Prof. V. Yu. Katasonov, Sovetskaya Rossiya
The likelihood of a happy ending is extremely low. That’s why Trump is rushing and making more and more mistakes.
It will soon be a month since the United States, along with Israel, launched military aggression against Iran; the war is still ongoing. Its duration has surpassed many of Israel’s major wars. In the summer of 1967, a brief but intense war broke out in the Middle East, later known as the Six-Day War. In 1973, the Yom Kippur War lasted less than three weeks (from October 6 to 25). Last year, Israel, with US support, launched an aggression against Iran that lasted from June 13 to 24 and was known as the Twelve-Day War. It is noteworthy that the United States has not yet directly participated in these wars on Israel’s side. America has provided only military, economic, and diplomatic assistance to the Jewish state.
“Peacemaker” Donald Trump became the first American president to directly involve American forces in a war on Israel’s side. On the eve of the current war in the Middle East, Trump orchestrated a special military operation to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The operation was successfully carried out in just one day and without American casualties. Apparently, Trump assumed that a joint US-Israeli military operation would be equally swift and brilliant, that Iran would be defeated and placed under joint US-Israeli control. However, Trump miscalculated. Iran showed no signs of defeat either a day after the aggression began, or a week later, or even three weeks later.
There are signs that America has become mired in a war from which it must urgently extricate itself. Otherwise, another Vietnam War could ensue (remember, the US’s direct involvement in that war lasted from 1965 to 1973, and America’s withdrawal from the war essentially meant its defeat).
Trump’s desire to escape from the current war is evidenced by his numerous statements such as “the enemy is defeated,” “the war is almost over,” “the end of the war is near,” “there is just a little bit left,” etc.
Thus, on March 9, in an interview with CBS News, Trump said, “I think the war is pretty much over, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they have no air force.” He also noted that the US is “way” ahead of his original schedule of 4-5 weeks.
The next day, March 10, at a press conference, journalists reminded Trump of his words about the war being “virtually over,” noting that the Pentagon chief, on the contrary, said “this is just the beginning.” To this, Trump, a master of doublethink, responded: “You could say both.”
On the same day, March 10, 2026, after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, Trump declared that the war with Iran was “virtually over,” as American military capabilities were being built up while Iran’s military capabilities were virtually destroyed. He asserted that Iran had “no navy, no communications, no air force.”
On March 24, 2026, Trump once again declared that the war in Iran had already been won and regime change had been achieved, as more than three weeks of US and Israeli airstrikes had killed many senior Iranian leaders and destroyed much of the country’s military capabilities.
Statements like these indicate that Donald Trump is trying to pass off wishful thinking as reality. Not once has the 47th US President given a specific date for ending the war with Iran. In public statements, he has used generalities about the conflict’s imminent end.
Despite the amorphous nature of Trump’s statements and the confusion of his mind, it seems to me that he still has some deadlines before which he must put an end to US participation in the war.
One such deadline was recently announced by Ynet (an Israeli public news portal and the online edition of the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper), citing an Israeli source. “The Americans have set April 9 as the end date for the war. Ending the war on April 9 will allow Trump to arrive on Israeli Independence Day to receive the Israel Prize,” the outlet quotes its source as saying. Apparently, this end date applies not only to the US but also to Israel. Surely Trump wouldn’t fly to Israel, which is under attack from Iran?
The Israeli and American press have already commented on this news. In late December 2025, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the 47th US President had been awarded the Jewish state’s most prestigious award. Until now, the Israel Prize had only been awarded to citizens of the Jewish state. Netanyahu invited Donald Trump to visit Israel on April 22, when the country celebrates Independence Day. The presentation of Israel’s highest award to Trump is timed to coincide with this celebratory event. It is clear that the war must end somewhat before this celebratory and ceremonial event, in order to restore some measure of order to the country after numerous Iranian strikes.
Trump, a highly ambitious politician, will do everything to ensure his awards ceremony takes place. He loves awards and other accolades just as much as money. We remember how, upon his second term in the White House, Trump eagerly anticipated receiving the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. And how deeply he was upset that he didn’t receive it.
Trump is currently bending over backwards to force Iran to sit down with the United States. According to unverified sources, peace talks between the US and Iran will begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, very soon. Israel is not participating. It appears that America will abandon its hard-line stance at these talks. Iran’s position, however, is becoming increasingly hard-line and uncompromising. Sources claim that the Iranian delegation may be led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, while the US will be represented by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law), and possibly Vice President J.D. Vance. Incidentally, Ghalibaf is considered one of America’s most ardent opponents in Iran. Therefore, even if negotiations do take place, the Iranian side will be less likely to listen and more likely to issue ultimatums to the American side.
