Tahir Mahmoud
Anyone trying to apply normative political and international relations theories in understanding Trump’s next four years will likely miss the mark. There will be no consistent framework in understanding and analyzing American policies for the next four years as it will all be based on Trump’s personal feelings.
He is a loose canon with very limited understanding of geopolitics or economic principles despite his becoming a billionaire largely throught fraudulent means. This became evident, yet again, during his three-hour podcast conversation with Joe Rogan. At one point during the podcast, “genius” Donald was referring to tariffs from 1888 to explain how the tariffs framework will resolve economic issues in 2025.
While it is difficult to foresee exactly how his policies will unfold, it is possible to draw up a general framework of what the strategy of Trump’s opponents will be against his regime during his new term in office.
It should be remembered that during his four years in office as president, Trump will have to deal with internal enemies and external competitors. His internal enemies are likely to be much more vicious than the challenges he will face externally.
On the internal front, the US political establishment will attempt to derail and undermine Trump in many different ways. The track record of the US political elite shows that they will be ruthless towards each other.
A good example of this reality is how in October 2023, BBC journalist Sam Cabral while recounting the situation concerning the ouster of Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House of Representatives, reported the following incident: “Two Democratic lawmakers got into the elevator as I was leaving the vote. ‘Let the civil war begin,’ said one. The other laughed heartily.”
Another example of the internal challenges the Trump regime is likely to face is his predecssor Joe Biden’s authorization, during his twilight days, for its Ukrainian proxy to launch deep strikes inside Russian territory using NATO-supplied weapons. Even pro-western analysts acknowledge that this move will not yield a strategic advantage for Ukraine or NATO against Russia. As such, the most plausible explanation for this provocative gamble lies in domestic political considerations—an observation shared by both Trump supporters and critics alike.
Every economic, political and legal policy of the regime will be stalled and face a push back internally. This is to ensure that Trump appears incompetent.
On the internal front, since the US political system contains multiple contradictory mechanisms, the American political caste opposed to Trump will easily manage to camouflage their political war as legal and within the bounds of America’s archaic constitution.
Internal political chaos generated by anti-Trumpists will have a strong impact in the foreign policy and economic domains. Trump pledged during the election campaign that he wants to improve America’s declining economy.
The primary policy tool through which Trump assumes this will be achieved is through tariffs. While there are some economic gains the US can achieve via tariffs, Trump does not fully understand that there are winners and losers from opening a trade war via tariffs.
In the US, many multinational companies win big from the current economic set-up. Others will suffer from transfer of labor abroad. They will be the big losers.
For example, many US-based pharmaceutical companies outsource drug production to countries with lower manufacturing costs. This enables them to maximize returns while keeping domestic prices high.
Once a cornerstone of the US economy, textile manufacturing has largely moved to countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam, where labor is significantly lower. The US clothing brand Levi’s outsources most of its production overseas, thus reducing costs but it has resulted in shutting down domestic manufacturing plants.
The anti-Trump faction in the US establishment is likely to rally a segment of the wealthy elite who stand to be negatively impacted by Trump’s economic policies. Launching a tariffs’ war, will almost certainly lead to a trade war with China and others.
Trump does not fully understand that China has a huge domestic market and is the main trading partner of many countries in the world. China is also in overdrive to improving the quality of its products. This means that Beijing will lose less from a trade war with the US, especially since China had planned for this turn of events much earlier.
While Trump’s tariff policies are mainly aimed at China, Beijing is not the only target of the upcoming trade tariff policies. Traditional American allies like Canada are also on Trump’s radar.
The American business and political elite, which includes Trump, still carry the mindset of the late 1990s. They assume that other states are significantly weaker than America and fear Washington.
American economic wars are unravelling because the world trades with Islamic Iran, Russia, China and other US sanctioned countries. Other countries are no longer willing to forgo their economic interests to please the US. The American political elite are either oblivious or ignore this reality.
The above factors indicate that receivers of the US economic and political blows have multiple ways through which they can retaliate against economic bullying. Most importantly entities like BRICS, China and many others, have the political will to pushback against US imperialism.
America’s rivals understand that the Trump regime will lack coherence and predictability. This means that even if Trump attempts to make deals and calm tensions, he will not be trusted. Any deal that Trump makes and upholds it, might be broken once he leaves office.
Thus, America is no longer seen as a reliable partner or a rational state entity. This will make others far more reluctant in pursuing serious long-term political and economic projects with Washington.
China, Iran, Russia, BRICS and others are likely to formulate a strategy where they will deal with Trump’s caprices in unconventional ways. What those might be is yet to be seen but they will be formulated on a case by case basis.
Trump’s narcissism will be the primary factor in dealing with and understanding the US for the next four years. This is going to create an unparalleled opportunity for external parties. They will have powerful and determined internal allies willing to do anything to see the Trump regime fail. Trump will likely use this as an opportunity to weaponize the state system against his internal enemies. This will lead to a vicious internal circle of political turf wars.
Overall, from now on, America is all about personalities rather than institutions and policies.
During the last several years of Soviet Union’s “superpower” status the Soviet regime’s statecraft began to be formulated by Mikhail Gorbachev and his inner circle. The USSR was stripped of its ideological framework, institutional culture and strategic coherence. Something very similar is unfolding in the US today. The Trump regime will simply take this to another level.
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