Thursday, June 20, 2024

New Najaf–Dammam air routes: a dividend of the Saudi–Iranian deal?

The introduction of direct flights between Iraq’s Najaf and Saudi Arabia’s Dammam marks a significant step towards the kingdom’s inclusion of its Shia minority and hints at warming relations with Iran.

Omar Ahmad

The Cradle

This year’s Hajj is set to conclude on 19 June with an extraordinary 550 reported fatalities among pilgrims due to soaring temperatures. More than 300 Egyptians, 60 Jordanians, and other pilgrims died in the 50+ degrees Celsius heat, including some Iranians. 

The political front went largely without incident, although Abdolfattah Navvab, representing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Hajj affairs, did raise concerns about the “arrest of some Iranian pilgrims” during Hajj. 

In a meeting in Mecca, attended by Iran’s ambassador to Riyadh, Navvab stated, “Some of the host country’s [Saudi Arabia] actions have been unprecedented in any previous Hajj seasons.” He highlighted the recent expulsion of six individuals identified by Iranian officials as members of an Iranian government media group.

In April, for the first time in nine years, a group of Iranian pilgrims traveled to Saudi Arabia for the Umrah, or minor pilgrimage, as ties between the two West Asian countries warmed following the low point in 2016. Before the resumption of relations last year, Iranians were only allowed to perform the Hajj, not the Umrah, which can occur anytime during the year. 

The past decades have witnessed a few controversies, like the 2015 Hajj stampede, which claimed the lives of mostly Iranian Shia pilgrims, leading to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accusing the Saudi authorities of “murdering” them. 

However, the recent news of direct flights between the Shia holy city of Najaf in Iraq and the eastern Saudi port city of Dammam has garnered significant attention. Notably, most of the kingdom’s marginalized Shia minority are concentrated in that oil-rich Eastern province of the country. 

A symbolic gesture

At first glance, the news of Shia Muslims visiting Saudi Arabia does not seem to have much geopolitical importance. However, one must consider the symbolism of a direct flight from Najaf being permitted to enter Saudi Arabia.

After all, Najaf is the burial place of Imam Ali and a bastion of theological scholarship, as one of the two main Shia seminaries (Hawza). The announcement of these flights in April was followed by Saudi Ambassador to Iraq Abdulaziz Bin Khalid al-Shammari’s visit to the Iraqi shrine city of Karbala, another major Shia hub.

Iraqi Shia cleric and leader of the Sadrist Movement political party, Muqtada al-Sadr, welcomed the move, which aims to ‘break the ice’ between Iraq and Saudi Arabia after decades of hostile relations. 

That notion was buoyed by the Iraqi ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Safia Taleb Ali al-Suhail, who stated that direct flights between Baghdad and Riyadh are also expected to start soon. In the larger regional picture, Sadr’s ‘breaking the ice’ comment could also refer to the same being achieved between neighboring Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Emerging out of a climate of hostility

In general, Shia acts of religious expression, such as their distinct observance of Ashura, have previously been securitized by Saudi authorities. On top of this, Shias living in Saudi Arabia have had, in many instances, to conceal themselves and their beliefs under the pressure of discrimination. To this day, the political representation of Shias in the kingdom has been severely lacking, with only one ambassador ever being appointed.

The March 2023 China-brokered Saudi–Iranian reconciliation agreement ended the political impasse between the two neighboring states. The agreement encompassed all aspects of relations. With Riyadh and Tehran ostensibly motivated greatly by their own distinct religious worldviews, easing any religious tensions was always expected to be part of the process. 

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi previously claimed that the China-brokered process was to ‘drive a wave of reconciliation’ between the two. This was made possible after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman found himself disagreeing with US President Joe Biden on several key bilateral issues. 

On the Iranian side, small overtures towards a renewed diplomatic relationship with Saudi Arabia were a way to wiggle itself out of the global isolation imposed by the US and the EU. 

