In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Siamak Kakaei continued: Devaluation of the national currency of Turkey, along with the increase in the cost of living and the rise in prices, has made the situation more difficult both economically and politically in that country.

Pointing out that the Justice and Development Party is now under pressure more than ever, Kakaei explained: From the perspective of the policy makers of that party, the situation is progressing in such a way that it is possible to make the political arena for the Justice and Development Party and Erdoğan himself tight. Especially when there is less than a year to hold two important presidential and parliamentary elections.

He emphasized: This issue has provided a suitable space for the criticisms of the opposition parties; as a few months ago, six rival parties of Justice and Development formed a coalition called the six coalition in a political consensus.

The researcher of Turkey affairs said that among them there are figures such as Kılıçdaroğlu, Mrs. Meral Akşener, Ahmet Davutoğlu Ali Babacan, as well as two Saadet and Democrat parties.

Kakaei further said: If in addition to this six-party coalition, we also look at the Kurds-affiliated party, that is to say the People’s Democratic Party, it is clear that seven political currents are in front of the Justice and Development Party and its only confederate, that is to say the National Movement led by Bahceli government.

The researcher believes that such a scene shows that the situation of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party is not very favorable; because the public dissatisfaction with the increase in the price level and the decrease in the welfare level has practically put a one-way road in front of the Justice and Development.

Saying that the ruling party and Erdoğan himself are facing two possible situations in the time period before the elections if they want to manage the scene in their own favor, he said: The first possibility is that with Erdogan’s threats of military operations in northern Syria and the northern regions of Iraq in recent months, a militaristic situation will emerge in Ankara’s foreign policy in the coming months. In other words, by taking advantage of the past experiences, Erdoğan may push the domestic political environment towards security and involve the foreign scene in military operations in order to put rival parties against a status quo and strengthen a sense of nationalism.

Kakaei added: In this way, Erdogan wants to move the public’s mind to the direction that they will be satisfied with the Justice and Development Party remaining in power despite the economic pressures.

According to the expert, the second possibility is that Erdogan will focus on gaining an international political image and reassuring to attract more foreign capital. In this regard, after the Ukraine war, Turkey has tried to display an active policy towards both the West and Russia in order to show off its geopolitical position. At the same time, in the peripheral region, especially in the Middle East, he seeks to re-establish relations with Arab countries and the Zionist regime in order to move the space in the direction of trusting Erdogan again and attracting foreign capital.

Referring to the sensitive situation in which the Justice and Development Party and other political movements of Turkey are on the eve of the elections, the Turkey affairs researcher said that the political, economic and social atmosphere of Turkey is in an inflamed state and it is likely that the escalation of this situation will affect Erdogan and his party and hand over power to rivals after two decades of single-party rule.

He continued: This is why experts and observers are talking about the possibility of increasing Turkish military movements in the region. Of course, this issue may cause a new crisis in the region.

Kakaei further pointed out that 2023 coincides with the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, and Erdogan has been maneuvering on this year since a decade ago, and does not want to leave the political stage, neither him nor his party, under any circumstances, adding: But the economic conditions of Turkey has provided an opportunity for rival parties to increase their political pressure on Erdogan and attract the attention of public opinion. They have placed their main slogan on the restoration of the constitution based on the return of the parliamentary system instead of the presidency.

According to the expert, it should also be taken into account that Turkey did not have a successful experience in coalition governments in the past decades, and this may be the Achilles’ heel for the competitors. However, the political, economic, social and ethnic atmosphere of Turkey is currently not very favorable for Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party.