Crescent International
Those familiar with the region, however, were not surprised to learn that Emomali Rahmonov’s regime took this anti-Islamic step.
All Central Asian countries are run by remnants of the Soviet bureaucracy, known in Russian political vocabulary as nomenklatura.
These regimes, apart from Kyrgyzstan which experienced three revolts since 2005, are very hostile to public manifestations of Islam, let alone politically active Muslims.
Nevertheless, the recently announced ban in Tajikistan is not simply a domestic matter, it has wider ramifications beyond the borders of Tajikistan.
Russia and the western regimes are locked in a global geopolitical struggle of which the ongoing war in Ukraine is but one manifestation.
To understand the situation fully it must be borne in mind that Central Asian regimes are illegitimate and autocratic.
They can only survive with Russian backing.
The Central Asian region, therefore, continues to be the soft underbelly of Russia, as it was of the erstwhile Soviet Union.
It is here that NATO regimes will try to undermine Russia at the geopolitical level.
Anti-Islamic policies of the Rahmonov regime provide a strong political excuse for western regimes to instigate instability in Tajikistan and camouflage it under the rubric of local grievances.
If some form of unrest breaks out in Tajikistan triggered by the regime’s latest anti-Islamic policy, Russia will be forced to react to events without proper political and social preparation.
If it is truly interested in eliminating unnecessary geopolitical headaches for itself, it would be in Russia’s national interest to reign in its regional puppets like Rahmonov.
Currently Russian approach to developments in Central Asia is outdated: if it’s not broken, don’t fix it.
While this approach may have been suitable in the pre-Ukraine war period, the conflict has created a situation where western regimes are seeking Russia’s downfall in its totality and by any means possible.
Experience of the mass uprising in Kazakhstan that took place in January 2022, where the ruling caste managed to survive only due to direct Russian intervention, shows that Central Asian dictators are extremely vulnerable.
As the protracted war in Ukraine is not likely to subside anytime soon, it is only a matter of time before western regimes try to over-stretch Russia by exploiting the instability in Central Asia.
Ironically, the biggest inadvertent assistance against this might be provided by dictators that Moscow has invested in so much, by maintaining them in power.
Russia is currently restructuring its domestic political landscape to withstand significant external pressure.
Will Kremlin rearrange its traditional external set-up in Central Asia?
Only time will tell.
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