Iran will respond to any activation of the trigger mechanism by adopting a hybrid approach and hybrid tools.
Samyar Rostami
South Korea, as the rotating president of the UN Security Council, submitted a resolution to the council members to extend the suspension of resolutions and continue the validity of Resolution 2231 .
Although Tehran called on the Security Council members to replace confrontation with diplomacy, the draft resolution proposed by South Korea failed on September 19. So, It seems that no major developments are expected until the deadline for extending Resolution 2231 and preventing the implementation of the snapback expires, and an agreement to extend the mechanism has effectively reached a deadlock.
Iran’s reactions
The sanctions that will be reimposed when the trigger mechanism is activated were imposed between 2006 and 2010, and now, with the possibility of their revival, Iran will have multi-layered reactions.
Iran is now faced with a series of obvious excuses and evasions. In addition, although Tehran’s recent “creative,” “fair” and “balanced” proposal to the European side did not meet with a positive response from Europe. However, Masoud Pezeshkiaqn and Abbas Araghchi, during their trip to New York, will try to prevent the return of previous Security Council resolutions with creative initiatives and solutions, preserving national interests, and focusing on the plan presented by Iran to the United States.
Therefore, cost-benefit calculations, a combination of smart policymaking, targeted diplomacy, preventing the escalation of the crisis, and preserving Iran’s national interests, will continue to be considered by Iran
It also seems that Tehran is waiting to prepare a practical initiative to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis in consultation with its allies, Russia and China.
Tehran has repeatedly stated that the West’s “threat-oriented” approaches do not affect Tehran’s will to protect its national interests. Therefore, if diplomacy fails, all options can be explored, and the West will be responsible for any potential risks in the future.
From Kazem Gharibabadi’s perspective, Iran has shown that it is prepared to face any scenario and will adjust its behavior, policies, and actions in accordance with the actions of the opposing parties. From this perspective, the Supreme National Security Council also has the necessary tools to counter the trigger mechanism. Iran will also take steps to strengthen its military and air defense system with the help of its friends.
From Iran’s perspective, the action of the three European countries in the United Nations Security Council is illegal, unjustified, and provocative. Because of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, the European parties have also been unable to implement their JCPOA commitments. Therefore, the full responsibility for the consequences of this action lies with the United States and the three European countries.
While emphasizing the pursuit of its interests and rights, including through diplomacy, Iran reserves the right to respond appropriately to any illegal action. Tehran also calls on other countries to refrain from any legitimization of the West’s action.
Recently, on September 9, 2025, Iran reached an agreement in Cairo on a new framework for cooperation with the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency after suspending cooperation with this agency. However, in case of activation of the trigger mechanism, the agreement will be canceled and cooperation with the agency will not continue. Therefore, Iran may begin to reduce its commitments, stop cooperation, or develop nuclear capabilities.
On the other hand, Tehran has repeatedly warned that it will respond to this hostile action if the Security Council sanctions return. In such circumstances, ending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are among the options on Iran’s table. Or perhaps, Tehran could strengthen its nuclear infrastructure to increase its deterrence and bargaining power.
Previously, the Iranian parliament voted to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and even threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In the meantime, with the official implementation of the trigger mechanism, the Iranian parliament will probably have a decisive decision and countermeasure to send a clear message to the other side. Even if withdrawing from the NPT serves Iran’s interests, it may be in order.
Over the past weeks, Iranian officials have consistently emphasized that the return of previous resolutions will not have serious economic effects and will not create stricter sanctions than those currently in place. Evidence also shows that in Tehran, officials are preparing the conditions for the return of the resolutions and have scheduled meetings to prepare for and face the new conditions.
One of Iran’s strategies against sanctions is to rely on domestic production and a policy of resistance economy. The country’s historical experience in facing sanctions has shown that Iran can neutralize a significant part of the pressures by utilizing domestic and regional capacities.
Many in Iran believe that Iran, relying on the resistance economy, the realistic outlook of the Pezeshkian government, and the capacities of regional and global diplomacy, has learned the art of “progress in sanctions” and is now ready to overcome the new pressure with richer experience.
Another of Tehran’s most strategic positions regarding the activation of the trigger mechanism is the development of regional and international cooperation. It was on this basis that President Pezeshkian recently considered the development of cooperation with neighboring and regional countries, especially within the framework of regional and international organizations such as the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization”, “BRICS”, “Eurasia”, etc., as a way to bypass sanctions. Also, President Pezeshkian announced in a meeting with the Russian Minister of Energy that the era of unilateralism has ended.
Given the recent positions of Russia and China, and the deep legal disagreement in the UN Security Council, a significant part of the international community is opposed to the return of Security Council resolutions against Iran. In addition to the support of friendly countries such as Iraq, Algeria, and Pakistan, Tehran is increasingly relying on the support of Russia and China.
Therefore, Iran will try to reduce the pressure of sanctions by creating and strengthening coalitions with like-minded countries, strengthening common positions in the Security Council and international institutions, redefining Iran’s relations with the international community, and increasing the importance of multilateral dialogues.
Tehran is also forced to adopt urgent foreign and economic policy approaches. Iran may partially circumvent some of the sanctions restrictions by using economic diplomacy.
Tehran is also likely to adopt approaches to domestic support by strengthening the sense of national security social stability and preventing widespread concerns, maintaining national cohesion, and unifying power.
Outlook
Iran will respond to any activation of the trigger mechanism by adopting a hybrid approach and hybrid tools.
Therefore, cost-benefit calculations, a combination of smart policymaking, targeted diplomacy, preventing the escalation of the crisis, and preserving Iran’s national interests, will continue to be considered by Iran.
Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations
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