As Israel escalates its warnings about Turkiye’s hegemonic ambitions and military influence in Syria, a once-strategic partnership is unraveling into a deep rivalry that could reshape the region.
The Cradle
The committee warned that this emerging axis could evolve into an even greater challenge than Iran, and concluded that Israel should prepare for a direct confrontation with Turkiye, citing Ankara’s ambitions to restore Ottoman-era influence.
Less than two months after the report’s release, the Israeli military launched new Turkish-language accounts on social media platforms X and Telegram, expanding its outreach to seven languages: Hebrew, English, Arabic, French, Spanish, Persian, and now Turkish. The move raises a critical question: Has key trading partner Turkiye become a direct threat to Israel?
From partners to rivals
In geopolitics, alliances are often temporary, dictated by mutual interests rather than ideological alignment. Israel and Turkiye once shared strategic cooperation in the 1990s and early 2000s, with extensive military and intelligence ties.
At the time, both states saw Iran and Syria under Assad family rule as common adversaries. However, as regional dynamics shifted, latent competition between the two emerged. Today, Ankara and Tel Aviv find themselves on opposite sides of Syria’s postwar restructuring, each viewing the other as a direct rival.
In other words, two countries can be official allies – or at least non-enemies – and yet compete for regional hegemony. This reality leads to potential tensions and conflicts, because each side seeks to consolidate its own influence and is seen as a threat to the other. The relationship between Turkiye and Israel exemplifies this overlap between shared interests – such as containing Iran – and conflicting ambitions, creating a delicate balance between cooperation and competition. Alliances are not static entities but evolve as strategic calculations change, especially when a political vacuum – as in post-former president Bashar al-Assad Syria – lures powers aspiring to regional hegemony.
Brookings Institution visiting fellow Asli Aydintasbas notes that while Turkiye and Israel previously compartmentalized their security cooperation and political differences, they are now actively working to undermine one another:
“Syria has become a theater for proxy warfare between Turkiye and Israel, which clearly see each other as regional competitors … This is a very dangerous dynamic because in all different aspects of Syria’s transition, there is a clash of Turkish and Israeli positions.”
Following the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel’s pursuit of regional dominance, bolstered by unconditional US support, has alarmed Washington’s allies – including Turkiye. Turkish analysts caution that this path could trigger broader regional resistance, escalating tensions across West Asia.
Israel’s perspective: The Turkish threat in Syria
Israel perceives Turkiye’s increasing influence in Syria as a direct threat on its northern front. Israeli officials worry that post-Assad Syria, aligned with Ankara, could eventually foster an extreme “Sunni Islamist” dominated government hostile to Tel Aviv.
This concern is particularly striking given Israel’s past support for Syrian opposition factions, including the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants now governing Damascus. Initially, Israel saw these groups as a counterweight to Iranian influence. However, with Assad’s ouster, uncertainty looms over the long-term implications of their rule.
In early 2025, an Israeli security committee warned that an extremist Sunni-Islamist-oriented Syria affiliated with the Turkish axis could pose a greater threat than the Iran-allied Assad government. “Israel may face a new threat of an extremist Sunni force that refuses to recognize Israel's existence in the first place,” the committee's report said, noting that this threat “may be no less serious” than the threat posed by the Iran–Hezbollah axis.
Adding to Israeli anxieties is the prospect of northern Syria becoming a sanctuary for armed groups hostile to Israel. Ankara’s ties with Hamas have raised alarms in Tel Aviv, with Israeli intelligence fearing that Turkish-controlled Syrian territory could serve as a base for future attacks. Consequently, Israel has pressured Washington to maintain sanctions on Syria, arguing that Turkish protection of the new Syrian government could embolden anti-Israel factions.
Turkiye’s gains and Israel’s strategic calculations
Beyond Syria, Israel views Turkiye as an emerging regional adversary with expansionist aspirations. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkiye has projected military power across Iraq, Libya, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Now, its deepening foothold in Syria further alarms Israeli Defense Ministry officials, who see Ankara’s actions as part of a broader neo-Ottoman agenda.
Turkiye is also mentioned 15 times in the Nagel Commission report, which warns that turning the Syrian army into a "Turkish proxy" could lead to “A radical change” in the nature of relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara, and may even portend a direct confrontation between the two states. By supporting armed factions rising to power in Damascus, the Israelis believe that Turkiye is turning Syria into a vassal state, replacing Iran as a dominant power, which is deeply worrying for the leadership in Tel Aviv. According to a report by Israel Hayom, the rise of Turkish-backed factions to power in Damascus has caused “sleepless nights” for Israel's leaders, who are now making Turkish activities in Syria one of their top security priorities.
Israel is also watching, with growing concern, Turkiye's military expansion in Syria and Ankara's advanced armaments capabilities. An analysis by Israel's Alma Center for Research in February warned that Turkiye could one day support an extremist Sunni proxy against Israel or provide direct support to the new Syrian army in any potential confrontation with Israel. Turkiye's growing arsenal of missiles and drones poses a direct threat, which requires Israel to reassess its military calculations, especially with NATO's second-largest army close to its borders.
Israel seeks regional hegemony, with no competition
While Israel frames its concerns around Turkiye’s influence, its actions in Syria reflect a broader strategy aimed at regional domination. Historically, Israeli policymakers have sought to weaken neighboring Arab states, creating a fragmented West Asia that ensures Israel’s security and strategic ambitions.
The concept of “Greater Israel,” often dismissed as fringe rhetoric, has nonetheless influenced Israeli strategic thinking. As Israeli scholar Yitzhak Shahak argued, Zionist ideology envisions an expanded Israeli state with borders shaped by biblical narratives. This vision aligns with the infamous 1982 Yinon Plan, which advocated for the partition of neighboring countries along sectarian lines to facilitate Israeli control.
Tel Aviv's rush for expansionism is evident in its actions on the ground inside Syria. After the fall of the Assad government, Israel quickly expanded its buffer zone in the south, bypassing the borders of the occupied Golan Heights. While Israeli officials have justified the move as necessary to "ensure security," the permanent infrastructure being built – from military sites, roads, and even settlements – reveals a more ambitious agenda. Israel has always taken advantage of the opportunities created by the vulnerabilities of its enemies, and has never abandoned the dream of expanding its borders whenever and wherever it has the opportunity.
Israel’s tensions with Turkiye over Syria can only be fully understood within the broader context of its regional aspirations. Whether confronting Iran, Turkiye, or Arab states, Israel’s primary objective remains unchanged: maintaining regional dominance by leveraging instability to its advantage.
As Ankara asserts its influence in Syria, Tel Aviv perceives a dual threat: one immediate, with armed factions potentially targeting Israel, and another long-term, with Turkiye emerging as a powerful regional competitor. Israel’s strategic response, from lobbying Washington to maintaining Syrian sanctions to expanding military presence in the north, reflects a calculated effort to counter both threats.
Ultimately, the contest between Israel and Turkiye in Syria is not just about post-war arrangements; it is a microcosm of a larger struggle for regional supremacy. As both states maneuver to shape the future of West Asia, their rivalry is poised to redefine the region for years to come.
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