The Russia-Ukraine war marked its third anniversary on February 25, 2025, and on this day, senior European Union officials visited Kyiv, emphasizing their continued financial and military support for Ukraine.
The visit by European Council President Antonio Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and other officials aimed to show that Europe remains committed to supporting Ukraine. During this visit, von der Leyen emphasized that the EU is ready to send new financial aid worth 3.5 billion euros to Ukraine. On the other hand, Antonio Costa described Ukraine's EU membership as a key element for the country's future security. At the same time, new sanctions packages were approved against Russia, and European countries reaffirmed their military support for Ukraine.
In this regard, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that a new military aid package worth 1 billion euros would be sent to Ukraine. Alongside this support, French President Emmanuel Macron also declared that Europe’s support for Ukraine would remain unwavering. However, these promises and actions are more symbolic than transformative on the battlefield, as many of these steps are aimed at boosting Europe's global credibility rather than making a tangible impact on the war’s field conditions. The EU's long-term promises to Ukraine highlight that these actions are more performative than practical.
While the war is directly over territory and sovereignty, Europe’s promises, as mentioned by von der Leyen regarding the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU by 2030, will have no effect on the ongoing war. In tracing the roots of the Ukraine war, it is important to note that NATO’s expansionism and security threats against Russia were the main catalysts for these conflicts.
Many analysts, including former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, believe that the West, through various agreements like the Minsk Accords, has been trying to buy time while simultaneously arming Ukraine for war. Recently, Donald Trump also stated that it was not Russia but Ukraine's actions that triggered the war, even calling Zelensky a dictator.
These analyses, despite European political and diplomatic assurances, reveal an uncomfortable truth: NATO and the West’s expansionism were key to the outbreak of the war. Yet, European countries continue to avoid taking responsibility by using Russia's warmongering as a pretext, giving themselves a kind of legitimacy to claim the war began for reasons beyond their control.
Field realities: Russia’s successes and Western instability
Reports from the field show that despite billions spent by Europe and the U.S., Russia has achieved significant successes on the battlefield. Russia has managed to control 18% of Ukrainian territory, with this situation stabilized in the eastern and southern regions. Recently, Moscow even announced the capture of a new residential area in Kharkiv province. These battlefield successes, despite all of the West’s efforts to weaken Russia, show that NATO and the EU have not succeeded against Russia. Additionally, Russia's economy, supported by economic and regional integrations like BRICS, Shanghai, and Eurasia, has managed to overcome sanctions and experience favorable economic growth.
Russia, utilizing its internal resources and new relationships with countries like Iran and China, has found new ways to combat sanctions and exit economic isolation. One of Europe's most significant challenges in this crisis is its inability to create internal consensus. While the U.S., especially under Trump, seeks to negotiate directly with Russia to end the war, some European countries, particularly France, the UK, and Germany, continue to support the ongoing conflict. This has led to internal divisions within the EU, as some European countries failed in negotiations over military aid to Ukraine for 2025. These differences indicate that the EU lacks strategic cohesion and cannot play an effective role in decision-making processes.
Europe's removal from future war and crisis calculations
While the U.S., especially under Trump’s leadership, is pursuing direct negotiations with Russia to end the war, Europe has effectively been removed from major geopolitical calculations. Europe is attempting to prevent this exclusion and strives to remain part of peace negotiations. However, it appears that Washington is reluctant to accept Europe’s direct involvement in this process.
Trump even declared that the costs of maintaining peace in Ukraine should fall to European countries. These developments not only place Europe in an unfavorable position but also demonstrate the continent’s global identity crisis, where it struggles to play an active role in global affairs.
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