US, Saudis Worried about Imran Khan’s Victory in Pakistan: Expert

If Saudi Arabia and the UAE are worried about Imran Khan’s victory in Pakistani elections, then the concerns of the United States, Britain and other European countries are more serious; because this man is an ardent opponent of US regional policies, and condemns Israeli terrorism.

Senior Arab journalist Abdel Bari Atwan, the Editor-in-chief of Rai al-Youm, has written an opinion piece on the new political developments in Pakistan and its connection to the Middle East developments.

In this article, Atwan says that Saudi officials are seriously worried about the defeat of their allied party, the Muslim League, led by Nawaz Sharif in the Pakistani parliamentary election, and the victory of his stubborn rival, Imran Khan, a former cricket player who does not want to be friends with Saudi Arabia and opposes the Yemeni war; and at the same time is after strong ties with Iran.

Here is the full text of Atwan’s opinion piece originally published in Arabic:

Nawaz Sharif is now behind the bars on corruption charges, just like his other Saudi allies, including former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak. Mahathir Mohammed after taking office as prime minister of Malaysia decided to withdraw all the Malaysian forces from the Saudi-led coalition in the war against Yemen. Imran Khan is also expected to do the same thing. He may withdraw from the coalition that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman formed in 2015 with the participation of 41 countries to launch the war against Yemen.

Imran Khan, after leading his country’s national team to win the 1992 Cricket World Cup, received a Master’s degree in Economics from Oxford University in 1995. He and his party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have been accused by the opposition parties of electoral fraud and turning results in his favour by involving the army. However, one should not forget that he is very popular because of his electoral program that seeks justice for the people of Pakistan through the establishment of an independent judiciary, respect for human rights, the rule of law and the fight against corruption.

In Pakistan, as in many Third World countries like Iraq, Syria, Algeria, Egypt and Turkey (before Erdogan), the army has a prominent role in maintaining the security and stability of the country and the election of leaders. It is enough to point out that the Pakistani army ruled for half of the life of this independent state. So, in the opinion of many Pakistani experts, the military’s support for Imran Khan, the future prime minister, will be the source of his power, not a weakness for him.

If Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are worried about Khan’s access to power in Pakistan, then the concerns of the United States, Britain and other European countries are greater. Because he is completely opposed to US policies in the Middle East, and strongly supports the cause of Palestinians and participated in many political activities that were held to condemn Israeli terrorism during his studies at Oxford University.

After retiring from sports and establishing the current political party (PTI), he continued this tendency, and even his first wife, Jemima Marcelle Goldsmith, who was a British woman, converted to Islam and followed this approach. She heavily criticised Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip in her articles and published them in the Guardian.

Imran Khan has also harshly responded to offensive Twitter remarks against his country by US President Donald Trump. In a tweet, Trump said Washington had “foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years”, but Pakistan had in return given “safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help”. Imran Khan, in an angered response criticised Trump as “ignorant and ungrateful”. Khan accused the United States of pushing the Pakistani society towards extremism adding that “Our society became radicalised and polarised as we helped CIA create jihadi groups; then, a decade later, we tried to eliminate them as terrorists on US orders.”

The Saudi prince “Khalid bin Abdullah Al Saud” was among the most prominent figures in expressing Saudi Arabia’s concern over Khan’s victory. In his Twitter account, he described Imran Khan as a follower of Iran and a representative of the Iranian city of Qom in Islamabad, but he later removed this tweet.

Imran Khan, who is now working to form a coalition government and take an oath of office in mid-August, will try to change Pakistani policies completely if things go according to his will. As he has expressed his willingness to have good relations with India to hold meeting with India’s leader to resolve the Kashmir crisis, he has also vowed to work with President Ashraf Ghani on peace in Afghanistan, and establishing relations based on good neighbourly ties with Tehran. He also expressed his readiness to withdraw from the US coalition to fight against terrorism.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as President Trump, are worried because the new Pakistani prime minister will never be a “puppet” like his predecessors, and would restore his country’s status as a major nuclear power in the region; a role that was ignored under corrupt prime ministers, the last of which was Nawaz Sharif. We have no choice but to wait and see what happens.

Will Imran Khan be Able to Translate Promises into Action?

Zafar Bangash

With the federal government as well as two of the four provinces—Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab—under his belt, Imran Khan, leader of the Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf (PTI) party is a greatly satisfied person. His 22-year-long struggle for change from the two mafia families—the Zardari-Bhutto combine and the Sharifs (no sharifs, those crooks)—has finally borne fruit.

