Retaliatory attacks on Pakistani border posts signal a new phase in the fragile Kabul–Islamabad dynamic, just as India reopens its diplomatic doors to the Taliban government
The Cradle
While Pakistani authorities withheld official confirmation, the border clashes raged from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.
Border skirmishes
Pakistani forces employed heavy artillery and rocket launchers to eliminate Taliban posts in Angor Adda, Bajaur, Kurram, Dir, Chitral, and Bahram Chah in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed, with only nine casualties on the Afghan side.
Pakistan's military media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), contradicted this, reporting 23 soldiers killed and 29 injured, and claimed to have eliminated 200 “Taliban and affiliated terrorists” and dismantled multiple training camps in retaliatory strikes.
The clashes came to an abrupt halt after mediation by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, according to Mujahid. Pakistan, however, remained conspicuously silent.
During the Gaza Peace Summit in Egypt, US President Donald Trump also weighed in, declaring that once he secures a ceasefire in Gaza, he would turn his attention to “lasting peace” in South Asia.
Speaking alongside him at the same event in Sharm el-Sheikh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced his intention to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize – again.
Sharif praised Trump's role in brokering the Gaza ceasefire and a prior India–Pakistan truce, describing him as “the most genuine and most wonderful candidate for the Peace Prize” and saluting him as a leader who had helped stop “seven and, today, eight wars.”
India steps in
The timing of the cross-border violence was politically charged. The attacks coincided with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi's official visit to Delhi, the first since the Taliban takeover in 2021. During the eight-day visit, Muttaqi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar to revive diplomatic and trade ties.
India seized the moment to announce the reopening of its Kabul embassy, shut down after the Taliban returned to power. Taliban officials pledged that Afghan territory would not be used to threaten Indian interests, a message aimed at reassuring Delhi following past attacks linked to Pakistan-based groups.
Speaking to The Cradle, Mark Kinra, an Indian geopolitical analyst specializing in Pakistan and Balochistan, says, “The Afghan Foreign Minister, Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, provided security assurances by pledging that Afghan territory will not be utilized against India and vehemently condemned the Pahalgam attack.”
He notes that Delhi is preparing to expand humanitarian, medical, hydroelectric, and educational projects in Afghanistan, adding:
“The shift from supporting the Northern Alliance in the late 1990s, to dealing with the Kandahar Hijack in 1999, to backing the US-supported governments of Karzai and Ghani, and now allowing the Taliban foreign minister to visit India shows how international relations can change based on practical needs. The request for a travel exemption from the UN for the Taliban foreign minister underscores India's eagerness to host him and further nurture the relationship between the Indian and Afghan peoples.”
The developments did not go unnoticed in Islamabad. The ISPR issued a statement saying, “We have observed with apprehension that this significant provocation has transpired concurrently with the visit of the [Afghan] Taliban foreign minister to India, which is recognized as the foremost sponsor of terrorism in the region.”
Taliban defiance rattles Islamabad
Pakistan's decades-long backing of the Taliban has turned from asset to liability. Islamabad, once the movement's key patron, now finds itself under attack by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Pashtun offshoot with strong ties to Kabul.
Some critics even say that Pakistan played a pivotal role in bringing the Taliban into existence, with Quetta being the cradle that nurtured the late leader Mullah Omar himself.
Afghan affairs journalist Sana Ullah explains to The Cradle that before the Taliban seized Kabul in 2021, the region already hosted active militant networks, including RAW, Daesh, TTP, and Baloch groups. But the Taliban's refusal to rein in the TTP has pushed Pakistan's military leadership into a corner.
Throughout the tenures of former presidents Ashraf Ghani and Hamid Karzai, these militants remained active and continually presented a challenge to the Pakistani military establishment; nonetheless, the intensity of frustration among Pakistani leaders has surged to unparalleled levels in the present Taliban era.
“Indeed, the Pakistani military establishment has placed an excessive amount of expectation on the Taliban, anticipating far more from them than is warranted.” He notes that there was an expectation that the Taliban, regarded as a strategic asset, would comply with any directives given to them. However, this expectation was not met, leaving the Pakistani leadership in a state of both anger and shock.
Some analysts suggest that Pakistan's sudden escalation may be an attempt to pressure the Taliban ahead of any potential US negotiations over Bagram Air Base. But Kinra dismisses this as fantasy:
“If Pakistan really thinks like this, then [it hasn’t] understood Afghans or Taliban. No Afghan will compromise on its sovereignty, and that's why they have been fighting since 1979. Pakistan can act on US instructions, but Afghans will never budge.”
Kabul under fire
On 9 October, Pakistani jets bombed Paktia province and parts of Kabul, in retaliation for a deadly TTP attack that killed 11 Pakistani soldiers. Taliban officials accused Pakistan of violating Afghan sovereignty and warned of consequences.
Afghanistan's Taliban government has thrown down the gauntlet, accusing Islamabad of stepping on Kabul's toes and violating its “sovereign territory.” They have referred to it as an “unprecedented, violent, and provocative act” that has caused significant agitation.
The claim surfaced following two thunderous explosions that echoed through the capital late Thursday night. This infuriated the Taliban, causing it to threaten retaliation.
This was not the first time Pakistan had bombed Afghan territory. In April 2022, Islamabad struck Khost and Kunar provinces, killing 47 civilians and injuring 23 others. Pakistani officials initially denied airstrikes, as is customary; however, they later claimed that drone strikes originated from Pakistan's airspace and did not involve aircraft.
In December 2024, another strike targeted TTP hideouts in Paktia. Taliban officials said those killed were refugees from North Waziristan.
Islamabad argues that the TTP operates with impunity from Afghan territory. Pakistan’s intelligence believed that key leaders of the Pashtun militant group were based in sanctuaries inside Afghanistan, from where they planned and launched operations against the army before retreating to their safe havens across the border.
Pakistani officials claim they have repeatedly warned Kabul, only to be ignored due to the Taliban's deep ties to the group. TTP attacks have surged by 79 percent since early 2023, with escalating violence in 2024 and 2025.
Recent attacks include the killing of 11 Pakistani troops in Orakzai on 7 October, a deadly strike on Dera Ismail Khan's police academy on 10 October, and an ambush in South Waziristan last month that left 12 soldiers dead.
Pakistan's attempts to manage the Taliban through diplomacy, mediation, or brute force appear to be failing – and the blowback is landing squarely in Islamabad's lap.
No comments:
Post a Comment