A world in turmoil and transition

The past Iranian year — March 20, 2024, to March 20, 2025 — is drawing to a close, a year in which events have unfolded at an accelerated pace, whether due to the demands of the communication age or the so-called Aquarius era. In any case, the world has witnessed a year filled with significant developments, from the continuation of the devastating war in Gaza to the eventual attainment of a cease-fire. It has been marked by both intensifying conflicts and diplomatic efforts. From escalating tensions between Israel and Iran to the formal easing of heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington, the geopolitical landscape has remained dynamic. Amidst all this, the US presidential elections and speculation surrounding a potential return of Donald Trump captivated analysts and continue to fuel discussions.

By Zohreh Qanadi
Staff writer - IRAN DAILY

Missiles launched from Iran towards Israel streak across the night sky as seen from Gaza Strip, on October 1, 2024

Nowruz dawns as Gaza bloodshed persists

On Nowruz, March 20, 2024, the Gaza war — in its sixth month with over 32,000 Palestinians killed — escalated as Israeli forces intensified their military campaign with a prolonged siege and an operation targeting Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, the territory’s largest medical facility. The assault on the hospital, which Israel claimed Hamas used as a command center — a charge denied by hospital staff and Hamas — sparked global outcry. The World Health Organization condemned the raid as “unconscionable.” Meanwhile, the broader humanitarian toll continued to mount: over 32,000 Palestinians had been killed, 70% of them civilians, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Aid agencies warned of famine as Israel restricted food and aid deliveries.

Hezbollah-Israel clashes

Tensions ran high in the Middle East amid Israel's war on Gaza, which erupted following Hamas's attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Hezbollah and Israel had been engaged in a low-intensity conflict. Hezbollah initiated the clashes with the stated aim of pressuring Israel to end the war on Gaza, which has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians. Israel mounted a ground invasion of Lebanon, claiming it aimed to confront and destroy Hezbollah. This followed 12 months of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran, which had gradually escalated in intensity. The Israelis were eventually forced to withdraw due to Hezbollah rocket fire, just as vast swaths of southern Lebanon were depopulated as a result of Israeli attacks.
Israel’s assault on Lebanon killed nearly 4,000 people — many of them civilians — and uprooted hundreds of thousands from their homes. The war between Israel and Hezbollah was paused by a US-brokered cease-fire in late November 2024.

Cease-fire: A victory for Palestinians?
After 15 months of bloody war, a cease-fire between Israel and Palestinian groups took effect on January 19, 2025. Israel’s war in Gaza had by then displaced more than 90% of the enclave’s population and destroyed most of the Gaza Strip.

Truce at risk

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli offensive

in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, on April 8, 2024

As global attention remained focused on hostage-prisoner swaps between Hamas and Israel, another cease-fire in the region hung in the balance.

The original 60-day cease-fire was intended to give both sides time to negotiate a longer truce. Under the deal, Israel was supposed to fully withdraw its troops from parts of southern Lebanon it had invaded, while Hezbollah agreed to move its fighters and weapons north of the Litani River, about 25 km from the border. The truce agreement was to be monitored by a peacekeeping mechanism chaired by the US, with France also involved. However, the US, as Israel’s closest ally, has historically allowed Israel to renege on both verbal and legal commitments. Washington does not appear to be pressuring Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanese territory as per its agreement with Hezbollah. Instead, Israel claims it will remain in “five strategic points” until the Lebanese army fully implements its side of the deal. While Israeli officials describe this as a “temporary” troop deployment inside Lebanon, it effectively constitutes an occupation that could lead to the cease-fire’s collapse.

Meanwhile, in early March 2025, the Gaza cease-fire also seemed at risk of breaking down. For nearly a week, Israel blocked food and medical supplies from entering the Gaza Strip to pressure Hamas into accepting a revised cease-fire plan. Israel is now calling for an extension of phase one’s prisoner exchanges, which expired on March 1, rather than proceeding with the second phase of the original cease-fire agreement. Israel missed the early February deadline to start phase two talks, and there is no indication that they ever began.

According to The Cradle on February 27: “Israel has made extensive plans to resume its genocidal war on Gaza. …Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Tel Aviv will not withdraw its army from the Philadelphi Corridor on Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, marking a stark violation of the cease-fire agreement.”

‘A complete failure’

The attack by Hamas in 2023, on Israel, killing about 1,100 people and taking more than 200 captives was declared “a complete failure” for Israel by the regime’s military on February 27, 2025. An investigation by the military determined that Hamas was able to carry out the deadliest attack in Israeli history because the much more powerful Israeli army misjudged the resistance group’s intentions and underestimated its capabilities. The findings could pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch a widely demanded broader inquiry into the political decision-making that preceded the attack.