Yet, Iran continues to represent a mortal threat to the very idea of the monarchy of the House of Saud. Not only is this evident through the religious differences but also in Iran’s political ideology of Islamic republicanism, which opposes the idea of a monarchy ruling over Muslims.

Impact on Saudi–Iranian relations 

The establishment of direct flights between Najaf and Dammam may be seen in the context of improved Saudi–Iranian relations. The flights are not just a symbolic gesture but may also reflect a significant Saudi concession to Iranian requests to make Shia holy places more accessible to Saudi Shias. 

In May, it was reported that Saudi Arabia was looking to establish flights between Dammam and Iran’s holy city of Mashhad, where the shrine of the eighth Imam, Ali al-Redha, is located. Maghsud Asadi, who leads the Association of Iranian Airlines, said that launching flights to the shrine city is a priority for Saudi Arabia, noting that the route could serve Saudi Arabia’s Shia community. 

The comments came weeks after Iran’s transportation ministry said it had received an official request from Saudi authorities for three regular flights between the two countries.

These developments, if confirmed, would mark a considerable shift in Saudi policy, as it potentially opens the door for Saudi Shias to be more exposed to centers of Shia learning – and resistance ideas – something Riyadh has traditionally been wary of. 

Reacting to the news, Hassan al-Mustafa, a Saudi political analyst specializing in Shia affairs, said in an interview with US Arabic media outlet Al-Hurra: 

The actions of the Saudi ambassador show Riyadh’s seriousness in establishing good relations with Baghdad and opening up to all sections of Iraqi society. Saudi Arabia does not limit itself to religious borders, but the common interests of the Saudi and Iraqi people are important to them.

The diplomatic significance of the flights to Iraq was also recognized by Najaf Governor Yousef Makki Kannawi, who stated

The first flights of Saudi Flynas from King Fahd Airport in Dammam to Najaf International Airport carry with them many meanings … the flight from Dammam to Najaf Al-Ashraf is not just an ordinary flight, but rather a journey of communication and rapprochement between the Saudi and Iraqi peoples.

As Iranian-based Tebayin Strategic Think Tank has observed: 

While differences and tensions with Iran caused Saudi Arabia to support extremist groups in Iraq in the framework of a proxy war for influence in the region, with the improvement of relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia no longer sees the need to pursue past policies.

It seems that all of these reasons have caused Saudi Arabia to take a different approach in its relations with Iraq, which, on the one hand, promises to establish political stability in Iraq and the region and, on the other hand, is a warning sign indicating the soft influence of Saudi Arabia in Iraq and It is considered to create grounds for the divergence between Baghdad and Tehran.

Enhanced West Asian connectivity 

Therefore, the balance sought by all parties involved seems to be for economic gain, as the increase in traffic and transit between Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran would bring growth to the associated industries in Saudi Arabia. Dammam, with its significant Shia population receiving regional flights from Najaf, is an example of that.

The Chinese hand in West Asian politics has shown vigor, as the Beijing-brokered Saudi–Iranian agreements involved significant concessions between the two parties. These include the cessation of Yemeni attacks against Saudi Arabia and the cessation of funding for terrorist organizations that operate against the Islamic Republic. 

Another likely outcome of the deal was the improvement of relations between the Arab League and Syria, which was suspended as a member in 2011. 

It is admittedly far too early to say anything with certainty about the various areas of cooperation now being pursued between Riyadh and Tehran and their chances of success. Key underlying sources of tension can continue to flare up. Iran’s support of the region’s Axis of Resistance and animosity toward US presence in West Asia is an ongoing point of contention, which has risen in importance since Israel launched a war on Gaza and the Axis responded, en masse, in support of Palestinians.

So, although there are divergences in geopolitical outlook, it appears the Saudi–Iranian reconciliation deal is producing dividends on another front in the once-contentious realm of religious difference. It is certainly a development that bodes well for West Asia and the broader Muslim world. 

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