Change in Europe’s Political Approach to the Ukraine War

Strategic Council Online - Opinion: Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region and seizing part of Russian territory is a turning point in the two-and-a-half-year war between Russia and Ukraine. In a full-scale psychological war, the United States and some European governments claimed that Iran was sending ballistic missiles to Russia. The claim aimed at putting pressure on Tehran and, in the meantime, justify arming Ukraine with long-range missiles from the United States and Europe. This is even though the Islamic Republic of Iran has clearly stated that it has not provided Russia with any missiles.

Morteza Makki – expert on European issues

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, thought that he could use this surprise operation as a trump card in peace negotiations and force the Russians to trade land for land. However, this operation in the Kursk region of Russia did not meet the expectations of the president of Ukraine to the extent that Zelensky made changes in the cabinet. Russia’s reaction and intensification of air and ground attacks followed. In the field, Russia made advances on the eastern front.

At the same time, the European governments in support of Ukraine considered the entry of this country’s army into Russian territory as Ukraine’s right to defend itself. Considering that his expectations were not met during the operation in the Kursk region, the president of Ukraine made extensive political moves to convince the United States and European governments to supply Kiev with long-range missiles to attack deep in Russian territory. Of course, the positions of the United States and European governments in this regard are not very clear.

In the current situation, for the United States and the European Troika, pressuring Iran and pursuing Iranophobia is a major goal, and they use every opportunity to implement this policy. But in the political arena of the war in Ukraine, the European governments are well aware of the consequences and threats that arming Ukraine with long-range ballistic missiles to target the depths of Russian soil will bring to Europe’s security. Putin has announced that this action of the Western governments is the direct and official entry of NATO into the war with Russia. Meanwhile, the European governments do not want to enter into a direct confrontation with this country in a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine.

Another important variable in the Ukraine war that has prompted European governments to oppose the supply of long-range missiles to Kiev is the American election. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has announced that if he wins the election, his first priority will be to end the war in Ukraine. These conditions have put the field and political arena of war in Ukraine in a complicated and difficult situation.

In such a complex situation, the European governments, especially Germany and France, as the driving engine and the largest arms exporters in Europe, send signals to Ukraine to talk with Putin and start peace talks with the participation of Russia, along with all-round support for Ukraine. In this regard, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz has announced that any peace conference in the future for the war in Ukraine must be with the participation of Russia; Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has also changed his position and called for a review of relations with Russia. In a statement, the President of France emphasized the need for a new world order and stressed that Europe should reconsider its current relations with Russia to establish peace and stability in this continent.

At the end of March last year, Macron called to send troops to Ukraine, but he said he was ready to talk with Putin on any topic of interest. These positions show that the political atmosphere in Europe is in the direction of fundamental changes regarding the war in Ukraine.