Relations between Iran, Iraq, and the United States are shaped by growing regional tensions and a complex system of political and security interactions, in which Baghdad plays an important balancing role.
Samyar Rostami
Tehran seeks greater cooperation between Iran and Iraq in completely dismantling Iranian Kurdish opposition individuals and groups in accordance with the previous security agreement, coordination to protect common borders, and the pursuit of Iran’s armed opponents in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Earlier, Iran called on Iraq to “assume its responsibility” in preventing the use of its airspace for aggression against neighboring countries or prevent the “misuse” of its airspace against Iran.
Towards the end of the 12-Day War, some Iranian military elites criticized the Iraqi government for failing to defend its skies.
Apart from condemning the US and Israel for their attacks on the positions of the Iraqi military and security forces, Iran seeks to reduce the presence and role of the US and prevent Israel’s influence in Iraq.
With the increase in attacks against Iran’s allies in Iraq, the possibility of wider reactions and a more regional presence and the use of weapons (by Hashd al-Shaabi) against the Americans in Iraq and the region will increase.
Also, Iranian officials such as Masoud Pezeshkian and Abbas Araghchi appreciated the Iraqi government and nation and the religious authorities of Iraq regarding the decisive condemnation of the aggression of America and Israel.
Despite Washington’s pressure, the Shia allies have the largest parliamentary bloc and a decisive role in the government. So, regarding soft power, Iran is the toughest foreign actor in Iraq.
American pressures
Washington and Baghdad have agreed to reduce the role of U.S. forces in the fight against ISIS and to move toward a new security relationship.
In the past year, however, a memorandum of understanding on border security between Iran and Iraq was signed. But America’s negative note against the Iran-Iraq cooperation understanding is very important.
While America is advancing its efforts to reduce Iran’s influence in Iraq, the need to contain and control non-state weapons and stop the activities of Iran-related groups has been a part of Washington. So, the US has warned that the Iraqi militia groups should not enter the conflict in the region.
In the past months, Washington intensified pressure on Baghdad to reduce its dependence on Iranian electricity and gas. Also, US President Donald Trump warned against the return of Nouri al-Maliki to the position of prime minister and threatened to stop US aid to Iraq if he is elected.
From this point of view, the threat to sanction the three institutions of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the SOMO Oil Marketing Company is a pressure lever against Baghdad.
The United States is facing a serious challenge in redefining its military mission in Iraq. But it tries to maintain Baghdad’s dependence on itself in order to stabilize its geopolitical and security position in the region.
Baghdad’s Approach
Trilateral relations between Iran, America, and Iraq should be seen in the framework of Iraq’s internal dynamics and the logic of regional competition.
Factors such as security concerns regarding the actions of the US and Israel, ensuring regional peace and stability, and playing an active role are effective in Iraq’s approach.
In the diplomatic sphere, Iraq continues to emphasize foreign policy based on balance, establishing relations based on cooperation and mutual respect with countries in the region and the world, and joint cooperation to strengthen security and stability and reduce tensions.
The Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, is trying to avoid any kind of conflict by warning about the escalation of the crisis in the region.
Iraqi officials have strongly condemned the aggressive attacks of America and Israel against Iran and have emphasized the position of opposing this war and not allowing third parties to use Iraqi territory in aggression against Iran.
Recently, in the strategic partnership meeting between Iraq and the United States of America, on March 26, 2026, the two sides emphasized their commitment to keep Iraq away from the scope of military conflict in the region, fully respect its sovereignty, and support Iraq in order to ensure the impossibility of using its soil, airspace, and territorial waters to threaten Iraq or neighboring countries and the region.
Apart from its full commitment to support the embassies and diplomatic missions in Iraq, the Iraqi government condemns any use of its territory and airspace for aggression against others.
This approach of Baghdad is a serious effort to maintain Iraq’s neutrality in the war against Iran.
In line with Iraq’s approach to reduce tensions and avoid conflicts, in the last month, Al-Sudani announced that Baghdad can play the role of a mediator due to its good relations with Iran and the United States. Baghdad’s simultaneous relations with the United States of America and Iran have made it possible for Iraq to play the role of a mediator.
On the other hand, Baghdad tries to prevent the attacks of Israel and the United States against the positions of the Iraqi army and the people.
In addition to summoning the charge d’affaires of the American embassy, the Iraqi government has filed a complaint against Washington. Also, Iraq has decided to stand against the military attacks against headquarters and organizations of Al-Hashd al-Shaabi based on the right to respond.
In fact, the Iraqi government has repeatedly warned against aggression amid the anger of public opinion, demands to cancel the security agreements between Iraq and the United States and has made efforts to maintain political neutrality and prevent attacks on the headquarters of the army and al-Hashd al-Shaabi.
Pro-Iran groups consider the dissolution of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) an “unwise and suicidal” move
Most of the Shia factions support the proposed draft law of Hashd al-Shaabi (the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF))with the aim of integrating this group as a government entity.
Perspective
Despite Iraq’s adherence to strengthening relations with NATO member countries, Baghdad does not want to harm the relations between Tehran and Baghdad in the future. Therefore, it does not believe in military solutions against Iran and rejects military action to solve the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Regarding Iraq’s approach to pursuing and adopting a balanced policy between Iran and America, and keeping Baghdad away from regional conflicts and ensuring that Iraqi soil is not used to attack the people and security forces, it is not expected that the Iraqi armed forces will respond to the aggressor.
Also, there is a possibility of a wider role for Baghdad in reducing the tension of mediation between Iran and the United States.
However, with the increase in attacks against Iran’s allies in Iraq, the possibility of wider reactions and a more regional presence and the use of weapons (by Hashd al-Shaabi) against the Americans in Iraq and the region will increase. In the meantime, despite maintaining neutrality, there will be wider efforts among Iraqi political, cultural, and religious currents for the benefit of Iran.
Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations
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