Even in Baluchistan where PTI gained only four seats, talks of coalition with the Baluchistan Awami Party (BAP), winner of the largest number of seats (15) in the province, are underway.

PTI victories can be attributed to Imran Khan’s hard work, charisma and steely determination in the face of entrenched interests that were determined to steal this election as well (like in 2013) but for the activism of the judiciary and supervisory role of the military that provided 380,000 personnel for security duty.

There is little doubt that the vast majority of people in Pakistan are greatly pleased—and relieved—with the July 25 election results.

Perhaps nothing has pleased them more than the fact that maulana Fazlur Rahman, the most venal character in Pakistani politics, lost both seats he was contesting for the National Assembly.

Many other party ‘leaders’ also lost, much to their chagrin but to the huge satisfaction of the people. How could they lose, they demanded to know.

Their knee-jerk reaction was that there must have been massive rigging. And they announced rejection of the results vowing to launch agitation rallies. Let them try; they will find that few people would join them.

One of the most ludicrous rules in Pakistan is that a candidate can stand for election in five different constituencies at once. He/she can also run simultaneously for the National as well as Provincial assemblies.

Clearly this is meant to enable ‘leaders’ of political parties or people that think they are ‘important’ to be in parliament to get into one or the other assembly. This needs to change.

Imran Khan’s challenges, however, are much more serious. It is easy to make promises, a lot more difficult to deliver with so many opponents both internal and external.

He has aroused great expectations among the people with the promise of change. People will be anxious for instant results and can quickly turn sour if their expectations are not met.

Economy would be his biggest challenge. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have been badly depleted with the former rulers stealing billions and stashing them in Western banks or buying luxury properties abroad.

The former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz are currently in jail over corruption charges. A great many more need to be there including Asif Ali Zardari and his equally thieving sister Faryal Talpur.

Will the stolen loot that amounts to some $135 billion, be returned to Pakistan?

Imran Khan has promised transparency and accountability across the board starting with himself and his ministers. He also announced the day after the election (July 26) that he will not move into the prime minister’s residence in Islamabad that resembles a palace and fortress rolled into one.

He said the prime minister’s residence and the huge governors’ mansions would be turned to better use such as educational institutions or rented out.

These are good gestures but still symbolic. It would set an even better example if Imran Khan and his ministers were to use more modest vehicles for travel rather than Mercedes or Pajeros. Other perks also need to be curtailed.

In the immediate aftermath of the elections, Imran Khan has to curtail the oversized ambitions of the independents that have joined his party both at the centre as well as in the crucial Punjab province to give him the majorities that he needs to rule.

These people will demand their pound of flesh seeing that they are in a position to blackmail, especially in Punjab where the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) is a very close second. There is much more room for mischief there.

Decades of misrule have distorted life in Pakistan a great deal. While Imran Khan focuses on the economy that must be his priority, urgent reforms of the judiciary as well as the police forces across the country are also needed.

Similarly, land reforms must be tackled on a priority basis as well as attention paid to getting clean drinking water to people. Millions of children die each year due to contaminated water in Pakistan.

One measure of confidence in PTI’s victory can be discerned from the fact that the dollar to rupee rate dropped from 129 to 126 rupees to the dollar.

In order to attract foreign direct investment, especially from overseas Pakistanis, the PTI government has to address the issue of land and property mafias.

Many overseas Pakistanis are hugely frustrated by the fact that their hard earned income that they invest in Pakistan, is usurped by people, often close relatives.

They have no recourse to law since the court system is riddled with corruption and often takes decades to deal with such matters. In Pakistan, these are referred to as ‘Diwani cases’.

A complainant may die long before the court deals with the matter and then too, it often advises both parties to resolve their differences through negotiations.

If Imran Khan is serious about attracting foreign investment, especially from overseas Pakistanis that have hitherto been remitting some $20 billion each year (more than Pakistan’s export earnings), he must address their legitimate concerns.

China’s economic miracle was partly financed by expatriate Chinese investing in their country’s development.

In his address on July 26, Imran Khan said he would send teams to China to learn from their method of alleviating poverty (China took 70 million people out of poverty in 30 years) and fighting corruption.

He should add to this list China’s policy of assuring its expatriates to invest in the country.

Environmental pollution is another major concern, as in several regional countries. This also needs to be addressed.

Imran Khan and is party face a tall order of challenges. There is, however, no reason why they cannot succeed if there is a will and the determination to tackle them in earnest.

It is our prayer that the hopes he has aroused, especially among the youth, are not dashed again as happened following the assumption of power by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in 1972.

