United Arab Emirates, in its latest decision, has drawdown its troops in the war against Yemen. We will study and discuss the reasons and the outcomes of this decision in two episodes.
The Emirati decision to drawdown its troops in Yemen is due to a number of reasons, which are namely internal, coalitional, battlefield-related, and regional in nature.
United Arab Emirate is comprised of seven Emirates. Meanwhile, serious disputes have erupted among the emirates of UAE, especially between the Emirates of Sharjah, Dubai, and Ras Al Khaimah with Abu Dhabi, about the initial involvement in this war, which has lingered to this day. Based on incoming news, the rulers of Emirates have piled up pressure on the Emirati Crown Prince, Mohammad Bin Zayed, to pull out of the Yemen war. The reason behind the opposition of these Emirates toward prolonged engagement in this war is the economic losses which have been imposed on these Emirates as the consequence of continuation of this war.
One of the root causes of UAE decision, is coalition-related in nature, in addition to intensification of disputes between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. Disputes erupted between UAE and Saudi Arabia, in the second year into this war.
Dismissal of the premier of former Yemeni administration, Khaled Bahah, was the underlying cause of this dispute. The former Yemeni premier, Khaled Bahah, maintained close ties with UAE. However, Saudi regime, upon pulling strings and influencing the resigned Yemeni president, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, laid the ground for the dismissal of Bahah and instatement of Ahmad bin Dagher as the premier of resigned Yemeni Cabinet. This development went on to show that the Saudi regime and UAE rivaled and disputed each other in instatement of officials within framework of the resigned Yemeni administration.
The disputes which had erupted between UAE and Saudi regime in Yemen further surfaced in May 2017, coming out in the open. In this month, Mansour Hadi fired Aden governor general, Aidarus Al Zubaidi and his deputies, fanning the flames of disputes between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh; given that this development prompted the protests of Al Zubaidi's supporters, resulting in the formation of Southern Transitional Council, headed by Al-Zubaidi, under the guidance of UAE. This Emirati measure led to emergence of numerous clashes between the militias, affiliated to this country, and Saudi-backed militants. The disputes between UAE and Saudi forces escalated to an extent that the Southern Transitional Council referred to Hadi's forces as northern terrorist and occupational forces.
Although the Saudi regime and UAE are the two main member states in the coalition against Yemen, numerous political disputes exist among the parties involved.
The issue of Iran is one of subjects of dispute between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. UAE is apparently opposed to Iran. Nonetheless, this country maintains economic and commercial ties with Iran. Riyadh wants an end to UAE-Iran interactions, which goes against Abu Dhabi's will.
Oxford University researcher, Samuel Ramani, notes "although UAE-Saudi ties seem to be stable, the alliance of these two countries is based on their interests and is void of any solid ideology. The two countries have differences of opinion about Middle East. The Saudi regime maintains a religious outlook toward topics of importance, labelling Iran and its supporting currents as threats against regional stability, with UAE opposing the Saudi approach."
According to some news sources, UAE has even sought Iran's assistance for the graceful withdrawal of Emiratis from Yemen quagmire.
The Saudi-UAE rivalry for the leadership of Sunni Muslims in the Arab World is also a bone of contention between the two countries. This rivalry prompted Abu Dhabi and Riyadh to seek the empowerment of their pawns in Yemen's political landscape.
The other reason behind Emirati decision to drawdown its forces in Yemen is battlefield-related. The main reason behind this decision of UAE is a change of approach by Yemen's Ansarullah and army from defensive to offensive position. Although AFP cited an Emirati official as saying that the reason behind the drawdown of Emirati forces in Yemen is adoption of a pacifist approach by UAE, this is certainly not the case. The fact of the matter is that UAE has realized its military operations have faced a deadlock and this country's troopers are incapable of achieving any tangible and significant military victory in Yemen. This in turn proves the failure of anti-Yemen Saudi Coalition.
Furthermore, the rising Iran-US tensions in the region have generated concerns among the Emirati officials, especially if the battlefield would stretch to Yemen, thereby promoting UAE to seek withdrawal from Yemen.
UAE is in possession of a large weaponry arsenal, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. However, the UAE army is not prepared and does not dare to confront Islamic Republic of Iran and its regional allies.
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