On the other side, the case of Israeli war on Gaza after October 7 attack is still not closed and its scope is expanding day by day, something making it highly likely to spiral into a massive regional war. Therefore, Operation Al-Aqsa Storm and the Gaza war, with its various consequences for the Palestinian and Israeli sides and for the region with the involvement of regional and international actors, is still a subject for analysis and future predictions and speculations.
To answer questions about this one-year war, Alwaght has talked to Saadullah Zaree, the head of the Tehran-based Andishe Sazan-e-Nour Institute for Strategic Studies.
Alwaght: A year after Operation Al-Aqsa Storm and the catastrophic war imposed on Gaza, many may ask this question: Was this a right action by Hamas and what are its outcomes for the Palestinians?
Zaree: If we listen to the remarks of the Israeli officials and want to evaluate the Operation Al-Aqsa Storm based on the Israeli reactions, we can see that they think that on October 7, an unprecedented, strategic, and highly effective development took place, putting Israel in the front of two choices: Choosing to live by waging a massive war and using force or dying, becoming passive, and being driven out of the scene.
Therefore, the Israeli enemy who is the target of this operation gives a very high score to the actions of the Palestinians and believes that the Palestinian groups turned the tide in their favor with this operation, and the Israeli regime now finds itself in a state of life and death. On the other hand, we see that the war in Gaza destroyed all regional projects of peace and Arab compromises to this regime, and the belief that peace can be established between Palestine and Israel has disappeared on the world stage, making it clear that peace with Israel cannot be concluded.
Actually, what happened on October 7 was that the Palestinian-Israeli balance, which was moving ahead with the superiority of Tel Aviv, was reversed and the Palestinian position was upgraded in the eyes of the public opinion, in the world politics, and also on the negotiating table.
Although the Palestinians paid a high cost for this position, the fact is that these costs have been paid since 1920, and the Palestinians always faced these conditions and suffered casualties. Given the volume of damage and number of deaths, we can say that the crimes commited by the Israeli regime over decades were commited this time within a year.
Some people look at just the face of the case, arguing that Gaza has been destroyed and Palestinians have suffered more casualties. They do look at the admissions of the Israelis who say the tip of the scale is now in favor of the Palestinian resistance. One of the most frequent debates in the Arab media in recent years is that the Operation Al-Aqsa Storm was the result of the failure of the Oslo Accords, and the reason behind the formation of the intifada is the failure to fulfill the terms of agreements by Israel and create an average living conditions for the Palestinians, and it is not that the Palestinians were deprived of an average life because of their intifada.
Alwaght: Has Israel managed to overcome the crises caused by Hamas attack and in other words return to the pre-war conditions through waging war on Gaza and assassinating resistance leaders?
Zaree: The Israelis and Westerners have answered this question. It is that Israel has not returned to before October 7. It has moved 76 years back and is now fighting in Gaza and Lebanon for its existence and saving the status quo before October 7, not for expansion of its occupation. So, Israel has never returned to October 6 and despite massive ruins its bombardment caused, its existence is not secured and many threats are posed to it by the Resistance camp.
Alwaght: what lesson and reality do the world public learn about the international organizations after a year of blatant Israeli crimes and genocide in Gaza and observing the performance of the international community?
Zaree: Separate from the serious criticism we have against the the international institutions, we can suggest that the Western countries did not provide to Tel Aviv the help the Israeli leaders expected from them. For example, the recent remarks by the French President Emmanuel Macron about ban of weapons delivery to Israel or 200 percent increase in the opposition to Israel in the US are unprecedented in their kind. Though the United Nations Security Council's performance has not been in favor of the Israelis, Tel Aviv had not managed to use this body in its favor. Additionally, the International Criminal Court issued rulings against the Israeli leaders in an unprecedented move and they never thought one day would come when the institutions that founded Israel turn against it. We expect further pressure on Israeli by these institutions, but the actions they have taken against Tel Aviv are acceptable.
Alwaght: Many observers, even Western ones, describe Operation Al-Aqsa Storm and the result of the ongoing war as a decisive factor in the new regional and even international order, and they find the full US support to Israel as driven by this reality. Now, on its first anniversary, what clues of regional and international impacts of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm do we have?
Zaree: Now on the world stage, we have two ongoing wars; Russia-Ukraine war that goes on with Western support to Kiev and in other words Russia is in a confrontation with the NATO or even in other words it is an East-West confrontation. And the second war is in Gaza. Although the great powers of the East and the West are fighting in Ukraine, in the past month we have seen a series of stances taken by the West to the detriment of Ukraine. The Westerners announced that Kiev should recognize the territories it lost to Moscow as Russian territories in order to end the war. Or they announced that weapons supplies to Ukraine should stop, and all this happened under the influence of the Gaza war, because before Hamas’s operation, the Westerners believed that they should give more weapons to Kiev to resist Russia, and they even engaged directly in the war in a bid to drag the war into Russia an in general there was a Western escalation.
But after Israeli war on Lebanon, and especially after the Iranian missile strikes on Israel under Operation True Promise II last Tuesday, the European tone shifted 180 degrees and this new Western approach is the strategic impact of Gaza war because the Eastern and Western powers began to believe that the determining factor in the international developments is Gaza war and they find the result of war demise of Israel and since foundation of this regime was a strategic measure, its collapse would be strategic, too, while Ukrainian loss or even Russian victory are not strategic.
Alwaght: How do you see the outlook of war expansion?
Zaree: War will slowly expand, but it will not end the way the Westerners have predicted. It can last two to five years, but it will not involve the whole region, because Iranian and Western policy is not in favor of expansion of war.
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