Al-Jolani's double game: Internal convergence or sectarian score-settling?

 Apparent convergence and hidden crises in Syria

NOURNEWS – As Syria is embroiled in complex internal and regional equations, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is attempting to present himself as a legitimate political actor.

However, behind these maneuvers, a perilous project for demographic change, suppression of opponents, and covert coordination with certain foreign powers is unfolding; a trend that could profoundly impact the future trajectory of Syria.

Recent developments in Syria, particularly al-Jolani's actions and statements, indicate an effort to display a form of internal convergence. Nevertheless, behind these developments, two key realities are observable: first, al-Jolani's disregard for the Zionist regime's occupation of Syrian territory, and second, his attempt to cover up sectarian crimes in western Syria. Meanwhile, Syria's return to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and al-Jolani's invitation to the European Union meeting have added a new dimension to this equation, underscoring the undeniable role of international powers in these developments.

Internally, al-Jolani is trying to position himself as a key player in resolving the Syrian crisis by adopting seemingly nationalist stances. In this context, his negotiations with the Syrian Kurds (QSD) and the Druze of Sweida can be seen as indicators of this policy. However, simultaneously, reports of widespread genocide against Alawites and other minorities in western Syria suggest that these actions are, in fact, an attempt to cover up these crimes. The Western response in this regard is also noteworthy: on the one hand, by remaining silent in the face of these massacres, and on the other hand, by promoting al-Jolani's conciliatory approach, an effort is being made to strengthen his image as a political mediator.

In light of these developments, it appears that various actors, including al-Jolani and his supporters, are implementing a complex scenario to alter Syria's political landscape. This process includes both the integration of armed groups into the official government structure and the physical elimination of dissenting groups. Meanwhile, the role of Israel and the West in exploiting this crisis to expand their influence and undermine Syria's integrity cannot be overlooked.

 

Displaying unity in front of the international community

In recent months, al-Jolani has attempted to transform himself from a terrorist group commander to a political actor by adopting a nationalist stance. His claims of supporting Syrian unity and negotiating with the Kurds and Druze are part of this strategy. However, the reality is that these actions are more indicative of a tool for gaining international legitimacy and maintaining influence in areas under the group's control, rather than a genuine change in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's policies.

Ignoring Israeli occupation and focusing on internal changes

Concurrently with al-Jolani's efforts to strengthen his position, Israel has initiated new measures to consolidate its presence in Syria. The reconstruction of Druze villages near the Israeli border and the establishment of a joint institution to manage these areas are examples of these actions. However, what is notable is al-Jolani's lack of response to these developments. This silence indicates his implicit coordination with certain foreign actors and an attempt to shift public opinion priorities.

Sectarian genocide in western Syria

While al-Jolani engages in negotiations for internal convergence, numerous reports have emerged of widespread massacres in Alawite-dominated areas of western Syria. Evidence suggests that forces under his command have not only suppressed political opponents but have also deliberately targeted civilians based on their religious identity. This approach is indicative of an effort to alter the demographic composition of these areas and create a new power base for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Role of the West in recent developments

The response of Western countries to these developments has been a combination of silence and media support. While the genocide in western Syria has received minimal media coverage, al-Jolani's negotiations with the Kurds and Druze have been widely reflected in international media. This approach demonstrates that the West has not only turned a blind eye to the atrocities in Syria but has also, through reduced sanctions and diplomatic engagement, provided Hayat Tahrir al-Sham with more opportunities to legitimize itself.

Future of Syria in the shadow of new equations

Recent developments indicate that al-Jolani and affiliated groups are implementing a dual strategy: on the one hand, displaying reconciliation and engagement with internal groups, and on the other hand, physically eliminating opponents in key areas. Meanwhile, foreign powers, particularly the West and Israel, are also seeking to exploit this situation to achieve their strategic interests in Syria.

In this context, Syria's return to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and new diplomatic movements in the regional arena could create an opportunity for shifting the balance of power in the country. However, ultimately, the future of Syria depends on whether the Damascus government and its allies will be able to counter these complex scenarios.