Crescent International
As Carl von Clausewitz said, war is “an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.”
From day one of the Aqsa Flood, Crescent International has maintained that liberation of Palestine is a process, not an event.
This process continues and it is crucial to understand it holistically without losing sight of the broader picture by focusing merely on news headlines.
Every boxer wishes to land a knockout punch in the first round, but experienced and determined fighters understand the need to adapt their goals and adjust their fighting stances as the match progresses.
What truly sets a seasoned boxer apart from a novice is not just skill, but the resilience and determination to maintain their zeal even as the fight stretches into a grueling, drawn-out battle.
For a real-world example of this principle, one can look at the history of the Afghans or Algerians—both people who demonstrated remarkable endurance and adaptability in prolonged struggles against powerful adversaries.
Wars are not a computer game where the victor is only determined by a kill ratio.
America had a significantly favorable kill ratio during the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars, yet the US lost both.
In the ongoing regional war in Palestine, the Axis of Resistance had certain tactical and strategic goals they aimed to achieve.
Some of those have been achieved, others are pending.
The same framework applies to the US-Israel-GCC trio.
It should be kept in mind that the regional war is still ongoing.
Its fronts are simply acquiring different characteristics.
With the above in mind, lets first have a look at what Hizbullah did not achieve.
Hizbullah did not manage to stop Israeli-led genocide in Gaza.
Even though this was not its publicly declared objective, this was Hizbullah’s maximalist goal.
On October 8, 2023, Hizbullah characterized its actions against Israel as a support front to Gaza.
Islamic Resistance in Lebanon was also not able to force Israel to accept a cessation of hostilities in Gaza first.
This goal Hizbullah declared publicly.
The above listed tactical failures of Hizbullah are evident and constitute a significant political setback.
A broader understanding of the ongoing regional war is needed to understand why Hizbullah failed in these two objectives.
No well-informed entity, including Hizbullah and Hamas, assumed that they will be able to score an outright military victory over Israel/US.
During his speech on November 3, 2023, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah openly admitted that the resistance does not have the power to deliver a knockout blow to Israel/US.
A war against Israel is a war with the US first and foremost.
The military component of the regional war in Palestine was and is simply a component of the struggle to dismantle apartheid Israel, it is not the primary component in achieving this goal.
Apart from Islamic Iran, other members of the Axis of Resistance lack sizable, mechanized divisions to inflict conventional military damage on the US-Israel duo in Palestine.
So, what did Hizbullah achieve?
For 14 months, Hizbullah has been hammering Israel’s strategic military sites, significantly degrading its military infrastructure.
At no time in its history did the zionist regime face a situation where its military infrastructure was under daily barrage.
Hizbullah also demonstrated that Israel, NATO regimes and their multibillion-dollar weapons industry can be fought against and have damage inflicted upon them.
This is a paradigm shift.
Gone are the days when Israel could mass murder people with impunity.
Hizbullah fought Israel and the cabal of western regimes to a standstill.
When this fact is considered within the broader global context, namely, western military-political setbacks against Russia and economic difficulties against China, Hizbullah’s achievement of a stalemate is an important geopolitical event.
From a tactical perspective, another important gain Hizbullah achieved appears paradoxical.
Being subjected to significant Israeli/American blows, the resistance discovered its weaknesses which it would otherwise may not have known.
Hizbullah is not a conventional army and does not aim to be one.
It does not have the resources, and it would be a disadvantage to Hizbullah due to the objectives it is aiming to achieve.
The movement seems to understand this phenomenon well.
Also, by signing on to cessation of hostilities Hizbullah fractured the Israeli society and its political establishment.
This will play as a long-term advantage for Hizbullah and its allies.
Where do we go from here?
As pointed out by war criminal Henry Kissinger in the January 1969 issue of Foreign Affairs, “the conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.”
Hizbullah is still present and remains the biggest tangible challenge for Israel.
This reality has not changed and will not change.
This was Israel and the US’s strategic goal but they failed to achieve.
The biggest failure of US/Israel is not a tangible one, but a non-tangible one.
For decades Israel and western regimes have been financing a political campaign to undermine the image of Islamic movements and promote western secularism in West Asia.
The war in Gaza completely unmasked the Machiavellian and morally bankrupt essence of western regimes.
It was the region’s Islamic movements which did not stoop to the level of western regimes to back genocide.
By aiding and abetting genocide, western secular regimes have ended up on the wrong side of history.
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