As the war on Yemen escalates, the battle for influence in its eastern region has intensified, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE vying for strategic dominance, Israel expanding its covert military footprint, and the US intervening militarily on its behalf.
The Cradle
As Sanaa resumed its naval blockade on Israel-destined ships in response to the aid ban on Gaza, the US swiftly intervened to shield its ally, launching large-scale airstrikes across several Yemeni governorates, leaving hundreds of casualties.
However, Yemen’s response was immediate. Its armed forces executed a high-level military operation targeting the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman and its accompanying naval vessels in the Red Sea – an escalation that signals the start of a new phase of confrontation.
However, the repercussions of this escalation extend far beyond the maritime front. Inside Yemen, the battle for influence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is intensifying. Controlling the eastern region means securing vital global trade routes across the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait while establishing alternative energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This makes the region a hotbed of competition between regional and international powers.
The Golden Triangle: A renewed struggle for influence
An old struggle for influence has reignited due to the changes imposed by the Ansarallah-aligned army’s actions in support of Gaza. While Saudi Arabia has been expanding its presence in Al-Mahra and Hadhramaut, deploying Salafi extremist militants into oil-rich areas, the UAE has intensified its grip on the strategically vital island of Socotra, which it has reportedly opened to Israeli troops and intelligence operatives.
Since the start of the war on Yemen in 2015, the UAE has sought to impose control over Socotra, often described as the “jewel of the Indian Ocean.” Located at the confluence of the Arabian Sea and the Horn of Africa, the island sits near vital maritime routes connecting Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz – an area known as the “Golden Triangle.” Initially, Abu Dhabi’s presence on the island was framed as a humanitarian aid endeavor, but it quickly devolved into demographic and military expansion.
Saleh Manser al-Yafei, editor-in-chief of the Southern Scene website, tells The Cradle:
“What the UAE has done is not born of the moment, but is part of a prior plan that it has worked on since before the war. It naturalized a number of Socotra's population, and through them bought land and farms. With the outbreak of the war and the formation of the so-called Saudi-led Arab coalition, the UAE became involved in it and turned its sights towards Socotra to implement its plan to control the island.”
The UAE has tried to lease Socotra for 99 years, purchase strategic land, dominate the DSCOM tourist reserve, and establish a loyal paramilitary force known as the Socotra Elite. It has also launched service projects like Khalifa Bin Zayed Hospital and an Emirati telecom network to embed itself into daily life on the island.
Yafei believes that developments in Socotra are closely linked to events in Al-Mahra and Hadhramaut, as they all form part of Yemen’s eastern region.
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE are both racing for control. Riyadh dominates Wadi Hadhramaut and aims to control Al-Mahra, while Abu Dhabi holds the Hadhramaut coast and Socotra. Both have created loyal militias to replace Yemen’s national army and security forces, advancing their strategic goals.”
Riyadh has pushed to consolidate its influence in Al-Mahra by deploying military forces under the guise of counter-smuggling operations. It has strengthened its presence by building military bases, co-opting local tribal leaders, and supporting Salafi extremist groups that align with its ideological and strategic interests. This has led to heightened tensions with local communities who oppose the kingdom’s militarization of the governorate.
Popular resistance to foreign influence
As Saudi Arabia expands its military footprint in Al-Mahra, widespread protests have erupted against its presence. Simultaneously, Socotra is witnessing growing unrest, with residents condemning what they describe as an Emirati “occupation.”
The protests come after leaked documents revealed that the Minister of Transportation in Ahmad Awad bin Mubarak's government agreed to hand over Socotra International Airport to the UAE's Eastern Triangle Holding Company based on a secret deal signed between UAE representative Khalfan al-Mazrouei and Socotra Governor Raafat al-Thaqali, who holds Emirati citizenship. This deal followed a prior agreement that sold portions of airport land to Emirati firms.
Beyond controlling the airport, the UAE has expanded its grip across multiple sectors. In partnership with Israel, it has altered Socotra’s demographic fabric, introduced intelligence operatives, and deepened its military presence. According to reports, intelligence figures, such as Salem bin Ali al-Shuwaihi is preparing to open an Emirati mosque on the island.
Amir al-Socotri, assistant secretary of the Socotra National Congress, a political group advocating for the island’s sovereignty, explains to The Cradle:
“The UAE’s influence strategy in Socotra is multifaceted – military, economic, and cultural. It aims to erase Socotra’s identity by spreading Emirati culture, raising its flag, altering school curricula, and encouraging students to study in the UAE. It portrays itself as Socotra’s main benefactor through local media. Militarily, the UAE has built bases, deployed loyalist forces like the Security Belt and the Southern Transitional Council, and stationed warships along its coasts. It secures tribal allegiances with financial incentives and recruits young men into Emirati security services.”
He adds, “Economically, the UAE dominates vital services such as fuel and electricity through companies like ADNOC and Dixim Power, sidelining Yemen’s government. Infrastructure projects that seem beneficial often serve to entrench Abu Dhabi’s control. Even humanitarian aid is weaponized as a political tool.”
Despite these tactics, Socotra’s population has resisted Emirati encroachment by organizing national movements advocating for sovereignty, staging protests, and rejecting external influence.
Israeli involvement and military expansion
Since the war on Yemen began, the UAE’s control of Socotra has fit within a broader geopolitical agenda, backed by Washington and involving Israel. Military and intelligence cooperation between the UAE and Israel surfaced in 2020, when Israeli and Emirati intelligence officers visited the island. By 2021, the UAE had begun constructing military facilities on Mayun and Socotra, including a runway for military aircraft.
The Emirati landing ship Takreem transported supplies and personnel to Abdul Kuri Island, overseeing the construction of a military base. Reports later confirmed that the UAE and Israel had established a joint intelligence facility on Socotra, equipped with advanced sensors to track Iranian missile activity and monitor maritime navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, construction on Abdul Kuri Island accelerated. A three-kilometer military runway capable of accommodating heavy aircraft was built, alongside a new 120-meter pier for large naval vessels. As journalist Saleh al-Yafei remarks:
“Israel is the primary beneficiary of the UAE’s control over Socotra. Satellite images reveal the construction of previously nonexistent military airstrips following 7 October 2023, indicating that Israel plans to use Socotra as a forward base for operations against the Houthis [Ansarallah]. This positioning allows for cost-effective strikes compared to past Israeli offensives.”
Amir al-Socotri, a doctoral researcher in law, adds that while the US has no permanent base on Socotra, its naval forces operate nearby, securing vital sea lanes for its own interests. While no “official Israeli presence” exists on Socotra, reports confirm intelligence and military cooperation between Israel and the UAE, including surveillance and monitoring facilities on the strategic island.
Between the power struggle among regional actors and the deepening entanglements between Persian Gulf states and Israel, Yemen’s eastern provinces remain engulfed in instability. With the conflict escalating on multiple fronts, the region is hurtling toward an unprecedented confrontation in both the seas and strategic trade corridors.
This escalation may mark the beginning of profound geopolitical shifts that could redefine power dynamics in the region, with far-reaching global consequences.
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