Crescent International
Prior to that, the Bani Saud were desperately trying to be in the headlines as much as possible.
This was intended to rehabilitate Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) image following the barbaric murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul exactly five years ago.
Currently, the Bani Saud have adopted a wait and see approach.
The dramatic events in Palestine have completely stalled the Saudis’ regional plans and exposed the regime’s pro-zionist stance.
An important question is, what do the Saudis want to achieve with their current approach.
More specifically, how the events in Palestine have impacted their regional schemes.
Let us begin by looking at the Saudi scheme.
For several decades, the Saudi regime presented its subservience to western regimes, especially the US, as a “reasonable” policy which allowed it to be seen as a developed country.
The Saudis tried to position themselves as the “Singapore” of West Asia and not Vietnam, which won its state sovereignty through a long struggle and immense sacrifices.
This approach appeared to work at a superficial level but anytime a regional crisis erupted—and there were many—the Saudis’ master-slave relationship with the western regimes immediately came to the fore.
This began to change in the last five years as the global influence of western regimes started to decrease dramatically.
This was evident for everyone to see.
After its humiliating defeat in Yemen, Riyadh realized that being subservient to Washington no longer guaranteed its wellbeing, be it economic or political.
The Bani Saud decided to get closer to Russia, China and more recently, Islamic Iran.
The Saudis quite openly began playing their new “friends” against western regimes with the aim of milking the US for as much political and economic support as possible.
The problem with this Saudi approach is that there is not much left in the US to milk.
The Americans cannot guarantee the protection of even their own troops or its strategic regional pillar Israel, much less provide protection to the Saudis.
Besides, there is no love lost between US President Joe Biden and MbS, whom he views with disdain.
The time is long gone when other countries had to worry about what the Americans might do.
The US now has to take into account the interests of others.
The ongoing zionist genocidal war in Palestine is a clear example of this reality.
Washington has to tip-toe around Iran’s interests and reactions.
The Bani Saud’s policy is heading into a dead-end.
The objectives they aim to achieve are unattainable in the emerging multi-polar global order.
A renewed unconditional and total western protection of the 1990s era is no longer feasible.
This leads us to a second, more central question: How will the Saudis’ unrealistic policy end up?
They are clearly aiming to increase their dealings with Russia, China and Iran, in that order.
Having betrayed them at their most vulnerable time, the western regimes will, sooner or later, punish the Saudis to disincentivize other vassal states from joining the west’s geopolitical foes.
This is already happening in a limited way.
Some years ago, the US openly declared that it will no longer back Saudi atrocities in Yemen.
This evolving situation will leave the Saudis with no choice but to get even more close to China, Russia and Iran.
Some American experts understand this reality at the transactional level but not at the geostrategic level.
To hedge their bets against being servants in a new regional geopolitical architecture, led by China, Russia and Islamic Iran, the Saudis are likely to “team-up” with another so-called Sunni Muslim power, Türkiye.
Turkish state system, be it secular or “Islamic”, loves its Ottoman grandeur and does not forget or forgive those who assisted in its decline.
Considering that Saudi princes lack strategic understanding of history, once Ankara realizes that they cannot make it without them, the Bani Saud will have to choose between the fate of their forefather Abdullah bin Saud Al Saud, executed in Istanbul in 1819 for rebellion, and sovereignty over the Hijaz.
While this dynamic will take some time to play out, things are clearly heading in that direction.
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