Mohammad Khajui – researcher on Middle East issues
Concerning the extent of the conflict zone, the conflict area in the border regions has expanded over time. We also saw an increase in the type of weapons and attacks both sides had against each other. The Hezbollah pursues two main goals from these conflicts:
First, with these actions, it can apply pressure against the Israeli regime, preventing it from focusing on Gaza. Because Hezbollah, as an important part of the Axis of Resistance, cannot be indifferent to the fate of Hamas.
The second goal of Hezbollah is to be able to demonstrate its readiness and capability in front of the Israeli regime so that this regime avoids any comprehensive attack against Lebanon.
The goal of the Israeli regime in these conflicts is to be able to restore its balance and deterrent power in that region. Currently, the situation of conflicts has reached a critical point. We have never been so close to a full-scale war. But this does not mean that this issue will definitely happen. The fact that the two sides did not enter into an all-out war during this period, and all the areas of both sides, whether Lebanon or the Zionist regime, were not involved in the war, shows that the parties had considerations that did not tilt towards an all-out war. However, the process of conflict has been increasing, and now it has reached a decisive point.
The goal of the Israeli regime in a possible war with Hezbollah is to return the situation to where it was before the October 7 operation. This regime wants to do this with the actions it takes in Gaza and the conflicts it has with Lebanon. It is not acceptable for the Israeli regime that parts of its land come under attack by a group within nine months; about 100,000 residents of those areas are displaced, its economy is hit, and this situation continues. Therefore, the Israeli regime is seeking to return the situation to the previous point and maintain its dignity and deterrent power. Maybe even the Israeli regime wants to hit Hezbollah harder and make it weaker than before in the areas near the borders of Lebanon and the Occupied Territories. Of course, it does not mean that the Israeli regime will definitely wage an all-out war against Lebanon in the coming days.
It seems that in the near future, the Israeli regime will put its battle in an escalation mode and move step by step. Probably, in the coming days, the extent of the areas targeted by the Israeli regime’s air strikes will increase. Still, at this stage, this regime will probably not extend the war to the entire area of Lebanon, including Beirut, and the clashes will continue in the same southern areas in the coming days.
However, the Israeli regime is seeking step by step to increase the scope of the attacked area, and its goal is to create a kind of panic so that different regional and international parties will pressure Hezbollah to end the military actions against the Israeli regime. And it has even moved its forces north of the Litani River, based on UNSC Resolution 1701. It is 30 kilometers from there to the border, and a buffer zone will be created if the Hezbollah forces are transferred. Naturally, the Israeli regime will do this by increasing its attacks, and Hezbollah will try to increase its attacks against this regime with the aim of not being weakened and losing in this battle.
The worrisome thing is that the created situation can possibly move the two sides toward a widespread and inclusive conflict. But since the war between the Israeli regime and the Hezbollah has the potential to gain more regional dimensions and to support the Hezbollah, Iran, and the Iraqi resistance groups will be pulled into the middle. This means that the conflicts will remain in the same area of southern Lebanon and northern Occupied Territories.
It must be noted that Lebanon is a big bite for the Israeli regime Because Israel is currently facing a kind of war of attrition in Gaza and has not been able to free the prisoners, nor have they been able to destroy Hamas, as they say. In no way is the situation in Lebanon comparable to Gaza. On the one hand, Lebanon is a country, and on the other hand, Hezbollah’s power to hit Israel is much, much higher. Because it has both higher combat forces than Gaza and higher military power. Hezbollah has extensive military equipment and precision missiles, and Hezbollah’s ability to hit Israel is very, very high and cannot be compared to Hamas. At the same time, the capacity of the Israeli regime to hit Lebanon as a country is also high. Therefore, the power of the two sides to hit each other has always been the reason for their caution to enter into an all-out war.
If, until today and during the last nine months, the war has not extended from the borders to the entire territories of both sides, it is because of the caution of both sides. Of course, in the current situation where the talks in Gaza have reached a dead end, the possibility of reducing the tension on the Lebanese front is very low. In fact, the situation of conflicts in Lebanon is a function of the situation in Gaza. If the peace talks in Gaza conclude, its effects and consequences will also show themselves on the Lebanese front.
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