With the US applying punishing pressure on its traditional allies in Islamabad and working overtime to cultivate full-spectrum relations with Moscow's old allies in New Delhi, Pakistan is slowly embracing the Russian — and Chinese — vision of West and South Asian integration.
The Cradle
The new route, which will help realize Russia's ongoing aspiration to reach warm water, is being viewed as an important event in West Asia's development and may lead to the formation of a new geopolitical power bloc in the region. The initiative, analysts believe, would balance out the influence of the US and Israel, which have since developed strong military and economic ties with India, a key South Asian player that has traditionally held close relations with Moscow.
The latest initiative is the most recent in a sequence of developments suggesting that both Russia and China are strengthening their ties with Pakistan in light of the evolving geopolitical dynamics in South Asia. Since the withdrawal of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2021, following the Doha agreement with the Taliban in 2020, Pakistan has emerged as an important nucleus of interest for both Beijing and Moscow.
Islamabad indicated the developing dynamics of Pakistan–Russia relations when Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk visited Islamabad. While that trip went largely unnoticed, global attention spiked sharply after former Prime Minister Imran Khan traveled to Moscow shortly before Russia intervened in Ukraine in February 2022.
According to Dr. Abdul Rauf Iqbal, a research associate at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Research, and Analysis (ISSRA) of Islamabad's National Defense University (NDU), Russia wants to increase its economic and political power by building strategic connectivity linking South Asia, West Asia, and Eurasia:
"This corridor could fulfill Russia's long-desired dream with the provision of reliable access to the Indian Ocean via Iran's Chabahar and Pakistan's Gwadar ports, bypassing frozen northern routes and reducing reliance on NATO-dominated transit corridors. This will enhance trade efficiency and naval flexibility besides counterbalancing US dominance by integrating regions like Central Asia, Iran, and Pakistan.”
Is India's western policy shift a harbinger of change?
What is driving Russia's growing relationship with Pakistan, a country that has struggled to maintain an independent foreign policy and relied on US and western-dominated financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF for economic survival due to persistent financial challenges?
Nargiza Umarova, a Tashkent-based senior research fellow at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy (UWED), tells The Cradle that extensive western sanctions on Russia have limited its access to the European market, and it has subsequently had to explore new markets in South Asia for its critical raw materials, including hydrocarbon resources. That is why, she argues, Moscow is pursuing a new transport corridor involving Pakistan to access the Indian Ocean.
“I believe Russia is interested in Pakistan from two points of view: as a market and as a transit hub country with access to the open ocean. Pakistan has a high demand for energy resources, which Russia could potentially meet with its gas. Pakistan's seaports can export Russian gas and other goods to world markets, including Gulf countries, Africa, and Europe.”
The commercial perspective could be a motivating factor for Russia to strengthen ties with Pakistan. However, additional strategic and geopolitical factors influence significant shifts in Russian policy. The changes significantly influence the repositioning of the Russian stand in the policies of its long-time ally, India. According to Dr. Iqbal:
“The Pakistan-Russia rapprochement signals a shift toward multipolarity, with Russia leveraging economic connectivity and strategic partnerships to offset Western pressure on Pakistan. India’s westward inclination and Pakistan’s economic fragility are catalysts, while U.S. dominance in Indo-Pacific trade and security frameworks accelerates these realignments."
He believes Russia’s engagement with Pakistan reflects a mix of mutual interests and strategic hedging. Pakistan is facing economic crises, and reliance on IMF/World Bank loans creates openings for Russian investment or energy partnerships in gas pipelines. Pakistan’s desire for strategic autonomy aligns with Russia’s offer of military hardware, including helicopters and air defense systems, as alternatives to western suppliers.
Does Russia’s tilt toward Pakistan have anything to do with India's turn toward Europe, Israel, and the US for defense diversification? These events have undoubtedly altered Russia's political worldview, with Moscow hunting for new friends to sustain its footprint in South Asia. In Dr. Iqbal's words:
“India's tilt toward the US, as evidenced by its desire to acquire F-35 jets from the US and its joining the Quad alliance, forces Russia to balance its South Asian relations by fostering positive ties with Pakistan.”
India's hobnobbing with the US and Israel and its strong military and economic relations with them have made a palpable adjustment in the geopolitical horizon of South Asia. As Majyd Aziz, a former president of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) and Employers Federation of Pakistan (EFP), tells The Cradle:
"The nations usually adjust their policies in response to the changing regional landscape. The Israeli playbook has paved the way for the US to build a strategic alliance with India in South Asia.”
This, Aziz claims, has pushed Russia to reconsider its economic and defense ties with New Delhi and initiate a new beginning with Islamabad.
The envisioned Russia-Pakistan freight train would travel over the eastern part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-kilometer rail, road, and sea network intended for regional transit trade activities.
“The INSTC is set to hit the ground running for Pakistan and Russia, with the first train departing from Karachi serving as the trailblazer for a monumental alliance ahead if Pakistan's policymakers and politicians avoid playing their usual games with the new corridor, as they did with the CPEC.”
Because the Ukraine War has impeded the expected momentum of a strong trade and investment relationship between regional players, Aziz observes:
“Putin is implementing a paradigm shift, creating a mutually beneficial opportunity for the South, West, and Central Asia nations to strengthen their ties with China and other nations. Pakistan has played all sides in the past but has never taken advantage of this independent stance by promoting economic diplomacy."
Regional connectivity sans Afghanistan
The freight train, which can transport 22 to 44 tons of commercial cargo, made its inaugural journey on 15 March from Pakistan's Port Qasim International Container Terminal in Karachi, bypassing Afghanistan, which has long served as an essential connection to Eurasian markets.
There are several reasons why they chose the INSTC western route for the freight train instead of the eastern one.
Umarova argues that Russia believes in Iran's transit potential and wanted Tehran to play a role in its flagship project, the INSTC. She cites the initiatives taken by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to extend their railroad route through Afghanistan, revealing that Russia was considering two potential transport routes, namely trans-Afghan and trans-Iranian, to link Pakistan.
“Pakistan suggested the latter route and subsequently planned an inaugural voyage on 15 March," Umarova explains. The trans-Iranian route, which will pass through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, will serve to minimize security risks and replace the poor transport infrastructure in Afghanistan with a reliable system.
Iran possesses an interregional railway infrastructure that is dependable and capable of efficiently transporting bulk commercial commodities. The cargo train is expected to enhance the efficiency and predictability of trade operations in the region and reduce transit durations and costs. It received its initial sanction in June 2024 at the 27th Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum.
The trans-Iranian route establishes a land-based connection between Pakistan and Russia and provides access to markets in Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and, ultimately, Russia. Iran functions as a critical transit center, providing a connection between Pakistan and the extensive railway network of Central Asia and Russia via the INSTC framework. Pakistan can export goods such as textiles, food products, and agricultural commodities to Russia through this route while simultaneously importing Russian goods such as oil, gas, and steel. Although other routes may be geographically shorter, the Trans-Iranian route is a more dependable option for trade due to the instability in neighboring regions, such as Afghanistan.
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