Washington is on the verge of a historic decision; it must either return to the course of diplomacy and provide the required guarantees or pave the way for the intensification of tensions by continuing its failed policies. Iran has repeatedly stated that negotiation has no meaning without practical guarantees.
Nournws: Najah Mohammad Ali, a senior analyst on West Asia issues, in an interview with Nournews, spoke about the role of mediators, the impact of sanctions, and the game of global powers on the future of Iran’s nuclear negotiations.
Nournews: Regarding the complexities of Iran’s nuclear program and the current situation, has Tehran still kept the path of negotiation open?
Najah Mohammad Ali: Iran has never left the negotiation table. However, negotiations must be based on specific guarantees and conditions to ensure that the bitter experience of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 is not repeated. Iran has repeatedly stated that if Washington does not adhere to its commitments, any negotiation will be meaningless. The Leader of the Islamic Revolution has also emphasized that negotiations without practical guarantees are a waste of time.
Nournews: So, you believe that the main problem is not Iran’s readiness for talks but the extend to which the other party commit?
Najah Mohammad Ali: Exactly. Iran does not want the 2018 scenario to be repeated, in which an American president signs an agreement and the next one tears it down! Here, guarantees become important. Tehran is waiting for real guarantees; otherwise, there is no reason to trust again.
Nournews: In the meantime, attempts by certain countries like the UAE, Qatar, and even Russia continue. Do such actions untie the problem?
Najah Mohammad Ali: These acts of mediation are important by themselves, but the main problem is whether the U.S. is really ready to change its stance or not. Iran does not hesitate and knows that these attempts are only tactics for buying more time. On the other hand, China and Russia also play a role in the equation. Trilateral meetings hosted by Beijing can indicate to what extent these countries enjoy real.
Nournews: Some analysts say that Russia may be using Iran’s nuclear program as leverage to pressure the West. How probable is this scenario?
Najah Mohammad Ali: Yes, it could be a real possibility. Under the current conditions, considering Moscow’s conflict in Ukraine, Russia may want to use any winning card against the West, among which could be Iran’s nuclear program. Of course, Tehran is very conscious and won’t let its interests become the victim of deals among big powers.
Nournews: What do you think the U.S. really wants?
Najah Mohammad Ali: It is a question that even the Americans themselves do not have a clear answer to. There are two perspectives in Washington: some want to return to the 2025 agreement, while others are seeking a new agreement with tougher conditions. But the reality is that not only have the sanctions failed to halt Iran, but they have also accelerated Iran’s peaceful nuclear progress and strengthened Tehran’s role in the region.
Nournews: Do you think the policy of maximum pressure has failed?
Najah Mohammad Ali: Without a doubt. Right now, many American politicians in the U.S. believe that economic pressures have yielded no results and have only strengthened Iran’s position. Washington must understand that Iran is not willing to enter into another agreement unless the U.S. commitments are guaranteed.
How do you evaluate the role of Europe?
Najah Mohammad Ali: Europe has shown that without U.S. permission, it cannot take any practical action. Since 2018, Europe has repeatedly criticized U.S. policies but has taken no meaningful action in practice. Because of this, reaching an agreement with Europe is fruitless unless the U.S. provides guarantees.
Nournews: What are the future scenarios?
Najah Mohammad Ali: Three paths are possible:
Negotiations under Iran’s conditions: If Washington guarantees that it will not leave the agreement and lifts all sanctions, Iran may enter dialogue, but only on its own terms.
Intensification of tensions: If the U.S. continues its current policies, Iran may expand its nuclear program more than ever. The Leader of the Islamic Revolution has also clearly stated: "If Americans threaten us, we will threaten them too. If they carry out their threats, we will too."
Russian and Chinese mediation: Moscow and Beijing may help facilitate a new agreement. However, this will only be possible if the U.S. stops making excessive demands and Iran is assured that its interests will not fall victim to diplomatic games.
Nournews: Who must make the final decision?
Najah Mohammad Ali: It is Washington that is at “the moment of truth.” It must either choose the path of real diplomacy and lift sanctions or continue its failed policies. It is the U.S. that must decide. However, Iran has shown that regardless of any decision the U.S. makes, it will continue its resistance and will not retreat from its stance.
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