What was presented in Washington and Tel Aviv in late February 2026 as a “limited operation” to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure had, by early April, turned into a full-blown regional catastrophe.
Muhammad Hamid ad-Din
The “Trump Strait” and Imperial Blindness: The Root of Failure Lies in Ignorance
The first and main reason for the disaster of American policy lies in Donald Trump’s head. The slip of the tongue he made during a briefing, renaming the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait,” was not just a comical gaffe but a symptom of total arrogance and profound ignorance of international reality.
The collective West, led by bankrupt hawks, risks going down in history not even as a loser, but as a president and prime minister who lost not just the Middle East, but the very right to a voice in the new multipolar world
Trump and his circle displayed a stunning disregard for the fundamentals of geopolitics. The U.S. administration naively believed that a few weeks of bombing would be enough for the Iranian people to rise up against the regime or for the leadership in Tehran to capitulate. As political scientist Robert Pape aptly notes, this is a classic “escalation trap”: “early success on the battlefield leads to strategic disappointment.” By destroying the B1 Bridge in Alborz Province (killing eight civilians and wounding 95) and threatening to bomb Iran back to the “Stone Age,” Trump expected terror and submission. Instead, he got “horizontal escalation”—a war spreading across the entire region.
Moreover, Trump has shown a complete misunderstanding of Iran’s internal politics. Airstrikes on civilian infrastructure, bridges, and power plants—which he openly announces—are prohibited by international law. They do not weaken the regime; they rally society around the flag. Iran, having survived eight years of the Iran-Iraq War and decades of sanctions, is a society with unique resilience to external pressure. The reported figures of 2,076 dead and 26,500 wounded on Iranian territory (as of this writing) since February 28 alone are not a U.S. list of victories; they are a list of U.S. war crimes—and Trump’s personally—which only harden the enemy’s will.
Military Profanation: “Precision Surgery” Turns to Chaos
The second reason for the failure is catastrophically poor military planning and a miscalculation of the enemy’s capabilities. The U.S. general staff, it seems, learned to fight from old-school video games. The Pentagon planned a “limited air campaign” but got a full-scale war of attrition. Iran has demonstrated its ability to launch massive missile strikes not only on military bases but also on the critical infrastructure of U.S. allies.
– Strikes on Kuwait and the UAE: Iranian missiles hit an oil refinery in Kuwait and a gas plant in the UAE. This is a direct blow to the economies of the Gulf states, which Washington considered its secure rear. The ongoing shelling of the massive Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar clearly shows that the U.S. has critically failed to provide air defense for its allies.
– Direct Strikes on Israel: Homes and cars in Israel are burning not from random “glitches” but from Iranian missiles. The Iron Dome is not invincible, and it’s increasingly failing. What will happen if the U.S.-Israeli aggression continues? The patience of Israelis—again placed by Netanyahu on the brink of survival—is not infinite. Sooner or later, the prime minister will have to answer to Israeli society, and possibly the world, for his actions and crimes.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz deserves special attention. The Trump administration, dreaming of seizing Iran’s Kharg Island (with its 31 million barrels of oil), completely ignored expert warnings. As Robert Pape writes, “Mining the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp escalation of the conflict, and de-mining could take weeks.” Tehran’s threat to “destroy” U.S. regional assets is not a bluff. The failure of military intelligence meant Washington was unprepared for a scenario where the enemy strikes not at tanks but at oil rigs and tankers.
The personnel chaos inside the Pentagon is also telling. Firing the U.S. Army Chief of Staff, Randy George, under hysterical pressure from Pete Hegseth in the midst of a hot phase of the conflict speaks to total disarray in the country’s military leadership. When the top command of an active-duty army is changed due to political squabbling, what “victory” can there be?
Why the “Axis” Failed: U.S. Economic and Diplomatic Isolation
The U.S. and Israel counted on isolating Iran but achieved the opposite. Their aggression has provoked a consolidation of regional powers against an unprovoked war and further American hegemony.
As follows from an interview with Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Tamim Khallaf, a powerful four-way bloc (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan) has formed in the region, working on a post-war settlement. Note: these countries have not joined Trump; they are discussing how to rescue the region from the consequences of American aggression. Egyptian President El-Sisi is publicly pleading with Trump to stop, warning of $200 oil and the collapse of “middle-income economies.”
Washington has found itself diplomatically isolated, even at the UN Security Council, where a vote on a resolution to protect shipping was postponed. Iran warned the UNSC against “provocative actions,” and the world heard that voice. Even the former head of MI6 (British intelligence) was forced to admit that “the initiative in the war has passed to Iran.”
