Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine on the Ukraine War

Strategic Council Online - Interview: An expert on international issues said that Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war comes with a "deterrence" approach because the Russians currently have no ground for using nuclear weapons.

In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Mahmoud Shouri talked about the threat of the Russian authorities to change the nuclear doctrine of this country due to the support of the United States and Europe for Ukraine and equipping it with all kinds of weapons and ballistic missiles: the possible use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war is not a new issue considering that in recent months this issue has been raised by Putin and other Russian officials.

He continued: In June 2020, the Russians announced that they intend to reconsider their nuclear doctrine because if an attack on Ukraine with conventional weapons poses a serious threat to Russia and its allies, it will push Moscow to a nuclear response.

In the past, Russia’s approach was that if there were a nuclear attack on Russia, it would respond with nuclear weapons. Still, recently, they have somehow reduced the level of using nuclear weapons and announced that any type of attack on the territory of Russia and its allies – Belarus – will face a nuclear response.

This international affairs expert stated: Of course, Russia has never published its nuclear doctrine and will not but only puts forward a part of it in the military doctrine. During the Soviet era, no such thing as a nuclear doctrine was published, but Russian officials talked about this issue occasionally.

Referring to the Russia-Ukraine war and the change in Russia’s nuclear positions in this regard, Shouri stated: From the very beginning of the war, these points and Russia’s possible use of nuclear weapons were discussed, and from time to time, the leaders of both sides expressed their positions regarding the possibility of a war in Ukraine and have stated that it will lead to a nuclear war. There is a point of view in Russia about the use of nuclear weapons which is based on the “aggressive” point of view;

Some Russian experts and analysts believe that to end the war in Ukraine, Russia will have to use tactical nuclear weapons because continuing the war in this way is not in Russia’s interest and will weaken this country in the long run. They believe that Russia must make an important strategic decision to end the war in Ukraine, and that is tactical nuclear action.

He pointed out that although the Russian authorities have raised the issue of change or flexibility in the nuclear doctrine, the Russian President has neither rejected nor confirmed this issue.

Shouri said: Another view of using nuclear weapons in Russia is based on the “deterrent” and “defensive” approach. Analysts who agree with this point of view believe that if the West allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles and Ukraine or any other country uses long-range conventional weapons that would endanger Russia’s security, Moscow will have the right to respond to these attacks with nuclear weapons. Russia says that it cannot tell whether missiles fired against it are conventional or nuclear, so it considers any missile that is fired as a nuclear attack.

This expert on international issues stated: It is evident that this view is an attempt to deter so that the West does not allow Ukraine to target the depth of Russian soil with its weapons.