Afghanistan Under The Taliban: Three Years After US Withdrawal

Omar Ahmed

The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a dramatic yet expected transformation in Afghanistan’s political and security dynamics with the return to power of the Taliban. The fall of Kabul, similar to other US-supported puppet regimes in the Global South, exposed the fragile and unpredictable nature of US foreign policy.

This abrupt change has deeply influenced Afghanistan’s international relations, particularly with great powers China, Russia, and the region’s dominant power, Iran.

US withdrawal and its aftermath

The hasty US evacuation from Kabul left behind a power vacuum that the Taliban quickly filled. The withdrawal had been heavily criticized for its poor planning and execution, leading to a humanitarian crisis and an uncertain future for Afghanistan and its economy.

Three years later the fallout from this withdrawal has been significant, with far-reaching geopolitical repercussions. The international community, particularly NATO allies, faced a dilemma over how to engage with the Taliban government, given its controversial history and in light of ‘human rights concerns’—applied selectively as usual.

China and Russia

Since the US withdrawal, China and Russia have taken more proactive roles in engaging with the Taliban. China has strategic interests in Afghanistan, particularly in terms of economic investments and security concerns related to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Beijing took the proactive step to recognise the Taliban’s envoy and has maintained diplomatic and economic engagements, focusing on the potential for Afghanistan to act as a regional connector within the BRI framework.

This engagement includes discussions on infrastructure projects, mineral extraction, and ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a base for Uighur militants threatening China’s Xinjiang region.

Russia, similarly, has been keen on stabilising Afghanistan to prevent the spill-over of extremism into Central Asia and its sphere of influence. Moscow has engaged in diplomatic talks with the Taliban and other regional actors to ensure that Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorist groups like the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).

Indeed, the Taliban’s battle against ISKP has been a point of convergence for Russian and Taliban interests. Moreover, Russia’s geopolitical strategy includes maintaining influence over Central Asian countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, using its involvement in Afghanistan as a means to project power and stability in the region.

Evolving relations with Iran

Iran’s relationship with the Taliban has undergone significant changes. Historically fraught, especially after the near-war situation in August 1998 triggered by the murder of Iranian diplomats by the Taliban after seizing Mazar-e-Sharif, recent years have seen a pragmatic shift.

After the US exit, Iran kept its embassy open in Kabul and began engaging more openly with the Taliban-led government. The attendance of a Taliban delegation at the late former President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral also illustrated the warming of Iran-Taliban relations, despite deadly border clashes last year.

Nevertheless, pressing issues such as water disputes and ethnic tensions remain contentious. Iran has been particularly concerned about the treatment of the Hazara minority, predominantly Shia Muslims, who have faced persecution under previous rule by the Taliban.

The initial tolerance extended by the Taliban towards Muharram processions proved short-lived. There are reports that restrictions have been imposed on the Shia community during the sacred month.

Water dispute with Iran

One of the most significant issues straining Iran-Afghanistan relations is the dispute over water resources. The Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan into Iran, is a critical water source for both countries.

Afghanistan’s construction of dams on the Helmand River has been a longstanding point of contention. Iran relies on this water for agricultural and domestic purposes, and any reduction in flow significantly impacts the livelihoods of people in Iran’s Sistan- Baluchistan province.

In recent years, the Taliban’s efforts to control and utilize these water resources have heightened tensions. Iran has accused Afghanistan of violating a 1973 treaty that mandates a certain flow of water from the Helmand River to Iran.

The situation has been exacerbated by prolonged droughts and climate change, which have reduced water availability. Diplomatic efforts have been made to resolve these disputes, with mixed results. In October 2021, an Iranian delegation met with Taliban officials to discuss water-sharing agreements and other bilateral issues, but a comprehensive resolution remains elusive.

Domestic and regional geopolitics

Domestically, the Taliban have attempted to consolidate power and address internal security threats. The Taliban’s fight against ISKP has been intense, with the group targeting Taliban interests and seeking to destabilise their rule.

This ongoing conflict has implications for Afghanistan’s stability and its relations with neighbouring countries. The Taliban’s internal policies, particularly their stance on women’s rights and minority protections, have drawn criticism and concern from the international community, impacting foreign aid and investment.

Regionally, Afghanistan’s geopolitical environment is heavily influenced by the interests of neighbouring powers. China’s economic investments, Russia’s security concerns, and Iran’s political engagements all play critical roles in shaping Afghanistan’s future.

The regional dynamics are complex, with each country seeking to leverage its relationship with the Taliban to advance its own strategic interests. Additionally, Pakistan’s long-standing involvement also remains significant, albeit strained in spite of its historical support for the Taliban. After all, Islamabad maintains strategic interests in countering Indian influence in the country.

Three years after the US withdrawal, Afghanistan under the Taliban is a by-product of Washington’s waning global influence and the era of multipolarity. The Taliban’s relations with China, Russia, and Iran reflect a strategic pragmatism aimed at securing economic and political stability.

Yet, the Afghan government faces persistent challenges, from internal security threats to regional disputes over resources. The Taliban’s ability to effectively balance these relationships, while maintaining control internally, will be the true test of their governance.

Afghanistan