Acts of terror

Following Hamas’s October 7 attack, Israel intensified its campaign against Resistance leaders, framing its terror acts as retaliatory measures to dismantle Resistance groups. This strategy, which began with the January 2024 assassination of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, signaled a willingness to extend operations beyond Gaza.

Israel also violated Iran’s sovereign borders by assassinating Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024. These operations targeted not only Resistance figures but also disrupted Hamas’s diplomatic channels, as Haniyeh had been a key negotiator in cease-fire talks. Concurrently, Israel expanded covert tactics against Hezbollah, including an April 2024 pager bomb campaign that killed dozens of the group’s members and commanders, as well as civilians in Lebanon. These operations, coupled with strikes on Hezbollah-linked sites, reflected a broader escalation aimed at degrading Resistance capabilities. Palestinian officials and human rights groups argue that these assassinations constitute acts of state terror.

Israel also killed Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in a missile attack in Beirut on September 27, 2024.

Escalation of Israel-Iran conflict

Iran and Israel engaged in tit-for-tat strikes, amid broader tensions over Israel’s war on Gaza. This signaled a shift in regional power dynamics, as Iran retaliated against Israeli aggression. On October 1, the Iranian military launched a direct attack on Israel, firing 180 long-range ballistic missiles — at least 90% of which struck their intended targets. Dubbed Operation True Promise II, the assault was a response to Israel’s broader atrocities against Iran and regional nations, including the assassinations of Haniyeh, Nasrallah, and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan. Tel Aviv, having repeatedly vowed retaliation, struck military sites in Iran later that month, killing four soldiers and one civilian. Earlier, in April 2023, the IRGC had carried out Operation True Promise, a large-scale missile and drone offensive against Israel that damaged military bases across occupied territories.

Syria still in crisis

Syria’s Abu Mohammad al-Jolani(L) meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Riyadh on Feb. 2, 2025.

Syria remained in crisis three months after foreign-backed militants from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, declared the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government following a swift two-week offensive in December. By the second week of March, international concern intensified over escalating violence in northwestern Syria, where hundreds of Alawite civilians were killed during clashes between the new regime and Assad loyalists in Latakia and Tartus. Also, Israel, which has illegally occupied the Syrian Golan Heights since 1967, has further escalated its encroachment by invading a UN-patrolled buffer zone in southwestern Syria, following the collapse of the.

Ukraine war

A Ukrainian officer watches a howitzer fire at Russian positions in Donetsk, on

March 25, 2024.

In Eastern Europe, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine persisted into its second year — a conflict characterized by geopolitical gravity and immense human cost. Since the war began in late February 2022, at least 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, while Russian military casualties approach 300,000, including approximately 120,000 deaths and 170,000–180,000 wounded troops.

The conflict has not only turned Ukraine into a bloody battleground but also severely tested Western unity. With Trump’s return to power in January 2025, the US approach shifted significantly, exacerbating tensions with Europe over support for Ukraine.

The war initially drew substantial financial backing from Western nations, but Trump decided to pause military aid following a contentious late-February 2025 White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This decision aligned with his strategic pivot toward Moscow.

Not all countries disclose their full aid commitments to Ukraine, making it difficult to calculate total funding — particularly for sensitive categories like military assistance — using public data. However, reports indicate that the European Union has collectively provided $138 billion in financial, military, and humanitarian aid. The US remains the largest single donor, having allocated $119 billion, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

As of mid-2024, the war showed no signs of resolution, with frontlines remaining largely static.

On March 12, Kyiv expressed “readiness” to accept Washington's proposal for a 30-day cease-fire. Accordingly, the US agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

US presidential election

The 2024 US presidential election shaped up as a major global event, influencing everything from foreign policy to economic markets. The campaign intensified as global attention focused on whether a second Trump presidency could drastically shift US foreign policy. In one of his final rallies in New York, Trump delivered an amplified version of his typical stump speech, promising “the strongest economy, the most secure borders, and the safest cities.”

Trump won a second term as president against Vice President Kamala Harris in November after securing victories in key battleground states, leaving Democrats questioning what went wrong.

US-Russia ties

After Trump entered the White House, the US and Russia increasingly worked toward de-escalating tensions. In February, foreign ministers from both sides met in Saudi Arabia for their most substantive talks in years, initiating a dramatic diplomatic reset. The two nations agreed to collaborate on ending the Ukraine war, expanding economic cooperation, and normalizing bilateral ties.

The meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov marked a stark contrast to three years of US-led isolation campaigns against Moscow over its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.