By Xavier Villar
MADRID – Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, announced that the two countries are set to sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement that will strengthen their bilateral relations.
According to Jalali, the pact will be formalized during the official visit of Masoud Pezeshkian to Moscow on January 17, when the presidents of Iran and Russia will sign the document, which will include key areas of strategic collaboration.
This rapprochement underscores the mutual interest in consolidating an alliance that goes beyond economics, extending to educational and cultural management. In an international context marked by uncertainties, Tehran and Moscow are working to solidify their cooperation to face common challenges.
The Iranian ambassador highlighted progress in key economic projects, such as the North-South Transport Corridor, which remains a strategic priority for both countries. In this context, he recalled the recent visit to Tehran of two Russian deputy prime ministers, who met with the Iranian president and other high-ranking officials to discuss advancements in this initiative.
Russia has solidified its position as one of Iran's key strategic partners on both the international and regional fronts. Amid a growing rift with the West, particularly the United States, and in the face of political and military instability in West Asia, Iran has intensified its efforts to strengthen ties with Moscow. This partnership, bolstered by mutual interest in countering U.S. influence, has been pivotal in areas such as the Caspian region, further strengthening the bond between the two nations.
This strategic alignment has fostered a convergence of interests and positions on several fronts, particularly highlighting their collaboration in Syria. Both countries have aligned in their support for Bashar al-Assad's regime, allowing them to coordinate efforts in the fight against extremist groups and consolidate their influence in the region.
However, both external and internal factors pose challenges to the expansion of cooperation between Iran and Russia. The economic dependence of both countries on energy exports, their economic difficulties, and cultural and social differences have been significant obstacles to the development of their political and economic relations.
The impact of these obstacles is complex. On one hand, for Iranian leaders, even under Vladimir Putin's leadership, Russia has demonstrated that, despite its tensions with the West, it seeks to maintain peaceful and advantageous relations with the United States. On the other hand, the Iranian government views its hostility with Washington as "endless," a confrontation rooted in a political vision that challenges the traditional Western order.
During periods of rapprochement between Russia and the United States, such as during Dmitry Medvedev's presidency, the ties between Tehran and Moscow suffered a noticeable cooling, and Russia failed to fulfill some of its commitments. A clear example of this was the refusal to deliver the S-300 missile systems to Iran. These dynamics highlight that any shift in relations between the United States and Russia can have significant repercussions for the ties between Moscow and Tehran.
Russia's significance to Iran has primarily been on the international level, serving as a counterbalance to reduce the pressure exerted by the United States. In turn, Iran has taken on a strategic role for Russia in the regional sphere, particularly in West and Central Asia. Their cooperation in Syria has strengthened their mutual importance, solidifying a relationship that finds one of its main drivers in the structure of the international system.
Russia has leveraged its relationships with regional powers such as Iran to counteract the influence of the West. Furthermore, Moscow, as a power capable of institutionalizing its presence in the region, seeks to strengthen its global influence through initiatives like the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These strategies underscore its intention to demonstrate to the West that it is not possible to address crises and global issues, especially on a regional level, without its involvement.
Vladimir Putin's leadership has been crucial in the expansion of ties between Russia and Iran. During his tenure, political and economic relations between the two countries have deepened, particularly in the energy and military cooperation sectors. Putin's influence has been key in promoting common interests, such as their opposition to Western intervention in West Asia and their strategic collaboration in the Syrian conflict.
Iran has become the third-largest importer of Russian arms, after India and China. This military collaboration has allowed Tehran to acquire significant capabilities to address its security needs. Access to Russian military technologies, combined with domestic missile production, has strengthened Iran's regional position and its ability to counter Western threats, particularly under the pretext of its nuclear program.
However, between 2005 and 2010, relations between Iran and Russia went through a period of deterioration. The "reset" policy promoted by the Barack Obama administration led to greater cooperation between Moscow and Washington regarding Iran's nuclear program. This was reflected in the approval of UN Security Council Resolution 1737 in 2006 and the sanctions imposed by Russia on Tehran.
In 2010, Dmitry Medvedev signed the implementation of UN Resolution 1929, which prohibited economic relations with Iran, including transactions with the Iranian government and citizens. It also banned Iranian citizens from traveling to Russia for activities related to nuclear matters, intensifying restrictions against Tehran.
Between 2006 and 2009, Russia supported all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran following reports from the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency. In return, Moscow received strategic concessions from the United States, such as a halt in the development of a third missile defense area in Eastern Europe, the signing of the START-1 Treaty, an agreement for Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, and the revival of the nuclear pact with Iran.
