Riyadh’s once stealthy pursuit of normalization with Tel Aviv is becoming increasingly overt, driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambition to secure his future throne. It is a task that has become infinitely more difficult since 7 October 2023.
The Cradle
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So why, then, does the crown prince insist on trudging down this unpopular path unless he believes that establishing ties with Israel is crucial for securing his ascendency to the Saudi throne?
Earlier this week, Politico revealed new details about these secretive negotiations, including multiple US commitments to Riyadh. These US assurances range from security guarantees through a treaty to assistance with a civilian nuclear program and economic investments in technology.
However, Tel Aviv remains resistant to including a credible path for establishing a Palestinian state as part of a deal, a key demand from the Saudis.
A history of quiet diplomatic moves
Normalization with Saudi Arabia is no less important for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has considered the deal a major diplomatic goal since before his re-election in 2022. Prior to last year’s Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Netanyahu believed the deal was imminent.
Today, the situation remains complex, with the deal's fate hanging in the balance due to conflicting conditions and demands set by Saudi Arabia, the US, and Israel.
The roots of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel stretch back several decades, with a history of covert diplomatic dealings often referred to as ‘soft normalization.’
Since his appointment as Riyadh’s ambassador to Washington in 1983, Prince Bandar bin Sultan Al-Saud laid the groundwork for this gradual rapprochement, meeting with Israeli political and security leaders over the years. His successor, Turki al-Faisal, continued these efforts, becoming a key point man in Saudi–Israeli contacts.
Anwar Eshki, who served as his predecessor and was an adviser to Prince Bandar, participated in seminars promoting normalization and paid his first visit to the occupied territories in 2016.
A pivotal moment in this covert relationship took place in 2019 when MbS hosted a delegation of evangelical figures supporting the Zionist project led by Joel Rosenberg. The meeting, along with subsequent secret talks between MbS and Netanyahu in NEOM in 2020, marked a notable step toward open normalization. Over time, such meetings and visits became routine, with Saudi officials and citizens increasingly engaging with Israel, including making public visits to the occupied territories.
Repressive measures and strategic interests
The two states share several strategic goals. Saudi Arabia is opposed to the regional Axis of Resistance, which includes Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Ansarallah, Hamas, and other non-state actors, and has implemented repressive measures against the Palestinian resistance. The kingdom has for years targeted supporters of Hamas and individuals funneling funds to the Palestinian territories. This includes the arrest of more than 60 Palestinians in 2019, some of them Hamas officials and Saudi nationals who received lengthy prison terms.
As recently as May, Saudi Arabia stepped up its campaign to arrest social media users in the kingdom who attacked Israel online – this after more than 34,000 Palestinians had been killed in relentless Israeli airstrikes on population centers.
From the sidelines, Saudi Arabia has also supported the normalization efforts of Bahrain and Sudan while offering the occupied West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) economic incentives to collaborate further with Israel.
Since its inception, the kingdom has utilized Islam to legitimize its political actions, and this Saudi soft normalization with Israel is no exception, with Muhammad bin Abdul Karim bin Abdulaziz Al-Issa, Secretary General of the Muslim World League, playing a key role in promoting religious normalization.
Since 2017, Al-Issa has championed the cause of interfaith dialogue as a gateway for furthering religious ties with Israel. His 2020 visit to Auschwitz and subsequent meetings with Israeli and Jewish leaders were part of this broader strategy.
US Special Envoy for Monitoring and Combating Anti-Semitism, Deborah Lipstadt, also met with Saudi officials in the kingdom, and a delegation of American Jewish leaders visited to promote normalization. Areas of soft normalization included Saudi Arabia’s hosting of Rabbi Yaakov Herzog, a former Israeli artillery soldier and an extremist Zionist advocate of the demolition of the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The rabbi seeks to stir controversy through his activities, including a visit to the mosque and the cemetery of martyrs of Uhud in Medina.
Security and economic ties with Israel
Unsurprisingly, Riyadh and Tel Aviv have worked to enhance their security cooperation – a significant aspect of their relationship today. As the world’s largest arms importer, Saudi Arabia has sought to enhance its military capabilities through deals with the occupation state, including acquiring Israel’s flawed Iron Dome air defense system. Security relations have included joint military exercises and cooperation on cybersecurity, with Saudi Arabia relying on Israeli spyware to monitor and control opposition within the kingdom.
Speaking to The Cradle, dissident Saudi author and political analyst Fouad Ibrahim says:
Saudi Arabia views normalization as more than just a political project, as it also includes an economic project and a strategic project related to the future of the throne in Saudi Arabia.
Economic normalization is crucial for MbS’s coveted Vision 2030 project, which aims to transform the kingdom’s economy and institute social liberalization. The deal with Israel includes opening Saudi airspace to Israeli flights and encouraging Israeli investment in Saudi heritage sites. Jared Kushner, the architect of the 2020 Abraham Accords, has played a prominent role in these efforts, working to establish an investment corridor between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
Among the most ambitious projects is the fiber optic cable linking Tel Aviv to Persian Gulf countries, as well as a planned railway expansion that would connect Saudi Arabia to Israel via Jordan. Ibrahim contends that the Palestinian resistance’s Al-Aqsa Flood operation last October disrupted these plans, placing a whole host of these economic projects in jeopardy:
The Al-Aqsa Flood came and thwarted this project and disrupted it for an unknown period. Therefore, the Saudi regime, along with the US and the Israeli entity, was the first to feel that the Al-Aqsa Flood was directed primarily at the normalization project in the region.
Softening stance leading to soft normalization
Cultural and media strategies have played an advanced role in acclimating Saudis to normalization with Israel. Since the events of 11 September 2001, Saudi Arabia has worked on revising its education curricula, gradually removing references to Israel as an enemy and promoting a more neutral stance on the occupation state. Art and media have also played a role, with Saudi TV channels airing programs that subtly promote peace with Israel.
The media, in particular, has been a powerful tool in shaping public perception, with Saudi outlets often hosting Israeli officials and broadcasting reports from within the kingdom. This propaganda campaign has aimed to create a climate conducive to normalization, although public support for such a move has fluctuated, especially after the events of 7 October.
At the heart of the crown prince’s Vision 2030 is his desire to position Saudi Arabia as a global sports hub. The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, leads this expansive project by purchasing major foreign sports franchises and hosting international sporting events in the kingdom.
The sports sector has been yet another tool of soft normalization, paving the way for official Israeli teams to appear in Saudi Arabia, where they raise the occupation state’s flag and sing its national anthem. Official matches and competitions are held between Saudi and Israeli players, and the Saudi national football team has even participated in matches held in the occupied West Bank.
As is now glaringly evident, Riyadh’s efforts toward normalization with Tel Aviv have been multifaceted, involving diplomatic, religious, security, economic, cultural, and media strategies. While these efforts have made significant progress over the years, the future of this delicate relationship remains uncertain, especially with rapid developments in the region-wide resistance against the occupation state in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
The underlying strategic interests that drive Riyadh’s approach to Israel – security, economic growth, and regional influence – suggest that these efforts will continue, albeit with tweaks and adjustments, so as not to invite reprisals from the Resistance Axis, not least the Yemeni Armed Forces on Saudi Arabia’s restive southern border.
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