China and Russia, whom Trump apparently hoped to buy off with “waivers on shadow fleet sanctions,” have not abandoned Tehran. The evacuation of Russian specialists from Bushehr is not a sign of weakness but a signal that Moscow is preparing for the worst, all while the Kremlin maintains a balance, preventing the U.S. from an easy victory. The failure is obvious: the U.S. has neither strangled Iran economically nor isolated it politically.
How Trump Can Get Out of the “Quagmire”: Options for a Shameful Retreat
The war has been going on for over a month (since February 28). Thousands dead, allied refineries burning, panic in the tanker market. The Trump administration has boxed itself into a corner. The original “surrender in a week” plan has failed. The option of “total victory”—a ground invasion of Iran with its mountains and million-man army—is not available to Trump. His ratings and budget couldn’t handle it. Secretary of State Rubio talks about a “1-2 week window,” but reality says the war could last for years.
What can Trump do? There are three paths. Two lead to the collapse of his political career, and the third leads to a “saving retreat” disguised as a deal.
The “Madman” Path: Escalation to the Nuclear Threshold. Trump could try to strike Bushehr or hit civilian infrastructure even harder. But this would guarantee a total blockade of Hormuz, strikes on U.S. bases in Qatar and Bahrain, and an oil price spike above $200. A global recession would land on Trump’s shoulders. This is the suicide path.
Shameful “Zero”: Withdrawal Without Conditions. Simply stop the bombings and leave, admitting that Iran has not been overthrown. This would be political death for Trump domestically (“You lost to Iran!”) and an immediate collapse of Israel’s reputation.
The Egyptian-Turkish “Deal”: The Only Way Out. To escape, Trump needs to use the diplomacy he so despises.
– Use intermediaries: Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are already ready to be a lifeline. Trump must formally ask El-Sisi and Erdoğan for negotiations.
– A “Victory for Iran” plan: As former Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif suggests, Tehran needs to be allowed to declare victory. The U.S. must agree to a ceasefire on terms that Iran can call “acceptable.” This could be withdrawing U.S. ships from the strait zone or lifting some sanctions in exchange for freezing the nuclear program (which, essentially, no longer exists because it was bombed).
– Make Israel the “Fall Guy”: Trump will have to publicly distance himself from Netanyahu’s most radical actions, blaming him for underestimating the risks (“We were dragged into this by our allies”). It’s cynical but typical of Trump’s style.
Trump must publicly announce a moratorium on strikes against infrastructure, sit down at the negotiating table in Cairo or Riyadh, and agree to return to the status quo with minimal cosmetic concessions to Iran. He needs to sell this to his voters as a “tough deal that saved American lives.”
“A Concrete Block Against Imperial Arrogance: Why the U.S.-Israeli War Psychosis Shattered Against Reality”
The U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran has failed not because of an unfortunate accident, but because of the historical idiocy of its strategists. This adventure was built on the sand of its own propaganda, where Washington and Tel Aviv mistook noise on social media for the real will of nations. Trump and his appointees have shown clinical ignorance: they knew neither Iran, nor its people, nor the capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, nor even the fragility of the pro-American Gulf monarchies, which cowardly sat out the crisis in their palaces.
Iran, contrary to the arrogant forecasts of Western think tanks, has proven not to be a colossus of clay with feet of clay, but a monolithic concrete block against which two nations, accustomed to fighting unarmed opponents, have broken their teeth.
Today, facts speak louder than bombs: the Strait of Hormuz is no longer the “Trump Strait” of which the vain ex-president dreamed, but a strategic bottleneck where dying American hegemony is choking and drowning in its own blood. Every day of delay in admitting this military-political fiasco costs the U.S. the last remnants of its influence in the Global South.
The only thing that can save the pathetic shreds of Washington’s reputation and its Middle Eastern puppet is not a “ceasefire,” but an unconditional cessation of hostilities on Iran’s terms and a transition to diplomacy through the regional heavyweights—China, Russia, and the countries of the Global South—who have long been writing the new rules of the game.
Otherwise, in trying to rename straits and threaten with missiles, the collective West, led by bankrupt hawks, risks going down in history not even as a loser, but as a president and prime minister who lost not just the Middle East, but the very right to a voice in the new multipolar world. Their aggression is not a mistake; it is a war crime and strategic suicide.
Muhammad Hamid ad-Din, renowned Palestinian journalist
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