Vladimir Putin's return to the Kremlin in 2012, following a constitutional reform that allowed him to remain president until 2018, marked a turning point in Russia's policy toward Iran. During Iran's negotiations with world powers, Moscow worked to reassure Israel that Iran's nuclear program did not pose a threat, acting as a mediator within the framework of the 5+1 agreement.
The election of Hassan Rouhani in 2013, with his promise to ease tensions with the West and resolve the nuclear issue, increased Russia's interest in strengthening ties with Tehran. This period also solidified regional collaborations in conflicts such as those in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, leading Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to describe Iran as a "natural ally" in 2014.
The outbreak of the so-called "Arab Revolutions" further emphasized the convergence between the two countries, highlighted by their firm opposition to Western interventions in North Africa and West Asia. This alliance, forged on shared interests, has redefined their strategic role in a region marked by profound political and social transformations.
Since 2015, bilateral relations between Iran and Russia have experienced a notable strengthening in political, economic, and regional spheres. After Vladimir Putin's second visit to Tehran, the leaders of both countries agreed to elevate their relationship to a strategic level, opening up new opportunities for cooperation. Since then, Iran has become a key ally for Russia, addressing its concerns beyond its borders.
The Western sanctions imposed on both Iran and Russia have been a key factor driving both countries to strengthen their bilateral trade relations. Iran, with its large population, represents an attractive market for Russian products and services. Meanwhile, Russia has worked to promote closer cooperation between Iran and members of the Eurasian Economic Union. For Iran, this alliance represents an opportunity to consolidate itself as one of the main transit routes for goods and services between the Union's countries and South Asia, with a particular focus on India.
Relations between Iran and Russia have taken a significant turn with the signing of contracts worth $4 billion with various Russian companies. These agreements, aimed at fostering investment, received considerable momentum during Ebrahim Raisi's administration. Iranian authorities believe that Russian energy companies, in collaboration with their Chinese partners, are well-positioned to manage Iran's energy sector.
Despite the strengthening of this relationship, Iran does not benefit equitably. In the context of international isolation, the Persian country collaborates with Russia from a position of necessity, highlighting the asymmetry in this strategic alliance.
Iran's stance on Russia's war in Ukraine has been characterized by caution and a delicate diplomatic balance. Officially, both state media and high-ranking Iranian officials have avoided openly condemning Russia, instead opting to justify its actions from a perspective that criticizes Western expansion.
Iran's position also reflects the complexities of its foreign policy, which seeks to balance its strategic interests without alienating its international partners or exacerbating its already delicate geopolitical situation. This complexity is evident in how, from the Iranian government and with the backing of its military institutions, the country has refused any direct involvement in the conflict, continuously calling for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine.
In this regard, former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated in Geneva: "Unlike the West, which has provided billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine, Iran has not supplied arms to either side in the war and does not support any faction." Recently, the current Foreign Minister, Sayyid Abbas Araghchi, made it clear in a post on the social media platform X that "Iran has not sent any ballistic missiles to Russia."
These statements underscore Iran's stance of remaining neutral in the conflict, rejecting any direct involvement but offering its services as a mediator to resolve the crisis, while continuing to promote the expansion of its relations with Russia in other strategic areas.
Thus, decision-makers in Iran, while maintaining multifaceted cooperation with Russia across various domains, express concern over the expansion of the conflict and constantly emphasize the importance of finding peaceful solutions to end the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.
Understanding Tehran’s stance on the war in Ukraine requires considering not only its perception of the changing international order but also the geopolitical implications of regional rivalries in West Asia and Central Asia, as well as internal political considerations. These factors have led Iran to collaborate closely with Russia, while simultaneously continuing to proclaim "neutrality" in the conflict, primarily driven by concerns over the potential repercussions of the war.
Currently, Tehran is paying a high price for its rapprochement with Moscow, while the benefits of this strategy are still not entirely clear. Iran has come to be considered a declared enemy of Ukraine, a country that, leveraging its international sympathy, is applying pressure on Tehran. Kyiv has intensified its lobbying efforts to attract allies against Iran.
Finally, it is worth noting that, although during the election campaign the government of Masoud Pezeshkian mentioned the possibility of revisiting relations with Russia, everything points to the fact that, given the regional context and the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House, both countries will continue to view each other as strategic allies.
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