By Mohamad Hammoud
Lebanon – Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Nowhere is this more evident than in the United States' repeated miscalculations in the Middle East—whether in Iraq, Afghanistan or Lebanon. The Trump administration is following the same failed playbook, pressuring Lebanon to normalize relations with "Israel" and disarm Hezbollah, a group that many Lebanese regard as a guardian of their sovereignty. By doing so, the US is ignoring the sentiments of a significant portion of the Lebanese population. Such a reckless move risks igniting another civil war, just as US interference did in the 1980s.
The Origins of the Conflict
The conflict between Lebanon and "Israel" dates back to the latter’s establishment in 1948, which sparked a series of Arab-“Israeli” wars. Lebanon has remained technically at war with "Israel," and their shared border has been a constant flashpoint due to "Israel’s" expansionist ambitions. This hostility deepened in 1982 when "Israel" invaded Lebanon, killing thousands of civilians. In response, Hezbollah emerged as a resistance movement against the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, which lasted until 2000. Over the years, Hezbollah gained widespread support, not only for its military role in opposing "Israeli" forces but also for its extensive social services network.
Between 2000 and 2025, Hezbollah and "Israel" fought two major wars, with "Israel" causing mass destruction and assassinating Hezbollah leaders. These targeted killings, however, did not weaken Hezbollah in the way "Israel" and the US expected. Instead, they solidified Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon, making it clear that the group could not simply be dismantled. Despite this, Washington continues to misread the situation, assuming that Hezbollah is vulnerable and that the Lebanese government is capable of disarming it. The US also believes that, under these circumstances, normalizing relations with "Israel" is feasible.
US Failures in Lebanon: The 1980s
This misguided approach mirrors past US failures in Lebanon. During the 1980s, Washington sought to reshape Lebanon’s political landscape by supporting factions that aligned with its interests. It backed the Lebanese government and Christian militias in their fight against Palestinian and Muslim groups. The US and "Israel" placed their hopes on Lebanese President Bashir Gemayel, who was open to making peace with "Israel." However, his assassination in September 1982, just days after his election, plunged the country into deeper chaos.
In an effort to stabilize Lebanon, the US deployed Marines to Beirut as part of a multinational peacekeeping force. But instead of bringing peace, this intervention fueled sectarian tensions and further bloodshed. In 1983, a devastating suicide bombing killed 241 American servicemen, forcing the US to withdraw. Rather than achieving its goals, Washington’s involvement deepened divisions within Lebanon and reinforced widespread distrust of American influence.
The Trump Administration’s Miscalculations
Fast forward to today, and the US is repeating the same mistakes. Convinced that Hezbollah is weakened after its last war with "Israel," the Trump administration has pushed Lebanon to take firm steps toward disarming the group and normalizing ties with "Israel." This was made explicit by a Trump envoy to Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, who declared, "We have set clear red lines in the United States that [Hezbollah] won’t be able to terrorize the Lebanese people, and that includes by being a part of the government." The US views this as a way to curb Iranian influence in the region and strengthen "Israel’s" security.
However, Washington fails to grasp the realities of Lebanese politics. Hezbollah is not merely a militant group; it is deeply embedded in Lebanese society, holding political power and commanding strong public support. Calls to disarm Hezbollah ignore the fact that many Lebanese view the organization as a legitimate force protecting the country from external threats. The assumption that dismantling Hezbollah would pave the way for peace overlooks the deep-rooted sentiments among Lebanese people who see resistance as a core aspect of their national identity.
Hezbollah’s Enduring Popularity
This was recently underscored by the massive funeral of a Hezbollah leader, attended by over a million people—a clear signal that public sentiment in Lebanon is more aligned with Hezbollah than with US-backed political elites. While some factions that historically collaborated with "Israel" may advocate for normalization, they represent a minority. Most Lebanese remain staunchly opposed, seeing any peace deal as a betrayal of past sacrifices and ongoing struggles.
The Path Forward
The US has failed to learn from its own mistakes. Just as its interference in the 1980s fueled civil war, its current pressure campaign risks destabilizing Lebanon once again. Any attempt to impose external solutions—particularly those seen as advancing "Israel’s" interests—will only alienate large segments of the population. The road to peace and stability in the region requires Washington to recognize the limits of its influence and respect Lebanon’s sovereignty. Instead of dictating terms, the US should take a lesson from history: foreign intervention in Lebanon has never brought stability—only more conflict.
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