Iraq Pulse Editor and a researcher and writer who specializes in religion. He is a former teacher in Iranian universities and seminaries in Iran and Iraq. He has published several articles related to religious affairs in the two countries and societal transformations and sectarianism in the Middle East.