I think that the role of the intellectual or of a senior official of the State is not to praise in return for a financial reward and to develop abstract theories without knowing the morphology of society but to prioritize the best interests of the country through objective analysis for operational decisions.
All political leaders are preparing for the post-Coronavirus era, when the world of tomorrow will no longer be the same as it was before.
Geostrategically, but also in terms of the socio-economic model, the world will never be the same again (see our interviews on France 24 and American Herald Tribune). The world, according to some scenarios, is expected to move towards profound political, military, socio-economic and energy changes (decline of traditional hydrocarbons) with new segments that Jacques Attali describes as "activities of life" generating added value, and implying new behaviors and a new consumption model, with the increased role of the regulatory and non-managing State. The future wars awaiting the world are the food war and its corollary the water war, as well as the digital war with economic espionage, all of which will change our way of life and the management of both institutions and companies. Thus, with the digital and internet world, the majority of printed newspapers should disappear, remaining only specialized magazines, which does not mean fewer readers, but as costs are reduced, other production and marketing methods will emerge with real-time information. Above all, however, there is ecological warfare, which, together with global warming resulting in rising sea levels and drought, can lead to the displacement of populations, large migratory flows and millions of deaths, and the current impact of the coronavirus would only be an epiphenomenon. As a result, international forecasting firms led by the world's major States are preparing for these new changes, which will produce major geostrategic reconfigurations. We will see the emergence of a new power with new economic powers, a new global governance (Re-globalization) that will have to reconcile economic efficiency and greater social justice for a more united world.
We should see territorial restructuring around large regional areas for a world population of around 7.7 billion inhabitants at the end of 2019, 8.9 billion in 2030 and 9.8 billion in 2050: USA (328 million inhabitants) via Latin America - Caribbean (654 million inhabitants), Europe (741.4 million inhabitants) with an ageing population, is currently the richest area in the world together with the USA, and, after this crisis, it should be strengthened under the condition that it no longer gives primacy to the economic but opts for a more social Europe, and that it includes Russia, which is at the same time the gateway to Europe, which should extend to its eastern flank, but also the gateway to Asia with Siberia. The relocation of certain segments outside Asia, including China, should benefit to Europe from the former communist camp, which has a low-cost, skilled labor force, a key criterion for the attractiveness of foreign direct investment, and finally the Asian area with 4.463 billion inhabitants, i.e. about 58 % of the world population with the dominance of the China-India-Japan-South Korea group, the world's largest market between 2020/2030, not forgetting Pakistan and related powers such as Indonesia, Malaysia and North Vietnam. However, the ongoing problem of Afghanistan will have to be resolved.
Europe, benefiting from more than 60 % of Algerian hydrocarbon exports, cannot compete with Qatar, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and thus export to Asia (high cost of transport), and should also focus its strategy on its southern flank towards the African continent (1.216 million inhabitants in 2019 and 25 % between 2035 and 2040), with the Maghreb sub-segment (about 100 million inhabitants with intra-trade of less than 3 %), subject to real integration, of which Algeria is a pivotal country. This continent on the horizon 2025/2030 will be a challenge for the great powers between 2020/2030/2040 with the rival USA-Europe who have the same strategic objectives and China through the Silk Road. In this space we see Libya, with a population of no more than 6 million, the majority of whom are Bedouin, and where we are witnessing a civil war by proxy through the rivalries of great foreign powers coveting its immense wealth. This uncontrolled situation could lead to a destabilization of the region, which would have repercussions on the entire Sahel and the Mediterranean region. Finally, there is the Middle East, the cradle of civilizations, which is experiencing political instability and should be able to achieve lasting peace through dialogue among cultures. It should also see a major reshuffle with the respective roles of Israel, some Gulf countries (whose power is currently based on hydrocarbon revenues) via Egypt, and Iran, which will be a major regional power.
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