By Robert Inlakesh
Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara’a. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Design: Palestine Chronicle)
Although there is much more that can be said about the possible ways that such a situation could play out, these are some of the scenarios that could be on the table.
US President Donald Trump has been publicly pressuring his allies in Damascus to invade Lebanon in order to go after Hezbollah. What will come of such a move is going to have implications far beyond Lebanon and Syria, creating an unprecedented regional clash that will unleash unforeseen brutality.
Very public calls have been made repeatedly by the American President, stating his interest in using the forces that constitute Syria’s new army to invade Lebanese territory with the mission of degrading Hezbollah and taking out its weapons. Although Syrian leader Ahmed al-Shara’a initially issued two public denials that he was planning to order the invasion, he has more recently remained silent, even as the issue was brought up at a public meeting with Trump at an Ankara-based NATO summit.
Meanwhile, Syrian forces have been actively mobilizing and amassing equipment along the Lebanese border, a process that has been ongoing for at least three weeks and is being tracked by local media as well as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Of particular note has been the heavy presence of foreign fighters that have reportedly been sent to areas adjacent to the Lebanese Beka’a Valley.
President Trump contests that Syria would do a better job than the Israelis in dealing with Hezbollah – repeatedly bringing up the idea that instead of blowing up entire buildings, the Syrian fighters would be more surgical. While it may be true that they would not simply level entire residential complexes, the forces that could be invaded from Syria will likely commit very different kinds of war crimes.
What currently constitutes today’s Syrian Army is a collection of former al-Qaeda linked militia forces that were previously operating in the Idlib province of the country, for the most part. It is not a disciplined and well-trained military armed with precision weapons, and Israel destroyed most of the former Syrian Arab Army’s strategic weapons back when regime change occurred in December of 2024. Due to low troop numbers in its general forces, the current Syrian Army often bolsters its ranks with allied militia forces, who are not really accountable to anyone.
The reason why a Syrian invasion of Lebanon will be so dangerous comes down to a lot more than just al-Shara’a’s men. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has already threatened to intervene if such a war is waged on Lebanon. These Iraqi militias are much more powerful than the Syrian Army and will likely seek to take Deir Ezzor in order to open up new supply lines into the country in the event they are to get involved. Iranian officials have also threatened to strike the Syrian military if it commits to such a move.
Then there is the Lebanese Army itself, which would traditionally defend its territory against threats from Syria. However, the government in Beirut is a proxy administration of the US that has already sold out the south of their country by allowing the Israelis to maintain an illegal occupation and, as part of the same agreement, has pledged to disarm Hezbollah. If the Lebanese Armed Forces are to attempt a violent clash with Hezbollah, the Army will likely split, and a civil war could follow.
The US has sent a military advisory team to Beirut to aid the Lebanese attempt to do Israel’s dirty work for it. Speculation has it that the deployment of thousands of combat soldiers is intended to help support their proxies in the event of a civil war breaking out, although the unnamed sources claiming this have not yet been substantiated.
A very obvious consequence of such a war would be an enormous rise in sectarianism throughout the region, which will be exacerbated by biased media coverage. If al-Shara’a is seeking to send in foreign fighters, this is an indication of an impending sectarian bloodbath. We have already seen major attacks by Syria’s security forces, alongside allied militias, that resulted in the butchering of thousands of civilians from the country’s minority religious sects. These sectarian clashes even gave way to Israel taking advantage of the situation and backing Druze separatist forces in southern Syria.
Despite the lifting of the EU and US sanctions on Syria, in addition to Damascus recapturing the nation’s oil fields and agricultural lands, the country is in shambles economically. Corruption is rampant, everyone is armed, and militia forces de facto control their own territory across the country with the tacit approval of the new Syrian State. The murder rate has exploded since the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham government took over, with many of the extrajudicial killings occurring over sectarian disputes and others as a result of revenge attacks for crimes committed during the war years.
If these Syrian militiamen make it into Lebanese Shia villages, the results are almost guaranteed to be a repeat of the kinds of atrocities we saw al-Shara’a’s men carry out during the height of the Civil War. When atrocities occur, it will end up fueling animosity towards the other side, and there are many Arabic-language media outlets that will fan the flames of hate.
It is also not out of the question that Hezbollah may end up forming alliances inside Syria and could even go on the offensive itself. There are many armed groups across Syria that would rebel against the current authorities if they were given the opportunity to do so, especially if they were guaranteed compensation. Meanwhile, Israel would take advantage of the situation to carry out an air campaign against Hezbollah and maybe even some Syrian targets.
Although there is much more that can be said about the possible ways that such a situation could play out, these are some of the scenarios that could be on the table. As a result, there would be an inevitable mass displacement and possible refugee crisis.
It suffices to say that if Trump gets what he wants – on Israel’s behalf – we are looking at a terrifying escalation that can spiral out of control in so many different ways. Truly, for the sake of everyone, this war should never even be a consideration. It will only end up benefiting Tel Aviv if it does occur.
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.
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