Shaking The Coconut Tree Of Global Politics

Zafar Bangash

That the global political architecture is undergoing rapid change is not in doubt. Old alliances are fraying or being dismantled while new ones are being forged. The outlines of the new landscape, referred to as the multipolar world order, are emerging. The old US-led unipolar world order is crumbling.

Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has hastened this process although it would be wrong to assume that he initiated it. The US pivot to the South Pacific was started during the presidency of Barack Obama. America’s obsession with China is the principal reason driving this change.

Trump’s unorthodox style has done little to assure allies including Canada, Mexico and Europe that he plans to play by the long-established rules. These were put in place by the US after the Second World War for its benefit but the cost is proving prohibitive. Trump has made clear that the US will no longer play by the old rules. It has rattled old allies and delighted foes such as Russia.

Let us consider what Trump has done since he returned to the White House on January 20, 2025. He has imposed tariffs on goods entering from Canada—America’s leading trading partner—and Mexico. Similar tariffs have been slapped on Chinese goods, although to a lesser degree. He and his vice president, J D Vance have led a broad assault on Europe calling them ‘free loaders’ and not carrying their weight by paying enough for the continent’s security. The Trump regime has served notice that the US would no longer foot this bill.

His disdain for Ukraine, especially its comedian-turned-president, Volodymyr Zelensyy has been expressed in even more stark terms. On February 28, Zelenskyy was publicly humiliated in the White House in front of television cameras. He was then booted out without being served lunch that was planned as part of the meeting.

The Ukrainian delegation meeting their American counterparts in another room, wanted to stay and talk. “No”, said Trump. Get them out of the White House; no lunch for them either. Zelenskyy’s humiliation left many people shaking their heads in disbelief, not that the Ukrainian upstart deserves any sympathy. He is a certified crook presiding over a vast network of corruption. Most of the hundreds of billions of dollars sent to Ukraine have been siphoned off to Israel, that other parasitical state.

If Ukraine is dismissed as a “burden” that Washington would no longer carry, Trump has called western Europe a parasite living off America’s largesse. He is not prepared to continue with this policy. At the Munich Security Conference, Vance expressed contempt for west European regimes. He lectured them about ‘lack of freedoms’ in their societies and insisted they must pay for their own security.

Will this last or end with Trump’s departure from the White House whether in four years, or sooner if the American deep state decides to get rid of him? Only time will tell.

What is driving Trump’s policy? The US is broke. Its debt has skyrocketed to $36 trillion, exceeding its total GDP of $29.17 trillion (2024 figures). Interest keeps piling up on this mountain of debt.

In the past, other countries financed US debt by keeping their foreign reserves in US dollars or purchasing US treasury bonds. This is also a form of subsidizing US debt.

The rise of BRICS and many of its members opting to participate in barter trade bypassing the US dollar has also had an impact. Several BRICS members are now dealing in each others’ currencies. Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and Brazil have opted for this.

The US propensity to freeze other countries’ assets and impose sanctions for opposing its belligerent policies—Iran, Russia and Afghanistan have all been victimised—have led countries to shed US treasury bonds and buy gold instead. China and Russia are prime examples.

Leading US treasury bond holders are:

Japan: $1.099 trillion;
China: $768.6 billion;
Britain: $765.6 billion;
Luxembourg: $424.5 billion;
Cayman Islands: $397 billion;
Canada: $374.4 billion;
Belgium: $361.3 billion;
Rest of the world: $1.589 trillion.

The dilemma facing the US is that regardless of how much it slashes expenditure—Trump and his minions have taken the axe to many programs—this will not solve the debt problem. Similarly raising taxes will not work either. Besides, it goes against the philosophy of Trump and his billionaire group of financiers and supporters. They are in power to make money, not give it to the government even if it is run by the vagabond.

So, what does Trump plan to do? He has embarked on the old method of pillage of others’ resources as well as lands. Thus, he wants to grab Greenland and the Panama Call and has already renamed the Gulf of Mexico as the ‘American Gulf’. And he wants to make Canada the 51st state of the US, much to the chargrin of most Canadians.

Concurrently, Trump has launched a ‘charm offensive’ toward Russia, hoping that President Vladimir Putin would respond favourably. Trump has as much charm as a skunk trapped in a cage, with apologies to the skunk. Will Putin fall for Trump’s overtures?

The Russian president is a seasoned operative and deeply nationalistic. He has not forgotten how Mikhail Gorbachev was lured into dismantling the Warsaw Pact countries on the specific US promise that NATO would not advance one inch eastward. No sooner had the Soviet Union disintegrated, NATO launched its eastward drive and its forces now sit virtually at the Russian borders.

Further, during Boris Yeltsin’s presidency, American multinational corporations bought Russian assets at throw away prices. Yeltsin was a drunkard and a bafoon. Putin was a senior officer in the KGB and watched these developments with horror but could do little to stop them. When he became Russia’s president in 1999, Putin went about reorganizing the state structure and has now reached the point where Russia has regained much of its past strength and glory.

As a seasoned politician, he is unlikely to fall for Trump’s honey trap. Russian commentators have also warned against this. Trump wants to turn Russia against China to undermine the latter.

China’s rapid economic growth and its production of nearly 80% of the global rare earth minerals terrifies the US. These minerals are essential in electric vehicle batteries as well as electronics and advanced missile systems. That is where the world is heading.

Greenland and Canada also possess vast natural resources as does dirt-poor Afghanistan. While Trump has threatened to annex Canada and Greenland, he has sent feelers to Afghanistan to mend fences. In return for diplomatic recognition and the unfreezing of its assets, Trump wants Afghanistan’s rare earth minerals, estimated at $3 trillion. This will also deny, or at the least, slow China’s acquisition of them.

China has a head-start in Afghanistan with multi-billion agreements for mining and other explorations. Road and rail building are also part of Beijing’s plans. It will be interesting to see how the Taliban respond to American overtures. Putin, however, appears clear about where he is going. America is no friend of Russia and never has been.

Donald Trump