US Election: Harris Lead over Trump

Alwaght- The Americans in November will go to the polls to elect their next president. This election will be closely watched worldwide. The Americans will also vote for the Congress members, a vote that can deeply influence the life of the Americans themselves and the world. 

At the same time, the current focus is on the presidential candidates, the Republican Donald Trump and the Democratic Kamala Harris. The New York Times has said in its latest report that according to the polls of recent weeks, Harris is ahead of Trump by 2 percent in seven crucial states that are likely to decide the outcome of the vote. Two months ago, Trump was ahead of the Democratic candidate, who was Biden at the time, by 5 percent, and now it seems that Biden's withdrawal from the election campaign in favor of his vice president has ended in Harris's favor, and he has managed to improve the place of the Democrats against the Republican Trump. 

Popular composition of Harris supporters 

As Washington Post suggests, Harris has not progressed equally among all demographic and age groups as the Democratic candidate. She has made big gains in the polls among young, nonwhite, and female voters, but she has made little or no gains among older voters and white men. In fact, perhaps Harris's most obvious weakness is among white men. Although he has scored well among women and non-white voters, white men hardly have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. The groups that support Harris the most include:

- People with an income of less than $25,000

- Women below 45 years old 

- Ordinary TikTok users 

- Non-white Americans 

- People of age 30-44

The remaining decisive weeks 

1 out of every 5 American independent voters (regardless of party affiliation), and 3 out of 10 independent women, say that they are still undecided about their desired candidate for presidential election. So, the next few weeks will be critical for Harris to attract the independent, nonpartisan vote, NPR data show. 

Reports suggest that the Democrats now have a better chance of victory than they had in past election with Biden, especially that the black Americans say they are more interested to vote now. 

For both Democrats and Republicans, silent and independent votes are very crucial, and both parties are making great efforts to attract these silent votes, which mainly include the votes of housewives, public sector employees, petty capitalists and part of the middle class. 

$370 million, Harris's campaign cost in fall 

In the meantime, paying attention to the financial cost of Harris' election team seems interesting. In this regard, Michael Tyler, Harris's campaign communications director, said in a conversation with PBS that the first wave of fall paid media bookings includes $170 million in television ads and $200 million in digital ads. Given the lifestyle of people who now use smartphones and their particular media, we need to make sure voters are actually exposed to the right message on all the right platforms. He also says that 2,800 events have been held before the Democratic National Convention where Harris was nominated.

Americans divided on foreign policy 

At the same time, one important issue in the middle of the election campaigns is the divide of the citizens about the foreign policy approaches. Politico has asked the Americans: It is better for our future if we (America) actively participate in world affairs or if we stay away from world affairs? The answers to this question suggest that a majority of the Republicans, 54 percent, are in favor of an active role in the world affairs. But the Democrats in favor are much more and is about 68 percent. According to this poll, the amount of Republican support for the active role of the US in world affairs is the lowest in the last 50 years and is 20 percent less than in 2004 and 18 percent less than in 1974. According to the report, only a fraction of Republicans now believe that the US as a country "has a responsibility to play a leadership role in global affairs." Therefore, compared to Democrats, Republicans support less American involvement in world affairs.

For example, now a small majority (51 percent) of the Republicans are opposed to sending arms to Ukraine, and about two-thirds, or 37 percent) prefer maintaining the current level of support to Kiev, and a similar percentage support suspending these supports. Democrats, meanwhile, are much more supportive of aid to Ukraine, with nearly three-quarters (72 percent) supporting economic aid and sending additional military equipment to Ukraine.

On West Asia, however, it is the Republicans that support Israel and Washington-Tel Aviv relations much more than the Democrats. As part of the poll of Politico, 53 percent of the Republicans find the war on Gaza justified, while about half of the Democrats (51 percent) think that Israel has gone too far and should stop the genocidal war. 

These poll results more than anything depict the gap in the American public opinion over the foreign policy matters ahead of the presidential election.