 

Zafar Bangash

Pakistan goes to polls amid fears about violence, manipulation

By: Syed Zafar Mehdi

Tomorrow, Pakistan has a tryst with history. Despite heavy odds and pejorative conspiracy theories, the people of Pakistan will exercise their right of franchise to elect a new government.

Tight security arrangements have been made for the election, with the deployment of nearly 7.5 million security personnel and 1.6 million electoral officials. There is an electrifying buzz on the streets, as people animatedly discuss which party will have the last laugh and who will be the deposed former premier Nawaz Sharif’s successor to the throne of thorns.

Known for their exemplary courage and resilience, Pakistanis are eager to defeat bullets with ballots and replace despair and darkness of yesterday with hope and light of tomorrow. However, not everything is hunky-dory. There are many hurdles and stumbling stocks. The volatile political environment of Pakistan means the election will be bitterly contested and there would be overt and covert attempts to manipulate the result.

Some serious doubts have been expressed by top political parties – including Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto – about the fairness of the election process and the ability of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the caretaker government in Islamabad to provide a level playing field to all the parties. They have alleged that the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) was being favored by the powerful military establishment. Interestingly, many senior leaders of PML-N and PPP have defected to PTI lately.

The independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), in a statement last week said, there were “ample grounds to doubt” the legitimacy of the elections and criticized “blatant, aggressive and unabashed attempts to manipulate the outcome of the upcoming elections.”

PML-N, which ruled the country until recently, has been hit badly after the three-time prime minister and the party’s lynchpin was sentenced to 10-year jail term in an anti-graft case, along with his daughter and heir apparent Maryam Nawaz. The verdict, which came less than a month before the election, is being seen as a smart ploy by the military establishment, which has great influence in judiciary, to prevent the party from retaining power.

However, the move might just prove a blessing in disguise for the beleaguered former premier and his party, considering the sympathy factor. Also, the party has strong hold on its traditional support base. Even if the party loses to PTI, it is most likely to win the Punjab province, which is extremely significant.

The intense political rivalry between PML-N and PTI is believed to be one of the reasons the military establishment in Pakistan decided to nail Sharif and leave his camp dispirited just before the election, which gives automatic advantage to PTI. Sharif, before going to Adiala jail in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, asserted that the elections did not remain credible and the results would not be acceptable.

So, unlike in the previous elections, when accusations of fraud, rigging and manipulation would be made after the exit poll, this time the judicial-military establishment has been accused of supporting Khan’s PTI even before the voting. In all likelihood, the post-election scenario doesn’t look too attractive. If there is a hung parliament, all parties would cry foul. If PTI wins the majority, other parties would claim manipulation. If PML-N races ahead, PTI would protest. The fault lines are deep.

Pakistan’s powerful military, which controls the country’s foreign policy, especially relations with neighboring countries, is believed to have been miffed with Sharif’s peace overtures to New Delhi and his endeavors to broker peace between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

In Pakistan, the democratically elected leaders cannot overstep the red line drawn by the military. Sharif did and he paid the heavy price. He was disqualified from elections and sent to jail, even when some candidates affiliated with outlawed organisations like ASWJ, who have blood of Shias on their hand, have been given tickets to contest the election. Muhammad Ahmed Ludhianvi, the ASWJ leader, was taken off Pakistan government’s own black list last month as he prepared his candidature.
Khan, who is seen as the military’s blue-eyed boy, single-handedly led the crusade against Nawaz Sharif government, calling it corrupt and incompetent. When the verdict against Sharif was announced, Khan was addressing one of his election rallies. He broke the news and his supporters broke into celebration.

In his massive election rallies, he vowed to transform Pakistan in line with the vision of country’s founding fathers and root out corruption by strengthening institutions of governance. While his cozy relationship with the military and Taliban has raised a few eyebrows, he has great following among country’s burgeoning young population.

Even celebrities and former cricketers like Wasim Akram and Waqar Younus have backed their ‘skipper’ with one of the top trending hashtags #BehindYouSkipper. But, what must have given Khan a reason to cheer is a public opinion survey done by Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) and Herald magazine that shows PTI in lead, followed by PML-N and PPP.

While according to most pundits, it will be a close fight between PTI and PML-N, the other party in the fray PPP is now a shadow of its past, with support base limited to southern Sindh province. The young party chief Bilawal Bhutto has been campaigning hard across the country but undeniably he lacks the charisma and mass appeal of his late mother Benazir Bhutto.

Meanwhile, the election is being held amidst a series of terror attacks across the country, which has created panic among the voters. Security has been beefed up to protect electoral booths and neutral observers have been appointed to ensure free and fair voting. But, as they say, the last word in Pakistan belongs to the military.