Raisi’s unfortunate death will not alter Iran’s foreign policy on 'Israel'

Hamzah Rifaat 

Source: Al Mayadeen English

President Raisi was the personification of Tehran’s foreign policy which is stridently against "Israel" and pursues the Palestinian cause with utmost dedication. 

Ebrahim Raisi, the spiritual ideologue and President of Iran died in a shocking helicopter crash in the East Azerbaijan province. His death came alongside the demise of his cohorts, guards, and Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, which resulted in a massive outpouring of grief in Iran and condolences pouring in from every nook and corner of the world. Flags in certain countries were flown at half-mast with domestic and international reflections on his legacy taking center stage in international coverage. Yet despite the gravity of Iran’s loss, Tehran’s foreign policy and outlook towards the world and the Middle East, will not change. 

In fact, Raisi’s legacy is set to continue. 

The reasons are obvious. Contrary to unfounded speculation in the West, Ebrahim Raisi’s legacy is deeply entrenched in the political system of Iran where there is unanimity of purpose on subjects such as "Israel’s" barbaric genocide in Gaza. Iran is also not a totalitarian regime where the death of a key figurehead, particularly one close to spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini, results in regime change or a breakdown of the social contract between the country’s population and their rulers. In fact, the upcoming race in the 2024 elections in less than 50 days is about candidates vying for closeness to the spiritual leader, not ideological clashes which have plagued other countries, particularly in the Western world. Ebrahim Raisi’s successor is also current President and former Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber who is known for supporting Iran’s ideological leanings, particularly when it comes to supporting Russia against an aggressive Ukraine.  

Mohammad Mokhber's caretaker role though, will be followed by another President who will continue to pursue the agenda of the Iranian establishment which constitutes the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, the Guardian Council, the Council of Experts, and the Revolutionary Guard Corp. The establishment is solely geared towards ensuring that a peaceful Middle East materializes with an independent Palestine in the absence of aggression and nefarious designs from genocidal regimes such as "Israel" who are responsible for displacement, deaths and destruction in Gaza. There will hence, be no letup in Iran’s unequivocal support for the Palestinian cause nor will there be any softening of tone with regard to suspicions of American influence in the region, which according to Tehran, run counter to peace and prosperity in the region. 

In fact, the post-Raisi era will ensure that Iran’s decision-making continues as an Islamic theocracy, not an authoritarian state. In principle, a theocracy combines religious injunctions with consultative decision-making, allowing for unanimity in approach towards matters of national importance, particularly foreign affairs. This is precisely why and much to the chagrin of "Israel", rapprochement with Saudi Arabia brokered by China with Raisi at the helm of affairs is set to continue as well as greater economic and military engagement between Iran, China, and Russia. For "Israel", these are troubling times. 

On the genocidal regime, the policy is clear. The Zionist regime must seize its proclivity for war crimes against innocent Palestinians or risk being attacked either by Hamas or by Tehran itself. This stance is evident with Hamas mourning Raisi’s death as a great loss for its resistance movement and Houthi rebels in Yemen equating his demise as a great loss for the Islamic world, Gaza, and Palestine. 

Another key component of Iran’s foreign policy is its outlook towards regional nuclear non-proliferation which it maintains is being degraded due to "Israel’s" clandestine nuclear weapons program through enrichment activities at the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center in the city of Dimona. Also, Iran’s distrust of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal is anchored in the rise of populism in the United States under the Presidency of Donald Trump who uprooted years of sensible, strategic, and visionary diplomacy between the Western world and Tehran. This lays to rest speculations on whether Iran would alter its stance on domestic nuclear enrichment in the post-Raisi era given that national nuclear policy is set by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the Supreme National Security Council, not the president.  

The establishment’s stance indicates that hostility towards "Israel’s" opaque program which is spurring Iran’s legitimate right to domestic nuclear enrichment will continue. The scrapping of the 2015 nuclear deal due to American recklessness also entails that Tehran will enhance its enrichment activities in the face of Western criticism and lead domestic discussions on whether religious injunctions forbid the development of nuclear weapons altogether. The message is clear- if "Israel" develops nuclear weapons in an opaque manner, Iran will respond with its own enrichment activities over nuclear proliferation concerns. For Iran, it’s a matter of deterrence and compulsion, not aggression. 

In terms of resistance movements in the Middle East, support for Hezbollah will continue as the group is considered a legitimate political movement rather than a terrorist organization as erroneously characterized by the Zionist genocidal regime. The legacy of Raisi’s Foreign Minister, Abdollahian which is based on closeness with the IRGC, outreach to the Gulf states and managing relationships with figures such as Hassan Nasrallah will also continue. Again, this indicates that Iran’s proclivity for regional deterrence against "Israel" barbarism is set in stone. 

For "Israel", these are disturbing times. The hurried reaction of denial from Tel Aviv to Raisi’s death is an indication that the Netanyahu regime is in insecure waters amid rising domestic and international discontent over his genocide. Had he been alive, Raisi would have also welcomed the ICC’s Prosecutor General’s decision to pursue arrest warrants against Netanyahu and his cohorts which is consistent with the Iranian establishment’s stance.  

What is clear is that the foreign policy of Iran is anchored in its establishment, not individuals. Raisi however, was the personification of Tehran’s foreign policy which is stridently against "Israel" and pursues the Palestinian cause with utmost dedication.