Trump now needs to exit the game without damaging his reputation and saving face. He’s trying to convince everyone that the goals of the American “military operation” in the Middle East have already been achieved. Trump claims that America is already negotiating a settlement with Iran, which Iran categorically denies. In an interview with CNBC, Trump spoke of “excellent” negotiations with the Iranians. He also claimed that “regime change” has occurred in Iran, and that “completely different people” are now participating in the negotiations on the Iranian side. Therefore, the war can be concluded.
Few believe Trump’s fantasies. Ghalibaf wrote on social media regarding Trump’s fantasies: “Negotiations with the US never took place, and fake news is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets and get out of the quagmire in which the US and Israel find themselves.” Indeed, for a moment, the financial and oil markets reacted to Trump’s fake news (for example, the price of oil fell), but then everything returned to normal. However, the demands Tehran is currently making of Washington are difficult, if not nearly impossible, for the latter to fulfill.
General Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei, confirmed that the war will continue until the following Iranian conditions are met: 1) full compensation for the damage caused to Iran; 2) all previously imposed economic sanctions are lifted; 3) guarantees are received that the US will no longer interfere in Iran’s internal affairs.
Something tells me that a Middle East settlement won’t be reached before April 9th. And perhaps not even before April 22nd, when Israel celebrates Independence Day. Trump’s dreams of receiving the Israel Prize in the Promised Land will likely remain just that—a dream.
What next deadlines might begin to worry and torment the 47th president after his missed Israel Prize ceremony? I believe it will be the end of April of this year, exactly 60 days since the start of the American-Israeli aggression against Iran. In my article, “The State of Emergency That Made Donald Trump an American ‘Monarch'” (see Sovetskaya Rossiya, No. 30, March 26, 2026 – Ed.) , I noted that Trump made the decision to take military action against Iran independently, without the consent of the US Congress. The 47th US president is confident that he has every authority to do so. Trump has enjoyed making decisions without regard for the highest legislative authority. To this end, he has issued executive orders declaring a state of emergency in the country, citing various US laws, primarily the National Emergencies Act (NEA) of 1976. On February 28, Trump gave the order to begin military action against Iran without even an executive order. It’s safe to say that American troops began acting on the president’s verbal orders. Apparently, the president’s advisers explained to Trump that a state of emergency could be avoided by relying directly on the War Powers Act of 1973. It authorizes the president to use armed forces for up to 60 days without congressional approval. It also adds an additional 30 days for the armed forces to withdraw from combat zones.
Therefore, Trump is already considering how to wrap up US military involvement by the end of April, or at the latest by the end of May. This will save face, prevent Netanyahu from taking offense, prevent the Republican Party’s approval ratings from slumping ahead of the midterm congressional elections, and avoid potential impeachment.
As I wrote, on Capitol Hill, Democratic representatives had already raised questions about the illegitimacy of Trump’s actions related to the current war, but Republicans succeeded in defending Trump in the Senate. On March 5, the US House of Representatives also rejected a resolution to end Trump’s military actions with Iran. The Democratic-backed measure, which would have forced the US to withdraw troops, failed with a 212-219 vote.
But on Capitol Hill, in a month (if the war doesn’t end), there will be a stern reminder that it’s time to end the war. And if Trump himself fails to end the war, then the US Congress will do the same. Some members of the Republican Party who defended Trump in Congress may no longer stand up for him in a month. They will have to take into account growing American discontent with Trump’s military adventures in the Middle East. The latest poll by the Associated Press and NORC shows that about 59% of Americans believe the intervention has gone too far, while 45% are concerned about rising gasoline prices. Among Republicans, a quarter of respondents already consider Trump’s actions in the Middle East “excessive.” These shifts in American sentiment must be taken into account, as the midterm congressional elections are just around the corner.
Naturally, if Trump wants to look good, then the decision on America’s withdrawal from the war should be made by him, not the US Congress. And Trump really wants to look good. As a winner, not a loser. Especially considering that there are still important dates ahead that Trump constantly thinks about (for now, only to himself).
A particularly important date for Trump is July 4th, when Independence Day will be celebrated. This time, it’s not Israel’s, but the United States’. Moreover, the date is a milestone anniversary—250 years since the 13 states adopted the Declaration of Independence from the British Crown in 1776. Trump began reflecting on the July 4th celebrations and his prominent role in this anniversary event last year.
Another momentous occasion is approaching close to this date: Donald Trump’s birthday, which falls on June 14. And it’s not just any birthday, but the 80th anniversary of America’s “uncrowned monarch.” According to the initial plans (drawn up last year), the two dates were supposed to merge into one grand celebration and be forever etched into the annals of American history.
Trump desperately wants the dust of the war he unleashed to finally settle by the summer deadlines. But the likelihood of such a happy ending is extremely slim. Therefore, Trump is rushing, nervous, and making more and more mistakes.
No comments:
Post a Comment