Since fall of 2020, Turkey has been pushing to de-escalate the tensions with its regional rivals, especially in the Arab world for a set of reasons — including the worsening economic conditions due to the coronavirus outbreak, the Western sanctions, concerns over rise of anti-Muslim Brotherhood axis following the Israeli-Arab normalization, and also the change of the administration at the White House and President Joe Biden's emphasis on further coordination with the European partners to counter the unilateral Turkish actions in the NATO.
In fact, Erdogan's shift of foreign policy was due to his desire to attract investment and trade opportunities, and the idea of creating political protection against his increasingly erratic relations with major powers such as Russia, the US, Europe, and China.
Meanwhile, Turkey's silence on cases like the opaque trials of the murderers of the outspoken Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was killed by a Saudi hit squad apparently sent by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in October 2018, and also turning a blind eye to the Saudi crackdown campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood to which Ankara claims leadership bear further witness to Erdogan's willingness to rebuild relationship with Riyadh.
Presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin told Reuters last month that Turkey was trying to set a "positive agenda" and change the discourse in relations with the monarchy, and that Ankara would respect the outcome of the journalist's murder trial. However, most international human rights organizations and the Western media questioned the Saudi seriousness and transparency to set up fair trials to those behind Khashoggi assassination.
Given this significant policy retreat, Turkey, which has not had very positive results in reducing tensions with Egypt and the UAE, hopes to succeed in de-escalating tensions with Riyadh, given the lower level of geopolitical rivalry with Saudi Arabia compared to with the UAE and Egypt.
During the Arab uprisings starting in 2011, Turkey and Saudi Arabia supported opposition poles in ideological rivalries but did not have significant geopolitical conflicts. Turkey even partially supported Saudi Arabia's policies in Yemen. However, with the Qatar crisis and the Khashoggi case, tensions escalated sharply between these two regional actors. And now the course is more even to de-escalate with the Saudi-Qatari reconciliation, Turkey’s turning blind eye to the Khashoggi trials and crackdown on the Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood supporters on the kingdom.
What are the obstacles ahead of de-escalation?
Despite the facilitators, there are future factors that blacken the outlook for de-escalation in the short run.
Saudi Arabia remains concerned about the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Cooperation Council and then the Arab world, and sees the alliance with the Israelis against Turkey as a geopolitical necessity. Saudi Arabia's recent decision to close eight of Turkey's 26 schools by the end of the 2020-2021 school year has angered Ankara, with Turkey claiming that 2,256 Turkish students will face challenges in not mastering Arabic in education.
Also, while end of the unofficial boycott on the Turkish goods, which was imposed since 2019, was one of the main topics of discussion of the Turkish FM in Riyadh, the Saudis kept their ban on the Turkish products despite talks between Erdogan and King Salman on the G20 summit sidelines. The boycott led to considerable plunge in the Turkish exports to the Saudi kingdom.
Turkey's exports to Saudi Arabia fell 94 percent from last year to about $75 million in the first three months of current year, while imports from Saudi Arabia rose from $430 million to about $600 million. Meanwhile, Turkish exporters are said to have removed the "Made in Turkey" label on their products to circumvent the boycott.
Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia would set preconditions to normalize ties with Turkey, targeting Ankara Arab world policy, especially the relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and military presence in Libya, Somalia, Qatar, Iraq, and Syria.
From another angle, the Saudis have kept a tendency to take on Turkey geopolitically especially in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Arab kingdom will certainly neither relinquish alignment with Greece nor it approve of the 2019 Turkish energy and military pact with Libya.
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